A Clash of Civilizations in Central Asia

By Henry Srebrnik, [Summerside, PEI] Journal Pioneer

 

Samuel Huntington’s seminal work, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, published more than two decades ago, posits that in the twenty-first century, most major conflicts will pit cultural regions against each other.

One such potential area of contention would be at the boundary between the Islamic world and that of the east Asian Confucian-based civilizations.

Were that to become the case, a small-scale version of this is already playing out in the Muslim regions of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Xinjiang -- officially the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region -- in the far west of the country has already become an arena of conflict.

Despite its name, it is in fact historically part of Muslim Central Asia, the large region once called Turkestan. 

Most of that area, the home of major Islamic civilizations, was conquered by the Russian tsars in the 19^th century and later became five separate republics in the Soviet Union. They became independent countries in 1991.

Only Xinjiang, once known as East Turkestan, and historically inhabited mainly by Uighurs, remains under the domination of a non-Muslim state.

The Uighurs, along with Turkic tribes like the Kazakhs (including some who also live in Xinjiang), converted to Islam beginning around the year 1000.

Xinjiang is part of the PRC today because the Manchu-ruled Qing empire conquered it in the eighteenth century, in the course of a westward expansion. The local populations, however, were largely allowed to retain their own cultures.

This benign neglect continued into the 20^th century. But with the emergence of the Communist-ruled Chinese state in 1949, as Beijing sought to maintain control over Xinjiang, a debate emerged pitting the old imperial ethno-pluralism against Han Chinese nationalistic assimilationism.

At first Beijing followed the Soviet model of ethno-federalism, granting non-Han peoples official status as nationality or ethnic groups, with special rights enshrined in the Chinese constitution.

Han civilization was, in theory, not considered superior. The PRC celebrated China’s cultural diversity, encouraging publishing in non-Han languages, putting minorities on the currency, and so on.

But many Chinese political theorists blamed the disintegration of the USSR on Soviet nationality policies, so a reassessment of the ethno-pluralist system began. 

They argued that only after assimilating minorities into a broader pan-Chinese ethnicity would China be truly stable.

Not only would ethnic distinctiveness have to be eliminated, but the religion underpinning it would have to also be wiped out, because religious belief itself was contradictory to the unitary pan-Chinese identity.

In October 2017 the Xinjiang Communist Youth League used a medical metaphor to malign the Uighur belief in Islam.

“There is always a risk that the illness will manifest itself at any moment, which would cause serious harm to the public.” That is why, they insisted, the devout “must be admitted to a re-education hospital in time to treat and cleanse the virus from their brain.”

Hence the introduction of today’s “re-education” centres – in effect, gulags and prisons – and redefining independent Uighur groups as terrorist organizations.

Today there are tens of thousands of security personnel in the region. As well, a vast and expanding surveillance network of facial-recognition cameras, GPS vehicle tracking, and fingerprint, voice-print, and even walking-gait scans are linked to a database of personal information about the population.

Uighur religious and other cultural practices are increasingly circumscribed or legally banned. School instruction in the Uighur language has been eliminated.

Xinjiang authorities now define as “extremist” veils, head coverings, “abnormal beards,” long clothing, fasting at Ramadan, avoiding alcohol, religious education, mosque attendance, and avoidance of state radio or television.

Members of the Uighur cultural, academic, and business elite, including top administrators of universities and chief editors of presses, have been singled out for detention.

Over a million people are interned in the re-education camps, where detainees must sing anthems of the Chinese Communist Party, disavow Islam, watch propaganda films, and study Chinese language and history.

The state now increasingly finds Islamic faith and even non-Han ethnic culture to be inimical to the goal of homogeneous Chinese identity.

If Huntington is right, and the Muslim and east Asian world will eventually collide, this is a foretaste of what’s to come.

Is Sudan's Ruler on the Ropes?

By Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

As they used to say in Brooklyn, in a sarcastic tone of voice, “It couldn’t happen to a nicer guy!”

Omar al-Bashir, indicted as a war criminal by the International Criminal Court, has been the president of Sudan for three decades. 

A ruthless murderer who took power in an Islamist coup d’état, he was responsible for genocidal campaigns against fellow Muslims in the western region of Darfur and against African Christians in the south of the country.

In the early 2000s, he recruited ethnic Arab militias known as the Janjaweed to Darfur where they committed mass murder and rape.

