Election in Kenya Divisive, Controversial

 Henry Srebrnik, [Halifax] Chronicle Herald

In Kenya’s Aug. 9 presidential election, two high-profile candidates, Deputy President William Ruto and veteran politician Raila Odinga, were in the running to replace outgoing president Uhuru Kenyatta, who has led the country since 2013. Kenyatta was not eligible to run for re-election, having served the maximum of two five-year terms.

To avoid a run-off, a presidential candidate needed more than 50 per cent of the total votes, including at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in half of Kenya’s 47 counties. Failure to meet that bar meant a runoff within 30 days.

Ruto was declared the winner by a razor-thin margin, coming in at 50.49 per cent, and making a runoff unnecessary – or so the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission announced.

But just before the declaration, four of the seven electoral commissioners told journalists they could not support the “opaque nature” of the final phase of the vote verification process.

Nine major opinion polls since May had shown Odinga in the lead.

Amid widespread voter apathy, turnout, at 65 per cent, was way down from the previous election held in 2017.

Odinga immediately rejected as “null and void” the result, adding that Kenya’s democracy faced a long legal crisis. “What we saw yesterday was a travesty and blatant disregard of the constitution,” he said the day after.

In the western city of Kisumu and Nairobi’s huge Kibera district, both strongholds of his, protesters began battling police and burning tires.

Elections to the two houses of parliament were also virtual dead heats between the two coalitions, with Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Alliance winning 24 seats to 23 for Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition in the Senate (21 others are appointed), while Odinga’s group beat Ruto’s supporters 162 to 159 in the National Assembly. This clearly foreshadows trouble ahead.

Voters had expressed mounting public anger over soaring living costs, rampant unemployment, endemic corruption, runaway state debt that has soared to more than two-thirds of GDP, and a drought that’s left millions of people going hungry.

Economic inequality has reached unprecedented levels. Less than 0.1 per cent of the population (8,300 people) own more wealth than the bottom 99.9 per cent (more than 44 million people). The richest 10 per cent of people in Kenya earn on average 23 times more than the poorest 10 per cent.

Despite all these pressing issues, Kenyans usually vote along ethnic lines – often leading to major violence. Past elections gave way to periods of tense uncertainty involving accusations of vote-rigging, protracted courtroom dramas, and street violence.

In post-election fighting following the disputed 2007 contest between Kenyatta, a Kikuyu, the country’s largest ethnic group, and Odinga, a Luo, its next biggest, 1,200 people died and more than 500,000 fled their homes. In 2017, huge logistical errors led the Supreme Court to annul the result and order the presidential poll to be re-run.

Yet this time something unprecedented occurred. Kenyatta endorsed his old opponent Odinga, whom he had beaten in two previous elections. Why?

 In March, the country’s Supreme Court rejected Kenyatta’s proposal to expand the executive branch with several new posts, including prime minister. That position had been abolished in the 2010 constitution.

Its detractors, including Ruto, called the changes little more than a power grab on Kenyatta’s part. They accused him of colluding with Odinga, who would appoint him prime minister should Odinga emerge victorious in the forthcoming poll.

Ruto, a Kalenjin, had built a power base among the Kikuyu, despite not being from the community himself, and many Kikuyu thought Kenyatta had betrayed Ruto. The Luo, on the other hand, felt the time had come for their community to produce its first president.

Disinformation had begun spreading on social-media platforms by camps allied to Odinga and Ruto as the counting took place, and Kenyan media began publishing differing tallies, sparking confusion among people anxious for a result.

As a statement attributed to Joseph Stalin has it, “It’s not who votes that counts, it’s who counts the votes.”

 

Are Russia, Iran Forging a Strategic Alliance?

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, N.B.] Telegraph-Journal

Russian President Vladimir Putin travelled to Tehran on July 19 for talks with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and President Ebrahim Raisi. Also present was Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  It was Putin’s first trip outside Russia since the start of the Ukraine war.

