Professor Henry Srebrnik

Professor Henry Srebrnik

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Why do First Nations Fear an Independent Alberta?

 

By Henry Srebrnik, Saint John Telegraph-Journal

The annual general assembly of the Assembly of First Nations (AFN) passed an emergency resolution on July 16 to protect treaty rights from threats posed by the Alberta separatist movement.

It states that no province has the legal authority to alter, reduce or extinguish treaty rights, or the constitutional relationship between First Nations and the Crown. Former national chief Matthew Coon Come declared that Quebec chiefs, who faced a provincial separation referendum in 1995, stand in solidarity with Alberta chiefs. “Their fight is our fight,” Coon Come declared. “Their struggle is our struggle.”

AFN National Chief Cindy Woodhouse Nepinak also spoke out at the meeting against separatism. “They’re not taking any land with them,” she warned. “That’s going to stay right here with First Nations people. This is our country and we say what happens.”

In May, the federal government launched 30-day consultations with Indigenous peoples and others, on proposed regulatory changes surrounding approvals for major industrial projects. Legislation would be tabled following the consultation period. This provides an implicit virtual veto power to First Nations.

Nepinak took aim at the federal government’s desire to fast-track approvals for major projects, insisting that economic development cannot come at the expense of First Nations’ rights. “I think if any project is going to move forward anywhere in this country, speak to First Nations people.”

No matter how the Alberta referendum vote on independence goes on Oct. 19, Chief Kelsey Jacko of Cold Lake First Nations said communities will be ready to protect their treaties, which pre-date the creation of Alberta as a province. “We’re going to be fighting in court,” Jacko said.

This poses an interesting question. Indigenous treaty rights do predate the creation of Alberta. But in many cases, they also predate the formation of Canada. They are, as many point out, with “the Crown.” In other words, to the time when the lands north of the United States remained under the control of the British Empire.

But why, if Alberta – and for that matter Quebec – seceded from the Canadian federation, would Indigenous peoples feel threatened? Would those new countries, as successor states, not inherit the same treaties?  Also, as we know, many consider Canada a settler-colonial enterprise guilty of genocide against First Nations. So why even take sides between “Albertans” and “Canadians,” who are equally guilty, in this conflict? Why protect a state responsible for such crimes?

On the face of it, one would think this doesn’t make sense. Clearly there’s more involved.

With the passing of the 1982 Canadian constitution, Indigenous rights are inherent and, in many cases, legally paramount. Since then, First Nations in this country have expanded their understanding of these, to the point where they are acquiring a form of “dual power” alongside and within the political system of Canada. It has become the case that major decisions, especially economic ones, cannot proceed without the approval of the native people involved.

There have been other examples of this around the world: Fiji, where ethnic Fijians controlled their own political organs in the Great Council of Chiefs, separate from the overall ones for all citizens, including themselves. This is becoming the case in New Zealand, where Maori in Aotearoa -- their pre-conquest name for the country -- are acquiring collective rights alongside the political rights of all others. In effect, they have dual political rights within two different political systems alongside each other. Other citizens are represented only by one.

Most Canadians seem to have forgotten that the Charlottetown Accord, which failed to gain acceptance in 1992, would have created an “Aboriginal right to self-government” enshrined in the Canadian constitution. It would have recognized Aboriginal governments as a third order of government, analogous to the federal government and the provinces and constitutionally autonomous from them.

The prior Meech Lake Accord also suffered defeat, in June 1990. Almost simultaneously, a major conflict known as the Oka Crisis erupted in Ontario. It was a standoff between Mohawk protestors, Quebec police, the RCMP, and the Canadian Army, that lasted 78 days. It was sparked by the proposal of development of a golf course on their Kanesatake lands, which included an Indigenous burial ground.

The dispute, which included two fatalities, was the first well-publicized violence between First Nations and provincial governments in the late 20th century. A political shot across the bow, it was traumatic in its effects -- a turning point for the Indigenous movement in Canada and a wake-up call for other Canadians.

The Canadian federation is now a multi-ethnic state, unlike in 1867, when it was created by “two founding nations, English and French,” in four provinces. (No other groups, including, notoriously, the many First Nations, were involved.) And in such entities, minority ethnic peoples have more say than in states based on ethnicity or religion.

The collapse of the Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires in the First World War resulted in the creation of nationalistic states, all of which proved difficult, and sometimes disastrous, for minorities. The disintegration of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia also created internal wars, and many remain ongoing.

Should Alberta or Quebec become homogeneous sovereign republics, they might even jettison the rights of Indigenous people in a new constitutional order. This is clearly what the AFN and other native groups fear. 

