Professor Henry Srebrnik

Professor Henry Srebrnik

Thursday, October 29, 2026

Suspicious Election Result in Brazil Means Trouble Ahead

 By Henry Srebrnik, Saint John Telegraph-Journal

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been re-elected president of Brazil in a result marred by controversy. He won an unprecedented fourth term after a dramatic comeback from a first-round defeat.

The Oct. 25 runoff saw Lula capture 51.8 per cent of the total vote over opponent Flavio Bolsonaro’s 49.2. It capped an evening of chaos at polling places following a last-minute decision to extend voting by two hours. Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ruled three minutes before the scheduled end of voting to keep polls open for two more hours.

Bolsonaro, whose father Jair is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup after he lost the 2022 presidential election to Lula, pointed out that Justice Cristiano Zanin is Lula’s former lawyer and criticized him for “changing the rules of the game in the middle of the game.”

Flavio Bolsonaro bested Lula in the first round of the election Oct. 4, coming in at 47 per cent to 45 per cent for the president. Almost all polling had continued to show Bolsonaro in the lead in the three weeks between the balloting. 

But with just 2.2 million votes separating the candidates in the first round, it turned out even a small change in turnout tipped the balance. This result marked the first time since Brazil’s military dictatorship ended in 1985 that the second-highest vote-getter in the first-round elections won the presidency.

Brazil over the past decade has been dominated by two political forces: Lula, who governed from 2003 to 2016 and again since 2023, on the left; and Jair Bolsonaro, who governed from 2019 to 2023. The imprisonment and electoral exclusion of Jair Bolsonaro attempt have not dissolved his movement

Both men had been hit by corruption suspicions involving family members and allies, so this is not the first time Lula faced an uphill climb. He had in the past been serving a 12-year sentence over a corruption scandal that appeared to have ended his political career. But his convictions were annulled by the Supreme Court in 2021 amid evidence that the judge, prosecutors and the police had colluded to put him behind bars. This freed him to run against the elder Bolsonaro in 2022, a race he won in a huge political comeback.

Jair Bolsonaro’s admission that he accepted about US$12 million from disgraced former banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film on his father’s life cast a shadow over his campaign. He is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion in connection with the case. Last week the Brazilian magazine Piaui claimed that at the height of Brazil’s 2020 coronavirus outbreak, Bolsonaro attended a boat party attended by sex workers and vaccine lobbyists hoping to strike a deal with the government of his father.

The background to the election is a nationwide corruption case -- the so-called Banco Master scandal, which has tarnished many senior figures, including some in Lula’s entourage. This includes his own son, as well as a key political ally: the country’s most powerful judge, Alexandre de Moraes of the Federal Supreme Court, hero of the Brazilian left and the man responsible for taking down Jair Bolsonaro. Recently, the juror’s ties to the bank’s head, Daniel Vorcaro, now under arrest, have come to light. Investigators believe that Vorcaro acted on different occasions based on advice from de Moraes.

The Banco Master scandal is apparently the largest bank fraud in Brazil’s history. Five years ago, Vorcaro bought a nearly bankrupt bank and renamed it Banco Master. The institution grew exponentially, based on a highly risky strategy, selling fixed-term deposits with interest rates far exceeding those offered by the competition, and without verifying whether it would have the liquidity to pay investors.

The operation functioned, in practice, as a pyramid scheme, in which applications from new customers covered the deficit of previous customers. The bank evidently went as far as to also launder money from the Primeiro Comando da Capital, the largest drug gang in the Western Hemisphere and Brazil’s most powerful crime syndicate. The bank also overvalued the property and assets it offered as collateral.

The fraud was uncovered in late 2025 with the launch of Operation Compliance Zero by the Federal Police and the liquidation of the financial institution by the Central Bank. Vorcaro was arrested last November. The Central Bank is expected to set aside over US$970 million to cover transactions with the failed lender, and the bank’s missing funds may reach US$2.2 billion. A minimum of 1.6 million people may have been affected and lost money.

This has been huge, but not unprecedented. Corruption has been endemic on both sides. Lula’s handpicked successor, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached and removed from office in 2016, also for corruption.