Are we seeing an emerging coalition, backed by China, aiming to reshape the world? Senior Russian and Iranian officials have met frequently in recent months to boost cooperation and sign economic and military agreements. The deepening bond between Russia and Iran provides Putin with the confidence to believe that he can avoid the worst effects of western sanctions.

Russia and Iran have often been at odds with each other, and there are important differences between them now. But since the onset of the war in Ukraine, the Russian-Iranian relationship has grown closer than it has ever been before.

Russia sees Iran as a potential source of technology it can no longer easily import due to sanctions; Iran brings trade routes, knowledge of how to circumvent sanctions, and oil export experience.

Tehran and Moscow have negotiated a 20-year economic and military cooperation agreement. Russia’s energy industry is ready to invest in Iran’s natural gas sector, which has suffered due to international sanctions and the withdrawal of Western energy giants from Iran. They are working to increase bilateral commerce and trade, and are doing so without the use of the U.S. dollar.

The two countries are establishing mutual trade centre. One will be located in the Tehran, and the other in Russia’s Baltic port city St. Petersburg. They will facilitate trade between the two countries in the energy, transportation, electronics, agriculture, food, pharmaceuticals and construction sectors.

They are also working toward accelerating the International North-South Transport Corridor, which is a trade route with India that involves a system of roads, shipping lines and railways. Russia and Iran see it as an alternative to the Suez Canal. 

Iran considers itself to be locked in the same existential struggle for survival against the West as the Russians and is willing to put aside previous religious and geopolitical animosity. The Islamic Republic styles itself as a defender of the oppressed against western imperialism and therefore supports Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Khamenei has stated that the West wants to prevent an “independent and strong” Russia, by using Ukraine as its pawn. “If you had not taken the initiative, the other side would have caused the war with its own initiative,” he told Putin at their meeting. “If the road is open to NATO, it knows no boundaries, and if it was not stopped in Ukraine, it would start the same war some time later under the pretext of Crimea.”

Also, from Iran’s point of view, if Russia were weakened as a result of defeat in Ukraine, it would no longer be able to remain as strongly involved in Syria as it has been. Iranian and Hezbollah forces would have a much more difficult time dealing with the internal opponents to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Iranian-Russian military cooperation is growing. Iran has now provided some its most sophisticated military drones, such as the Shahed-129 and Shahed-191, to Russia. A senior Ukrainian official claimed on Aug. 5 that the Kremlin had received 46 drones thus far, and that Russian personnel are currently in Iran training to use them.

Tehran maintains a rapidly advancing missile program and could help Russian forces replenish their dwindling missile stockpiles with Iranian variants. Iran will start to supply aircraft parts and equipment to Russia and service Russian aircraft in a new agreement signed between the two countries.

It includes a pledge to increase flights between the two nations for up to 35 flights per week – a significant boost when only about 19 countries provide direct flight access to Russia.

There has been a dramatic increase in the number of cargo flights between Iran and Russia seen since April. At least 42 flights of airlines known to be operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have landed in Moscow, compared to only three in the whole of 2021.

In return, Putin is providing Iran sophisticated military platforms in exchange for the drones. A Soyuz rocket carrying a “Khayyam” Russian-built Kanopus-V earth-observation satellite into orbit lifted off on Aug. 9.

“The successful launch of the satellite in the interests and on the order of Iran has become an important milestone in Russian-Iranian bilateral cooperation,” said Yury Borisov, the director general of Roscosmos, the Russian space agency.

“Today is a turning point for the start of a new interaction in the field of space between our two countries,” concurred Isa Zarepour, the Iranian minister for communications and information technology.

The spy satellite allows Tehran to collect high resolution satellite imagery to support its external military operations in the Middle East. Responding to the launch, Washington warned that Russia’s growing cooperation with Iran should be viewed as a “profound threat.” But Iran plans to commission three more versions of the satellite.

The Kremlin may also be considering providing Iran with fourth-generation fighter jets, such as the Su-35, allowing the Iranian armed forces to operate a modern air force.

Clearly, we are seeing the solidifying of an anti-Western political and military axis to drive the U.S. and its allies out of Eurasia.