 

Thursday, July 23, 2026

Erdogan’s Turkey is a Rising Power

By Henry Srebrnik, Saint John Telegraph-Journal

If Iran emerges from the current war with Israel and the United States weakened, whether politically, economically, or militarily, Turkey’s relative influence in the broader region will increase.

Ankara has already consolidated significant influence in Syria and Azerbaijan, and it continues to pursue strategic projects across the South Caucasus. It has also been very active in the debates over the Hamas-Israel war in Gaza.

The recent NATO summit in Ankara marked an important moment for Turkey’s role within the alliance. It came after years of strained relations between Ankara and several of its NATO partners, especially the United States, following a period marked by disagreements over regional security, defence procurement and foreign policy.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hopes to soon reach an agreement with Washington on lifting U.S. sanctions that were imposed on Turkey that followed its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defence systems. As well, Ankara desires to acquire advanced F-35 fighter jets.

In 2020, Washington imposed sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), following Turkey’s acquisition of the S-400s. It also excluded Ankara from the F-35 stealth fighter jet program. The U.S. Congress passed a law requiring Turkey to dispose of the S-400s before it could rejoin the F-35 program.

The Turkish daily Hurriyet reported July 10 that Turkey could soon announce it would sell the S-400s to a Gulf country to persuade Washington to supply it with F-35s. Before President Donald Trump’s arrival in Ankara, Fidan traveled to Moscow, where he met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and President Vladimir Putin to gain their approval.

Turkey is now seeking Russia’s consent to transfer the S-400 air defence system, an effort aimed at clearing the way for the purchase of the airplanes. Currently, Ankara does not use the system despite having it in its inventory.

Meanwhile, Turkey has reportedly paused its planned purchase of 40 American F-16s and the modernization of 79 existing aircraft while reassessing its long-term fighter strategy. The costly program is now considered a lower priority compared with Turkey’s domestically developed KAAN fighter, and the F-35 acquisitions, according to Hurriyet.

Over the past decade, the United States and Turkey have differed sharply on some major issues, including the U.S. partnership with Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces against the Islamic State organization in Syria. Turkey purchased the S-400 system from Moscow during a period of estrangement from its NATO partners, which began during Barack Obama’s presidency and deepened after a failed coup attempt against Erdogan in 2016. That frustration became part of Ankara’s justification for turning to Russia. But the Syrian problem has lessened with the creation of the new, generally pro-Turkish, Sunni Arab government in Damascus following the 2024 fall of Bashar al-Asad.

Some Mediterranean states are not happy with the possibility of Turkey’s potential acquisition of new military hardware. Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias on July 9 said Athens “would not welcome” Turkey receiving either F-35 fighter jets or engines for its next-generation Turkish KAAN combat aircraft. Advanced American weapons should never be used against fellow NATO allies.

Greece cannot dictate the defence procurement decisions of third countries, but it has both the right and the obligation to present its security concerns to Washington, particularly given Turkey’s longstanding declaration that any unilateral extension of Greek territorial waters in the Aegean Sea would be considered a casus belli.

This news also worries Israel, whose own relationship with Turkey has been rapidly eroding since the start of the Gaza war, given Turkey’s continuing support for the Palestinian Sunni Islamist group Hamas after October 7, 2023, and its official suspension of trade with Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a number of American and Israeli television networks that history “teaches that when one regional power declines, another rises. Our task is to make sure Israel continues rising faster than anyone else.”

This explains why Netanyahu launched a public campaign against Trump’s apparent willingness to sell the fighter jets to Turkey, which is the very state now furiously jockeying to replace Iran as the Middle East’s dominant power. Selling F-35s to Ankara reflects a growing conviction in Israel that Turkey is shaping up to be Israel’s principal long-term challenge.

Turkey, Netanyahu contends, “has aggressive aspirations” and “is not a force for peace and security.” F-35 planes in its hands would “destroy the power balance” in the region

Erdogan dismissed objections by Greece and Israel to a potential F-35 sale, saying there was “no place” for such opposition. “Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis should not have made the mistake of opposing Turkey’s purchase of the aircraft,” he replied. “We have the right to acquire aircraft and defensive equipment, and we are holding talks on this matter.”

Turkey has the second largest army in NATO and a burgeoning defence industrial base. Turkish defence and aviation exports broke records last year, exceeding $10 billion. All of this has won admiration from Trump.

“I haven’t totally made up my mind, but my inclination is to say, look, he’s done everything, he’s helped us in so many different ways,” Trump said of Erdogan during a news conference at the NATO summit. Trump repeatedly praised Erdogan, calling him “really a great man” and “a great leader.” Greece and Israel won’t be able to prevent the deal.