Houthis are Playing With Fire, Literally

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Fredericton, NB] Daily Gleaner

The Houthis struck the Israeli community of Ashkelon on December 25, the fifth such attack on the Jewish state in that week.

A Zaydi Shi’a Muslim armed movement in Yemen, they have advanced weapons that include cruise and surface-to-surface missiles, as well as drones. These assets are spread out over large areas and are difficult to reach, making it challenging for Israel to create a bank of targets.

Israeli airstrikes in turn have targeted the international airport in the capital, Sana’a, and ports at Hodeida, Al-Salif and Ras Qantib, along with fuel depots and power stations. The Israeli strikes were carried out by fighter jets, refuelers, and spy planes. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel would act against the Houthis with the same force it used against Iran’s other “terrorist arms.”

Ranked 183rd out of 191 nations in terms of its economy, Yemen is a poverty-stricken state. It has an annual per capita income of just $477 (compared to $3,372 in the Palestinian territories). Around two-thirds of its population – roughly 30 million people – live with food insecurity or outright hunger.

Today, the Houthis rule over northwestern Yemen, controlling approximately one-third of the country’s territory and two-thirds of its population of 34 million, following a vicious civil war that began in September 2014 when their forces captured the capital, Sana’a, followed by a rapid takeover of the government. Ties between Iran and the Houthis expanded markedly when the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, regional rivals of Tehran, launched a military campaign against the Houthis in 2015.

But since the start of the Gaza war, these Yemeni militants have turned their weapons on Israel, both via missile attacks and by a maritime blockade in the Red Sea. During that time, the group, which is in control of northern Yemen, has launched over 1,000 projectiles at Israel, at international shipping in the Red Sea, and at the Western coalition seeking to defend both Israel and the shipping.

A proxy of Iran and a member of its Axis of Resistance network, the Houthis have fired on ships, seized one vessel, and sunk two others in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. They have upended shipping routes, cut sharply into the revenues of the Suez Canal in Egypt, and have had a negative effect on the global economy.

Iran is ultimately at fault because it supplies the Houthis with weapons and encourages them to behave like pirates. But so far the various navies in the region, including the American Fifth Fleet, whose area of operations includes the Arabian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, Red Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean, have done too little to break it.

Until these recent strikes aimed at Israeli territory, the most significant damage the Houthis have caused to Israel has come from cutting off the Eilat port’s Red Sea lifeline.

Deterrence vis-à-vis the Houthis would have some important benefits -- ending the groups missile and drone fire on southern and central Israel as well as re-opening Eilat’s port for business -- but it will be fleeting.

If the Houthi regime is allowed to continue to build up its military power and entrench its control, future confrontations will be at the time and place of their choosing. So Israel must set realistic aims for the extent to which it can reshape Yemen’s strategic environment or remake its political order.

The Houthis, however, remain defiant. “We will not stop until the aggression against our people in Gaza ceases,” Hazem al-Asad, a member of the Houthi’ political bureau, insisted Dec. 24.  “The Houthis are stronger, more technically proficient, and more prominent members of the Axis of Resistance than they were at the war’s outset, Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, wrote in October.

“The Houthis have arguably weathered the year of war without suffering major setbacks,” he pointed out in “A Draw Is a Win: The Houthis After One Year of War,” in the CTC Sentinel, published at the United States Military Academy at West Point. “They appear to have lost no senior leaders and no terrain since the war began, nor have they been notably economically damaged and the Houthi currency remains more stable than that of the internationally recognized government of Yemen.”

Their drones, missiles and other projectiles are highlighting a dilemma: how to defeat an enemy armed with a relatively cheaper and comparatively ample stockpile of weapons.

As a result the Houthis are becoming more prominent members of the Axis of Resistance and their leader Abdul-Malik Badruldeen al-Houthi is even being touted as potentially taking the place of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by Israel last September, and acting as a symbolic head of the pro-Iran alliance.