The second war in the south ended in ignominious defeat, when South Sudan seceded and became a sovereign state in 2011.

His regime also for a time harbored terrorists, including Osama bin Laden, leading to economic sanctions. 

Though he managed to survive all of this, he’s now in trouble. His current problems stem from the government’s attempts to prevent economic collapse, exacerbated after the secession of South Sudan, which had three quarters of the country’s oil production.

Most of Sudan’s national budget goes to the military and security sector, as the country is dealing with insurgencies in the South Kordofan, Darfur, and Blue Nile regions. In 2018, only three per cent of the national budget was allocated to education and even less to health. 

The salaries and allowances of national and state government officials put more burden on the annual budget. The country is crippled by corruption; Sudan ranks 175 out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index.

Late last year Bashir instituted emergency austerity measures and a sharp currency devaluation.
Prices rose, because the government reduced subsidies on fuel and bread. This triggered mass protests in the capital, Khartoum, and other parts of the country.

They started in the eastern city of Atbara on Dec. 19 when the headquarters of the governing National Congress Party (NCP) was torched.

The demonstrations have morphed into demands calling for the end of Bashir’s rule. They denounce his corruption and disastrous economic management, which has focused on military spending rather than on necessities such as health and education.

The protests have also created a tenuous unity in the ethnically and regionally divided Sudanese society. Major General Salah Abdallah, the director of the Sudan Intelligence and Security Service, tried to use a divisive strategy to break the momentum of the protests by blaming non-Arab groups from Darfur for the unrest. But protesters in Khartoum responded by chanting, “The entire country is Darfur.” They have been numerous enough to fill stadiums and the square in front of Bashir’s palace.

Since the unrest began, Sudanese security forces have used live ammunition to break up demonstrations. Thousands have been swept up in mass arrests and at least 50 have been killed, according to human rights groups. 

A government assault on a hospital in the city of Omdurman drew international condemnation  The Sudan Doctors Syndicate called for the release of at least 12 physicians arrested during recent raids.  In speeches in front of his supporters, the president, who remains defiant, has described the protestors as saboteurs.

His government has tightened censorship of the country’s broadcast and print media, arresting journalists and confiscating newspapers with coverage of the protests. Access to social media websites has been blocked.

The Sudanese armed forces, who back the president, warned they would not allow a collapse of the state.

But on Feb. 2 more than 3,000 people protested his rule following the brutal death of an anti-government demonstrator.

While Sudanese, including a coalition of 22 opposition political parties, are calling for Bashir’s resignation, the ruling NCP has other plans. The current constitution bars Bashir from seeking re-election, but it has called for an amendment so that Bashir can run next year.

But can he even last until then?

Some Upcoming African Elections in 2019

By Henry Srebrnik, [Summerside, PEI] Journal Pioneer

Several African presidents who will be fighting to remain in power in elections in 2019. 

In South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, who inherited the political crown from the scandal-ridden Jacob Zuma, will lead the governing African National Congress (ANC) in its bid to extend its 25-year rule in May. 

The leading opposition parties will be the Democratic Alliance (DA) led by Mmusi Maimane; and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by Julius Malema.

The ANC, the party of Nelson Mandela, has been the governing party since the 1994 transition from apartheid to “non-racial” democracy.

It has been the party of the black majority, which comprises about 80 percent of the population.

The DA is center-right, and in South Africa’s racial calculus, has been the party of whites, coloreds, and, increasingly, Asians. It is aggressively seeking black electoral support, and its leader Maimane is black.

The EFF has radical economic and social policies; among other things, it calls for the expropriation of white-owned property without compensation.

At the last parliamentary elections in 2014, of the 400 seats in parliament, the ANC won 249; the DA won 89; the EFF won 25. Six other parties also altogether hold the remaining seats, a reflection of South Africa’s system of proportional representation.

Although few expect the ANC to lose, it may not be an easy fight as its reputation has been damaged by corruption, high levels of unemployment, and the slow pace of land reform, which is bound to raise emotions ahead of elections. 

The ANC has promised to amend the constitution so that it will be easier to expropriate white-owned farms without compensation, but its opponents to the right of the political spectrum have vowed to resist the plan. 

In Malawi, President Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party will be battling a strong opposition which hopes that voters fed up with electricity blackouts, drug shortages and corruption will propel them to power. 