Lula emerged on the political stage in the 1970s, making his name as a union leader on the outskirts of São Paulo. As president between 2003 and 2010, Lula, a former metalworker with a fifth-grade education, created generous social programs that helped some 20 million Brazilians climb out of poverty.

The fiercely contested presidential race has come to a chaotic conclusion, and Lula will face a hostile Congress, where Bolsonaro’s allies are in the majority, and a polarized country. Brazil’s politics, always volatile, may get even worse. Stay tuned.

 

Thursday, October 22, 2026

Will the Fifth Republic Survive PAID?

 By Henry Srebrnik, Fredericton Daily Gleaner

Will the French Fifth Republic, now almost 70 years old, survive PAID (political assistance in dying)? The political “doctors” administering the coup de grâce might be Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, from opposite political ends of the spectrum.

Founded in 1958, upon the death of the short-lived Fourth Republic, the Fifth Republic was designed by war hero Charles de Gaulle to create a strong semi-presidential system. The Fourth Republic formed in 1946 was a multi-party parliamentary system with politically unstable coalitions that frequently collapsed. The result: 16 individuals formed a total of more than 20 administrations, in just 12 years. The executive was a revolving door.

De Gaulle had chaired the postwar provisional government from 1944 to 1946 to restore democracy in France but hated the Fourth Republic and left office. He came out of retirement in 1958 during the political crisis over the Algerian War and commissioned a new constitution.

It placed power in a directly elected president winning a nationwide majority vote, in a two-person runoff, if necessary. It established a seven-year term, reduced to five years following a 2000 constitutional referendum to align the presidency with parliament. A president is limited to a maximum of two consecutive terms. De Gaulle served as its first president, the first of eight, a position he held until his resignation in 1969.

The division of powers remained in force. National Assembly elections were separate, with premiers forming cabinets designed to do the president’s bidding. Other powerful men who became head of state included Georges Pompidou, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, François Mitterrand, and Jacques Chirac.

But the last three have been less stellar, with the current incumbent, Emmanuel Macron, an unpopular “lame duck.” As well, there have been six prime ministers over the last five years. Macron was elected president in 2017 with 66 per cent of the second-round vote. He defeated Marine Le Pen of the National Front, now the National Rally (Rassemblement National, or RN), who won 34 per cent. He beat her again in a second round in 2022, with 59 per cent to her 41, becoming the first French presidential candidate to win re-election since Chirac in 2002. Le Pen first ran in 2012, placing third with 18 per cent in the first round of voting.

As for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the head of France Unbowed (La France Insoumise, or LFI), he has also run for the presidency three times. In 2012 and 2017, he was knocked out in the first round, winning 11 and 20 per cent respectively.  In 2022, Mélenchon also came in third place with 22 per cent of the vote in the first round, behind Macron at 28 per cent and Le Pen at 23.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in France next spring. Will the fourth time be the charm for one of these two? It looks quite possible. An economically troubled, polarized and angry France may select one of these two so-called “far-right” and “far-left” candidates. The centre isn’t holding.

France’s underlying problem is a government caught between expensive social commitments, sluggish economic growth and mounting pressure to cut spending. It is nearing a debt crisis. The violent and massive student protests that began in September over crumbling schools are fueling more discontent, and experts warn that the country’s mounting financial troubles, President Macron’s weakened political centre, and radical movements are pushing the unrest far beyond its original educational grievances.

Between 250,000 and 500,000 people have taken to the streets. There have been rallies in roughly 110 places by Oct. 17, and large marches later took place that day in the country’s major cities, including Paris, Lyon, Nantes and Rennes. Nearly 8,000 people have been arrested, and about 900 police officers, as well as more than 350 students and staff members, have been injured. More than 100 high schools have been severely damaged, and several were burned down. In Marseille, firefighters responding to burning trash outside Saint-Exupéry high school were assaulted.

France’s prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, suggested that student anger was being manipulated. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin said outsiders had hijacked it; Interior Minister Laurent Nunez described troublemakers moving between schools to incite violence.

