By Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian
While most attention in the forthcoming American election is on the presidency, 34 of 100 Congressional Senate seats are also being contested.
Currently, Democrats hold a slim majority in the chamber, controlling 51 seats, thanks to three independents who caucus with them. These include seven of the eight most competitive seats. Republicans hold 49 seats.
There are a handful of states where Democrats represent places where Republicans have consistently won statewide elections, including Montana and Ohio, two states where the GOP is optimistic it will be able to flip control.
What is the state of political play in some of these important races? The results may have a bearing on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump carries these states.
In Arizona, Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s retirement set up a contest between Representative Ruben Gallego, a progressive, and Kari Lake, a Trump favorite. Lake lost her race for governor in 2022 and then claimed that her Democratic opponent stole the election.
Gallego is less well known outside his Phoenix House of Representatives district, but as a Latino with a Harvard degree and combat experience in Iraq with the Marine Corps, he has the upper hand. He is trouncing Lake in fundraising, giving him more local airtime, and will doubtless prevail.
Maryland, which is reliably Democratic, should not be close. But this race is one to watch because Larry Hogan, the moderate former Republican governor, has decided to run for the Senate seat of Ben Cardin, a Democrat who is retiring. Democrats nominated Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County Executive.
Hogan aims to convince some of the state’s Democratic voters to split their ticket and choose him as well as voting for Harris. He has distanced himself from Trump and pledges to protect abortion rights if he’s elected. If Alsobrooks wins, which seems likely, she would be the first Black senator from Maryland.
The Senate race in the swing state of Michigan sees former Congressman Mike Rogers, a mainstream Republican and former critic of Trump who later embraced him, face off against Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat who has used her national security credentials to win over swing voters since 2018.
She is also banking on securing strong support from more liberal constituents in and around Detroit. The result in this seat, being vacated by Democrat Debbie Stabenow, who opted to retire, will be a nail-biter.
In Montana, Senator Jon Tester has defied the odds before, but his victories in 2006, 2012 and 2018 all came in strong Democratic cycles. His fight for a fourth term will be considerably tougher, and he will need many ticket-splitters in a state that Trump won by 16 points in 2020. The Republican candidate, Tim Sheehy, is a decorated former Navy SEAL with the wealth to self-finance his campaign; he also has Trump’s backing. This seat may well flip.
The race in Ohio features vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown against Republican Bernie Moreno, a businessman who got his start in auto dealerships and then turned to cryptocurrency. A Democrat in a solidly Republican state, Brown has established an image as a stalwart supporter of working-class voters.
Moreno was not the Ohio Republican establishment’s choice. Instead, he was Trump’s pick. A wealthy Colombian-born businessman, his sizable fortune has helped him match Brown, who has a tenuous lead, in spending.
The race in another swing state, Pennsylvania, is between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey and Republican challenger David McCormick, a businessman and Army veteran. It will be very hard to beat Casey but McCormick, the former chief executive of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, is still competitive. Should McCormick win, it would also mean that Trump has carried the state and has probably won the election.
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Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin has been courting African American voters with a pitch focused especially on what her party can do for economic opportunity. Her opponent, Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde, who is running to “restore the American dream,” has emphasized economic, immigration, and culture war issues. Hovde holds a narrow lead. |
Other states to watch are Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, and Texas, where long-shots may take out their statistically favoured opponents.