A leaked report from the country's elite Anti-Corruption Bureau accused Mutharika of receiving a $195,000 bribe from a contractor tasked with supplying $4 million worth of rations to Malawi's police. He has faced no formal charges.

Former president Joyce Banda of the People’s Party will be running against Mutharika in the election due in May. She lost to him in 2014 by a wide margin, in fact coming third behind Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party.

Banda has joined anti-government pressure groups in calling for the president to resign – though she was herself implicated in a vast corruption scandal in 2013 which contributed to her defeat in polls a year later.

Nearby Mozambique will hold presidential, legislative and provincial elections in October, President Filipe Nyusi of the ruling Mozambican Liberation Front (Frelimo) recently announced.

The date was unveiled amid negotiations on consolidating peace between his government and the former rebels of the Mozambique National Resistance (Renamo). A truce is currently in effect.

Renamo and the ruling Frelimo fought a 16-year civil war that ended with a peace deal in 1992, but Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama, who lost five presidential elections, and took up arms again in 2013, died last year. Ossufo Momade has been appointed interim leader.

Renamo has long sought greater decentralisation of power, including elections for provincial governors and the creation of district assemblies, and better integration of its supporters into the country’s police and military.

The country is in an economic crisis, related to secret debts contracted to fight Renamo. The International Monetary Fund and the Western international community suspended cooperation.

The government has now outlined plans to try and control spending, especially the public payroll that absorbs 55 per cent of tax revenue.

Still, analysts suggest that Nyusi, who is eligible to run for one more term, is expected to win this year’s elections.

There is some evidence that Renamo is making gains in the central and northern regions of the country, but not enough to suggest it poses a credible electoral threat, especially as its leadership is now up for grabs.

Frelimo has been victorious in the five multiparty elections since 1994, although the opposition has always alleged fraud, especially in 1999, when it almost won.

Indian's Eastern Tribal States Are a World Apart

By Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

Virtually cut off from the rest of India by Bangladesh on one side and Bhutan and Sikkim on the other, Assam and the small tribal states of northeastern India are a world unto themselves. 

Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura were all created to satisfy demands by small ethnic groups whose languages and religions differ from that of Hindu-majority India.

Nagaland, carved out of Assam in 1963, comprises sixteen separate tribes, each with its own distinct customs, language and dress. However, English is the official language and spoken by most people.

The vast majority of the population of almost two million is Christian, with 75 per cent adhering to the Baptist Protestant faith.

Christianity arrived in Nagaland in the early 19th century with American Baptist missionaries and Nagaland’s people are devoutly religious. 

Manipur, a princely state under the British, was more closely aligned with neighbouring Burma than with India. Its three million people speak a variety of Sino-Tibetan languages.

It was made a union territory in 1956 and a state in 1972.

Hinduism and Christianity are each practiced by some 41 per cent of the state’s population, the latter brought by missionaries in the 19^th century.

Meghalaya was also formed in 1972, by severing two districts from the state of Assam.

About 75 per cent of the population of three million practices Christianity, with Presbyterians, Baptists and Roman Catholics the most common denominations.

Here, too, English is the official, and widely spoken, language of the state. The two largest native languages, Khasi and Garo, are affiliated with the Mon-Khmer and Tibeto-Burman families of east and south Asia, respectively.

Mizoram, too, was part of Assam until 1972, though it didn’t become a full-fledged state until fifteen years later.

Its one million residents are of diverse tribal origins who settled in the state, mostly from Southeast Asia, mainly in the 18th century. It has the highest concentration of tribal people among all of India’s states.

Mizo, a member of the Sino-Tibetan family, is the official language, spoken by 70 per cent of the inhabitants, but English is widely used.

The majority of Mizos, some 87 per cent, are Christians in various denominations, predominantly Presbyterian. Other major denominations include Baptists, Pentecostals and Seventh-Day Adventists.

Buddhism is practiced by most of the remaining population.

Tripura’s 3.7 million people were once part of the Tripuri Kingdom, a princely state in the British Indian empire.

It became a union territory in1956 and a state in 1972.

About 70 per cent of the state’s population comprises Bengali-speaking Hindus, the rest are mostly Tripuri. 

Arunachal Pradesh shares international borders with Bhutan in the west, Burma in the east, and China’s Tibetan autonomous region in the north.