Le Pen seized on the violence to intensify her law-and-order message. She called the images “unbearable” and described the rioters as “a pack howling its hatred.” She has asked for a new anti-riot law, while RN president Jordan Bardella blamed the disturbances on “decades of laxity and mass immigration.”

Behind the chaos is a calculated strategy for Mélenchon. LFI lawmakers have appeared at school gates and called for blockades to spread. His allies include the Antifascist Young Guard (La Jeune Garde Antifasciste), accused of the murder of a far-right activist in Lyon last winter, and Hope Dignity Resistance (Espoir Dignité Résistance), a group that under the guise of fighting Islamophobia, engages in violent activism. It’s also hard to miss the prevalence of Algerian and Palestinian flags.

“We will establish the Sixth Republic!” Mélenchon shouted at a recent event. “A republic of popular power through citizen referendums!” No one retains respect for the outgoing president or for the rusted institutions of the Fifth Republic. What began with legitimate complaints is exploited by forces seeking confrontation with the state. The anger is real, but the violence is organized.

 

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

An Overview of Antisemitism in Western Europe

 Henry Srebrnik, Jewish Post, Winnipeg

The European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights survey of 2024 found that 96 per cent of Jewish respondents had encountered antisemitism online or offline in the 12 months before the survey, and that 76 per cent avoided wearing or displaying items that would make them recognizable as Jewish in public.

Antisemitism in Austria remained at alarmingly high levels last year, reaching its highest point since records began. The Antisemitism Reporting Center of the Israelitische Kultusgemeinde Wien (IKG), the official body tracking antisemitic incidents against Austria’s Jewish community, released its annual report in April documenting 1,532 cases in 2025.

Last November, protesters rallied in Vienna against an event dedicated to Franz Dinghofer, an Austrian politician who was a self-confessed antisemite and a Nazi party member. They were protesting an event called the Dinghofer Symposium that they say is antisemitic. The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) members countered that they remember Dinghofer as a statesman in the period between World War I and World War II.

In Belgium, Jewish communities are described as tight-knit but insecure, and constantly aware that their citizenship and prosperity don’t guarantee their acceptance or safety. Too often, writes Brandeis University historian Flora Cassen, who grew up in the country, “governments and the media treat attacks on their Jewish communities as a front in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, not as an attack on their own citizens.” In March, there was a car burning in the Jewish quarter of Antwerp. As well, a synagogue in Liège was damaged by an explosion in what the country’s interior minister called “an antisemitic act.”

In France, antisemitic violence has intensified while the experience of protection has weakened. Jewish students face harassment framed and justified as political expression. Synagogues operate behind security. Wearing a kippah can require calculation. These are no longer marginal experiences; they have become familiar features of Jewish life in places that once felt self-evidently safe. Since 2000, between 80,000 and 100,000 Jews have fled France -- more than 20 per cent of the community.

More troubling still is the ideological shift. Antisemitism is increasingly reframed as political critique, social protest, or resistance to power. Jews are often excluded from the moral category of vulnerable minorities. The very frameworks designed to protect them can struggle to recognise them as victims.

A staggering number of antisemitic incidents has now become normal in France -- 1,320 in 2025 is nearly double the already extreme 851 in 2014. But what’s more interesting is the shift in social permission to openly hate Jews.

The far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) Party in France has been accused by academics and ministers of antisemitism after their de facto leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, refused to call Hamas a terrorist organization and party members marched with Islamist-linked NGOs during Gaza protests. The LFI’s popularity has been on the rise in polling ahead of next year’s presidential election, according to the French newspaper Le Monde. Ninety-two per cent of French Jews believe that the LFI contributes to antisemitism in France.

Mélenchon took advantage of nationwide student protests in early October. To advance his political prospects, his strategy appears to be to capitalize on the discontent currently roiling the country. Mélenchon has also accused authorities of repression with a racist undertone, since many of the protesters are Muslim. No surprise, then, that Palestinian flags have appeared at the protests.

