By Henry Srebrnik, Saint John Telegraph-Journal
While Canadian-American trade negotiations are at an impasse, U.S.-Mexican talks continue and seem to be moving towards a deal.
The divide-and-conquer tactic is not new for U.S. President Donald Trump. In Trump’s first term, when U.S. officials were negotiating the CUSMA free trade deal, they also pushed ahead with negotiations with Mexico, while threatening to jettison Canada.
In an interview with The New York Times this past January, Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, maintained that there was no “natural reason” that CUSMA needed to be one pact. “We’re not wedded to any particular agreement or format of an agreement simply because it’s there,” he explained.
U.S. officials began meeting with the Mexican government about a separate trade deal in January, and Mexicans say they are optimistic, even though Washington has criticized Mexico for welcoming investment from Chinese factories, which can then export their products to the United States under the preferential terms of the trade deal. Trump also wants to broaden liberalization of Mexico’s energy sector, and to advance a range of other manufacturing, labour, and farming-related goals.
In 2025, Mexico became the top trading partner of the United States, above China and outpacing Canada, for the first time in 30 years. Mexico to overtake Canada as the main buyer of American goods: U.S.-Mexico trade reached a record $94.8 billion in July with Canada second at $62.8 billion.
More than 80 per cent of Mexico’s exports -- cars, appliances, fresh produce -- now go to the United States. Each day, approximately one million individuals and 40,000 trucks cross the border. In 2024, roughly $800 billion of goods were transported across the border, and over one billion dollars in commerce between the two countries occurs daily. Mexico is the top source of both automobiles and automobile parts imported into the United States.
Of course, non-economic friction between the two countries revolves around illegal migration and drugs, especially fentanyl, coming into the U.S. This leaves Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in a bind. She must appease President Trump enough to avoid threatened air strikes while firmly standing up for Mexican sovereignty and maintaining her own domestic political support. She has kept trade flowing and tariffs manageable while defusing calls for military strikes from MAGA elements who view the country as more of an enemy than an ally.
“We have a president on the Mexican side who is more interested, much more interested, in cooperating than her predecessor was,” Roberta Jacobson, the former U.S. ambassador to Mexico, told Atlantic magazine journalist Nick Miroff, who covers immigration and the U.S.-Mexico border, referring to former President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador. “I think she has done an amazing job navigating that minefield.”
Mexico’s security cooperation with the United States had fallen to a low point under Lopez Obrador, who lashed out at the Drug Enforcement Administration after U.S. agents arrested a former Mexican defence minister at Los Angeles International Airport and accused him of working with traffickers. Lopez Obrador ordered Mexico’s military to shun the agency.
Sheinbaum has drawn a red line at U.S. strikes on Mexican soil and insisted that they would not happen. Her government has set other firm limits on what it considers to be nonnegotiable matters, rejecting the possibility of joint operations that would allow armed U.S. forces to embed with Mexican troops.
Mexico’s national identity is deeply entwined with the legacy of U.S. conquest and imperial bullying. So this remains out of the question for members of Sheinbaum’s leftist Morena party, the Movement for National Regeneration, which has held the reins of governance in Mexico since 2018.
As Sheinbaum herself has noted, the first American intervention cost the country half its territory. The Mexican-American war of 1846-1848 resulted in the acquisition of more than 1.3 million square kilometres of Mexican territory by the U.S., including all of Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah, and parts of Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming. Texas had already been acquired.
For Morena, therefore, the sovereignty of the nation comes first, even before its own capacity to police itself, and before the safety and lives of its citizens. But the prime beneficiaries of this approach have been the drug cartels, which control somewhere between a third and a half of Mexico, according to U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau.
Now, however, Mexico’s drug smugglers are under pressure. There has been a slowdown in drug trafficking at sea since the U.S. began striking smuggling vessels in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific. The cartels are already contending with the loss of revenue from human smuggling and extortion payments because of Trump’s border crackdown.
On April 19, a vehicle carrying four officers engaged in an anti-drug operation in the northern state of Chihuahua crashed, and all four were killed. Two were CIA officers. Americans had died in an operation on Mexican soil, apparently in cooperation not with the Mexican federal government, but the government of the state of Chihuahua, which is controlled not by Morena but by the rival PAN, the National Action Party. This was hugely embarrassing to Sheinbaum.
However, on Sept. 14 she authorized the entry into Mexico of 139 U.S. Army troops to participate in joint training exercises with Mexican military personnel in Chihuahua. After all, a major trade deal still hangs in the balance.