It was known as the North-East Frontier Agency until it became a union territory in 1972. It acquired statehood in 1987.

Its population of 1.4 million can be roughly divided into semi-distinct cultural spheres, on the basis of tribal identity, language, and religion.

Many groups practice traditional indigenous religions, while the remaining population is divided between Christians, at 30.2 per cent, and Hindus at 29.4 per cent.

The state is one of the linguistically richest and most diverse regions in all of Asia, being home to at least 30 distinct languages in addition to innumerable dialects and subdialects.

Most of the languages belong to the Tibeto-Burman family.

Assam itself still has more than 31 million people, of which 61.4 per cent were Hindus and 34.2 Muslim.

An Indo-Aryan language, Assamese is the state’s official language and spoken by almost half the population. Bengali is the second most widely spoken language of the state, at 29 per cent.

Most Indians outside the region know little of these fringe states, but their relative obscurity has allowed them to retain their own cultures.

The Iranian Revolution is Stronger Than Ever After 40 Years

By Henry Srebrnik, [Summerside, PEI] Journal Pioneer
 

On Feb. 1,1979, Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini landed at Tehran’s Mehrabad International Airport, after more than 14 years in exile. And the world changed forever.

An Iranian monarchy that had seemed so secure had now crumbled into dust and the country’s ruler, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, had already fled the country.

A few months later, at a talk I gave in Toronto, I suggested that this would prove to be an event even more important that the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution in Russia.

I was right. The Soviet Union no longer exists, while Iran’s Islamic Republic goes from strength to strength. 

Iran remains a very strong state, supported by a robust form of religiously-based nationalism. It exports its ideology throughout the Middle East and farther afield. It provides weapons to proxies and supports terrorism, while also working diligently to destroy Israel.

How did all this come about? It all began in 1963, when the Shah instituted a series of measures intended to accelerate Iran’s modernization and strengthen and centralize his power. These reforms were known as the White Revolution.

The powerful Shi’a clergy were enraged both by their reduced power and authority, and by the increased penetration of Western culture. One of the strongest voices against these reforms came from a cleric named Khomeini, who issued a strongly worded declaration denouncing the Shah and his plans.

In return, he was arrested and then exiled to Turkey. He then settled in the Shi’ite holy city of Najaf in Iraq, where he continued to call for the Shah’s overthrow. Forced to leave Iraq in October 1978, Khomeini moved to a suburb of Paris – but not for long.

Following his return to Iran, Khomeini oversaw the writing of the country’s new constitution, which has been called a hybrid of theocratic and democratic elements. While there are elections for the presidency and the Majlis, or parliament, they are subordinate to the Council of Guardians, a clerical body, and the Supreme Leader. 

As the highest-ranking political and religious authority in the nation, the Ayatollah became the country’s ruler, and governed until his death on June 3, 1989. His successor, Ali Khamenei, rules today.

It hasn’t always been smooth sailing for the regime. The mullahs had to cope with the brutal invasion unleashed by Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in 1980; the eight-year conflict resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iranians. 

They have also faced resistance from their own people at times; for example, there were major disturbances in 2009 following the clearly rigged re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 

The regime was forced to respond with violence, and many hundreds of protestors died or were imprisoned in the post-election unrest. 

A year ago, Iranians, facing economic hardships, poured into the streets to denounce ­Supreme Leader Khamenei. But the clerical establishment has always weathered these storms. In fact, Tehran has taken advantage of the chaos unleashed by the Arab Spring by expanding its reach across the Middle East. 

It now virtually controls the fates of Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria, and supports a Shi’a uprising in Yemen. The Sunni Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, now live in fear of Iran, so much so that they are even prepared to work with Israel. Iran has even had covert contacts with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The United States for the past four decades has used both the carrot and the stick approach when dealing with Tehran. 

President Barack Obama tried to reason with the regime’s political leaders; this culminated in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed by Washington along with China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.

Under the accord, Iran agreed to limit its sensitive nuclear activities and allow in international inspectors in return for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions that had been imposed on Tehran.

On May 8, 2018, President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the deal and re-imposed sanctions. He has been far more outspoken about the dangers posed by the regime.

Tehran was probably continuing the work on developing nuclear weapons in any case. Should they eventually succeed, Tel Aviv will disappear from the face of the earth. The Iranian mullahs should never be underestimated.