Although Mélenchon was known in the 1990s as a hardcore secularist, by 2020 he had allied himself with Houria Bouteldja, co-founder of the “decolonial” (anti-West) Parti des Indigènes de la République (PIR). Under Bouteldja’s influence, Mélenchon began to utter questionable remarks on the Jews. The way Mélenchon uses the idea of uniting against one enemy by speaking of Israel “is similar to the way Hitler used to speak about the Jews,” according to Israeli Ambassador to France Joshua Zarka. So it’s no surprise that French president Emmanuel Macron, getting more and more unpopular, recognized a Palestinian state in 2025.

Germany has cracked down on speech and demonstrations that assert support for Palestinians and accuse Israel of atrocities, part of a national policy toward antisemitism, defined over decades in the shadow of the Holocaust and sharpened recently under the helm of Felix Klein, the first federal commissioner for combating antisemitism. Many Jews say they feel safer under such bans. The Central Council of Jews in Germany recommended Klein for his appointment as antisemitism czar. Some human rights groups have objected, however, saying the bans limit free speech and criminalize legitimate expressions of support for the Palestinian cause.

Disputes over Israel recently erupted at the Buchenwald concentration camp memorial, as both Israel’s critics and its defenders claim the Holocaust for their terrain. The anti-Zionist group Kufiyas in Buchenwald announced a demonstration there on April 11, the anniversary of its liberation, in protest against a German court’s decision that the site could refuse entry to visitors who wear a Palestinian keffiyeh. The court said that wearing a keffiyeh to send a political message “would endanger the sense of security of many Jews, especially at this site.” The Buchenwald protest was condemned by the European Jewish Congress, and Klein said it marked a “new low point in the unfortunately all-too-common reversal of perpetrator and victim roles.”

In an election held Sept. 20 in Berlin, the left-wing Die Linke came in first, winning 25.7 per cent, more than doubling its 2023 share. Israel’s ambassador, Ron Prosor, described antisemitism within Die Linke as systemic. Philipp Peyman Engel, editor in chief of the Jüdische Allgemeine, the newspaper of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, wrote that party was “riddled with people who hate Jews and Israel.”

Italy in April announced that it was declining to renew a longstanding defence agreement with Israel, a sharp reversal for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government. Opposition parties had put pressure on the government for over a year to suspend the renewal. Marco Grimaldi, an opposition lawmaker, said the decision was “a victory” for those who had protested Israel’s military offensive in Gaza over the last three years.

On Oct. 3, 2025, there was a nationwide general strike, which the labour union leaders officially called “to support the residents of Gaza and a humanitarian aid mission.” While mass anti-Israel rallies gripped other parts of Europe, Italy’s were the most numerous.

Recent Italian demonstrations of “solidarity” with Palestine saw protesters carry Palestinian flags, flags of Italian labour unions, and red flags with hammers and sickles. Some of the banners had the words, in Italian, “yesterday partisans, today anti-Zionists and anti-Fascists,” and declared support for “Palestinian resistance.”

Dutch Jews have long been used to seeing security and armed police in front of their schools, synagogues and gatherings. Since a school and a synagogue were attacked over two days in March, an unsettling feeling has spread among Jews in the Netherlands. Assailants struck Jewish buildings -- a religious school in Amsterdam, where most Dutch Jews live, and a synagogue in Rotterdam. Mayor Femke Halsema of Amsterdam called the blast at the school a “targeted attack against the Jewish community.”

Before the Holocaust, the Netherlands had a robust Jewish population. The Nazis deported 75 per cent of Dutch Jews to death camps, the highest such rate in Nazi-occupied western European nations. Today, the Jewish population of the Netherlands is estimated at about 35,000 people, just 0.2 per cent of the country’s 18 million residents.

“I am mostly angry,” declared Menno ten Brink, a rabbi at the Liberal Jewish Community in Amsterdam. The explosions have had a big impact on Dutch Jews and the wider society, added Eddo Verdoner, the Dutch national coordinator for combating antisemitism. Antisemitism has been increasing over the last decade or so, he said, with an “exponential increase” since October 2023.