“In the absence of Nasrallah, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi has moved swiftly to fill the void,” remarked Mohammed Albasha, a U.S.-based security analyst who specializes in the Middle East and Yemen. “The Houthis have seized the spotlight.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced penalties Dec. 19 on Hashem al-Madani, the governor of the central bank in Houthi-controlled Sana’a, along with several Houthi officials and companies. He was described as the “primary overseer of funds sent to the Houthis” by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Is it “January 6” in Georgia?

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

You remember January 6, 2021, or “J 6” as some now refer to it. It was, according to many, an “insurrection” or “coup” designed to topple democracy in America, egged on by Donald Trump, who claimed that the 2020 election had been stolen by Joe Biden.

The rioters sought to keep Trump in power by preventing a joint session of Congress from formalizing Biden’s victory, and some participated in vandalism and looting. Within 36 hours, five people had died. More than one thousand participants were arrested, with about two-thirds receiving a jail sentence.

Anyhow, it appears the American voters have “moved on,” as they say, in 2024. Trump is back and most of those jailed participants, some of whom received very long prison terms, will probably be pardoned.

Why bring this up? Because a similar thing is happening now in the former Soviet republic of Georgia in the Caucasus – but in this case, it’s the “democrat” who has lost, to a pro-Russian candidate, and refuses to accept the result.

On Dec. 29, Mikheil Kavelashvili, a hardline critic of the West, was inaugurated as the country’s new president. An electoral college dominated by the ruling pro-Moscow Georgian Dream party chose a man known for his vehement anti-West views.

Following the vote, Georgian Dream party Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said Kavelashvili’s election “will make a significant contribution to strengthening Georgia’s statehood and our sovereignty, as well as reducing radicalism and so-called polarization.” The main mission of the presidential institution “is to care for the unity of the nation and society,” he added.

But outgoing President Salome Zourabichvili declared Kavelashvili’s presidency illegitimate in a speech to supporters outside the presidential palace. “I remain the only legitimate president,” she told them. “I will leave the presidential palace and stand with you, carrying with me the legitimacy, the flag and your trust.” She called the appointment of her successor “a mockery of democracy.”

The country has been embroiled in political turmoil since contested parliamentary elections in October that saw the pro-Moscow Georgian Dream party get over 54 per cent of the votes. The opposition United National Movement contended that the elections had been falsified and the vote “stolen from the Georgian people.” They consider this as a further blow to the country’s European aspirations.

There have been pro-European Union protests since, with claims that the ruling party is pulling Georgia back towards Russian influence and that the Georgian bid to join the European Union has been undermined. Several ambassadors and a deputy foreign minister have resigned over the decision to suspend EU accession talks for four years. More than 400 people have been arrested during the protests, with many accusing authorities of beating them. Prime Minister Kobakhidze has vowed to “eradicate” the country’s opposition. “These recent developments mark the start of the end of liberal fascism in Georgia,” he said

Former president Zourabichvili has emerged as the face of the nationwide anti-government, pro-EU protests, which she defines as “a resistance movement” against the pro-Russian government. But is she simply a puppet of the West? Her biography might suggest that.

Salome Zourabichvili was born in Paris in 1952, into a family of Georgian political emigres. After graduating from top schools in Paris and New York, for more than 30 years she dedicated herself to French diplomacy with postings in the United States, Italy and Chad before returning to her historical homeland, where she served as France’s ambassador to Georgia. 

In 2004, by mutual agreement between the presidents of France and Georgia, she became the Georgian foreign minister. During her tenure, Zourabichvili signed key agreements with NATO and the EU and negotiated the partial withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgian territory. 

But you can be sure America’s liberal left will see this as a fight on behalf of democracy, rather than an extra-legal “insurrection.” In fact the United States has sanctioned senior officials in Georgia’s government in response to the repression of the pro-EU protesters.

“The United States strongly condemns the Georgian Dream party’s brutal and unjustified violence against Georgian citizens, protesters, members of the media, and opposition figures,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

Kobakhidze hopes for better relations with Washington after Donald Trump becomes president. It appears “democracy” is a term that refers to elections only when Washington approves of the victors. So he’s probably right.