By Henry Srebrnik, Saint John Telegraph-Journal
Canada, a decade after horrible mismanagement under the Trudeau Liberals, is in greater danger of internal dissolution than ever before, and U.S. President Donald Trump isn’t making things any better, either.
This fall, Alberta will be holding a “pre-referendum” on independence, and in Quebec, a forthcoming election again raises the possibility of a separatist Parti Québécois government in that province. These are no idle threats. Alberta’s grievances have simmered for decades. As for Quebec, it is already virtually a de facto nation.
So there’s no sense avoiding such hard questions. In the past century, we have seen states like Czechoslovakia, East Germany, the Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia disappear, creating almost 25 new countries. Somalia and Sudan have lost territories. East Timor wrested independence from Indonesia in 2002. Many other countries in the Global South deal with separatist movements and hang on for dear life. In Europe, Belgium has been virtually hollowed out as a unified state. Even the United Kingdom has robust sovereigntist movements in Scotland and Wales.
Canada is a large country of very disparate regions. It basically exists because it was the part of British North America that failed to join the United States, and managed to contain, for better or worse, French Canadian national desires within Quebec.
Look at a cartogram of the country. That’s a map where the shape of geographic areas are increased or decreased in proportion to their population. We see the area from Quebec City through to Windsor as a giant “island.” This narrow, densely populated strip accounts for roughly half of Canada’s entire population of about 41 million.
Pockets of population are scattered throughout the Maritimes, in the prairies, and British Columbia. The far north virtually disappears. In effect, Canada becomes an archipelago. The “empty” space between the populated areas of Ontario and Winnipeg effectively splits the country at that point.
Should Canada disintegrate, Quebec will obviously become independent. Everything in the province is called “national,” including the legislature. It refers to itself as “L’état du Québec.” On November 27, 2006, the House of Commons passed a motion officially recognizing that “the Québécois form a nation within a united Canada.” No need to elaborate.
But what about the other provinces and territories? Out west, Alberta and Saskatchewan (as one unit), and British Columbia, could stand on their own as two sovereign entities. Those two prairie provinces could be combined into a country called “Buffalo,” which was a widely discussed proposal for a massive new western province in the early 20th century, combining the southern halves of present-day Alberta and Saskatchewan. British Columbia could incorporate Yukon, and Buffalo include the Northwest Territories.
As for the rest of the country, should Canada collapse, the other provinces will have to make their own decisions for their futures. Newfoundland has a distinctive sense of nationhood and would make a go of it, but it would need to keep Labrador from Quebec – which has historic claims to it – from seizing it. (It’s why it expanded its name to “Newfoundland and Labrador” in 2001. To name is to claim.) Might that yet involve a war?
The Maritimes could make compacts of free association with the United States, either individually or as a federated Maritime state, though New Brunswick might end up partitioned, with Quebec incorporating the Acadian areas, leaving a rump jurisdiction as a stand-alone or in union with Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. Nunavut could merge with an independent Greenland to create a northern Inuit nation.
What’s left? Ontario would, probably along with Manitoba, remain in the country called “Canada,” as one of at least five successor states, and perhaps more.
But let’s face it: already Alberta and British Columbia are already at loggerheads over pipelines, and so are Newfoundland and Quebec regarding hydroelectric dams in Labrador. Interprovincial trade remains mostly an idea. Perhaps the old idea among Quebec advocates of independence, “sovereignty-association,” which meant sovereignty for Quebec within an economic association or union with the rest of Canada, could be broadened to turn the entire country into a version of the European Union.
What of indigenous peoples? The First Nations are, maybe unwittingly, now being used by the Laurentian elites as a cat’s paw against Alberta. The same ideology can be targeted against any provincial “nationalism,” which to the woke crowd is considered “white supremacy,” even if it gains favour with “racialized” people. It’s a way of dampening genuine provincial democracy, at least outside Quebec; there, it won’t work, since the French Canadians in effect see themselves as sort of “indigenous,” at least against the rest of Canada.
The indigenous groups might gain some kind of “national-cultural autonomy” but would probably not attain any kind of separate territorial status within these new polities. They are too small in numbers for that. All these new entities, except perhaps the Ontario-Manitoba “Canada,” would become republics, starting from scratch, like the 1776 Thirteen Colonies in the U.S. They would not be successor states and would inherit no ties or treaties going back to the “Crown,” so all former treaty rights with indigenous entities would probably cease.
None of this is very pleasant to think about, but refusing to face such dire possibilities does no good and leaves people more unprepared for what may come.