Relations between Israel and Norway have plummeted to historic lows, with Oslo becoming one of the Palestinians’ staunchest supporters in Europe. Norway became the first European country to announce that it would arrest Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant following the International Criminal Court’s issuance of warrants against them, and it then joined South Africa in its International Court of Justice case against Israel.

“I find it shameful that we have one of the most anti-Israel governments in Europe,” MP Himanshu Gulati, chairman of the Israel Allies Caucus in the Norwegian Parliament, has remarked. Not surprisingly, the Norwegian government has recognized. a Palestinian state.

In May, Norway’s higher education minister indicated that she did not intend to punish a university professor who praised Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacres in Israel because he had “the same freedom of expression as everyone else.” Sigrun Aasland was referring to Bassam Hussein, a professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), who on April 21, during a lecture before the Socialist Forum in Trondheim, said that the Oct. 7 massacres were “the most beautiful thing that has happened in our century.”

Norway’s Foreign Ministry put out a bill this fall before its parliament that would send Norwegian citizens and companies to prison for buying from, selling to, building for or investing in businesses owned by Jews who live in the West Bank. Negligent violators get six months.

In Portugal anti-Israel sentiment punctuates the actions of the political press. The most significant antisemitic events that occurred in recent years included demonstrations for better housing that targeted local Jews whose personal names were published in newspapers, bomb threats against the country’s largest synagogue and the Holocaust museum, which was called a “brothel that teaches the lie of the 6 million,” and hate messages written on the facades of Jewish homes to identify “Zionist pigs.”

Following October 7, 2023, antisemitic and antizionist incidents surfaced more visibly in public spaces and academic institutions. High-profile incidents include verbal electoral harassment against Jewish community figures like writer Esther Mucznik, acts of vandalism directed at the Lisbon Synagogue, and hostile propaganda targeting Jewish and Israeli students at the University of Coimbra

The far-left Sumar Party in Spain is part of socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s ruling coalition. Their support has been strongest in areas with high Muslim populations, with party members attending demonstrations with Muslim Brotherhood-adjacent groups and Gaza protests organized by Islamist-leaning networks. Members also pushed for Spain to recognize a Palestinian state, which it did in 2024, while also referring to Israel as an “apartheid state.”

The political left spread a narrative across social media asserting that the recent migrant invasion by Moroccans of Spain’s Ceuta enclave is part of a vast American-Israeli conspiracy to destroy the country. Spain’s Transportation Minister supported the theory on social media while Gabriel Rufian, a spokesperson from the Spanish Congress, asserted that the U.S. and Israel were flooding Europe with migrants to “blackmail” the country.

In Sweden, debates about antisemitism loomed large throughout the recent election season, despite the country’s small population of Jews, who number about 20,000 in a country of more than 10 million people. Politicians on all sides repeatedly sought to position themselves as the best defenders against antisemitism.

Aron Verständig, who chairs the Official Council of Swedish Jewish Communities, said that while he appreciated gestures of solidarity with the Jewish community, he worried that politicians hurling accusations of antisemitism against each other could reduce Jews to a weapon of political debate. “Of course, it’s good that our situation is discussed and people are interested in what happens to the Jews here in Sweden -- but on the other hand, there’s a risk that we are becoming a tool.”

Simona Mohamsson, Sweden’s minister for education and integration, who is of Palestinian and Lebanese descent, wore a Star of David during a televised debate. A member of the center-right Liberals, she wore the symbol “for the children who do not dare to in today’s Sweden.” She criticized members of the Left Party for “flirting with extremists.” 

Since 2023, the war in the Middle East has been a defining trigger for antisemitic incidents in Switzerland. For the Jewish community, this has been a constant strain for more than three years.

Pro-Palestine activists are very active at Swiss universities. There have been anti-Israel demonstrations, some of which were associated with calls for violence and antisemitic slogans. The one in Bern in October 2025 stands out in particular because there was a massive outbreak of violence. In the larger cities of Switzerland, offensive graffiti relating to the conflict in the Middle East is omnipresent.

Here and there we see small improvements on the continent, but not enough to turn things around. The ancestral Jewish knowledge that safety can collapse with terrifying speed, even in civilised societies, begins to return.