By Henry Srebrnik, Moncton Times &Transcript
Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, is on trial in the country’s Supreme Court, accused of masterminding a plot to stage a coup after he lost the 2022 presidential elections to leftist candidate Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva. Another 33 people have been charged, including former ministers and generals.
It marks the first time in Brazilian history that a former head of state is being tried for attempting to overthrow the government. His supporters also attacked Brazil’s Congress building and Presidential offices in Brasilia on Jan. 8, 2023.
Federal police earlier this year released two reports that detailed the accusations, including that he personally edited a decree for a national state of emergency designed to prevent the election’s winner from taking office. Bolsonaro has denied plotting a coup but admitted that he had “studied other alternatives within the Constitution” that would allow him to remain in power after his electoral defeat. He abandoned the plan after leaders of Brazil’s military refused to take part. If convicted, he could face up to 12 years in prison. Bolsonaro, a former army officer, has praised Brazil’s military dictatorship which lasted from 1964 to 1985.
Bolsonaro has already been barred from running for office until 2030, but is hoping that Congress will overturn his election ban. He called the ruling “a rape of democracy” and said he was trying to find a way to run in next year’s presidential election.
If you think this sounds similar to what happened to Donald Trump when he was defeated by Joe Biden in the 2020 election and then saw his supporters storm the U.S. Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, you’re not alone. The president thinks so too and isn’t letting it go unnoticed. He has singled out Brazil for import tariffs of 50 per cent, to take effect on Aug. 1, for its treatment of its former president.
When Bolsonaro won the presidency in 2018, many people called him the “Trump of the Tropics.” I guess they weren’t kidding. Like Trump’s refusal to acknowledge his defeat in 2020, Bolsonaro has also rejected the 2022 Brazilian result, when he lost to the left-wing Lula.
Trump has described Bolsonaro as a friend and reminded people that he hosted Bolsonaro at the White House in 2019 and at his Mar-a-Lago resort in 2020 when both were in power. In Trump’s first term, few world leaders were a more reliable ally than Bolsonaro.
After Trump lost the 2020 election, Bolsonaro publicly questioned the results and was one of the last heads of state to recognize Biden’s victory. And after Bolsonaro was defeated in Brazil’s 2022 vote, he left for self-imposed exile in Florida for several months, only returning to Brazil at the end of March in 2023.
On the other hand, Lula felt a political kinship with Biden as two leaders who saw themselves as having overcome attempted insurrections, and last year, Lula openly supported Kamala Harris against Trump.
Seeking to obtain explicit support, Bolsonaro’s third son, Eduardo, a member of Brazil’s Congress and his family’s most eloquent international voice, took a leave from his legislative duties and moved to the U.S. early this year. He did so to lobby on behalf of his father. It seems to have worked.
“This trial should not be taking place,” President Trump wrote in a July 9 letter posted on his Truth Social website. He called Bolsonaro’s prosecution a “witch hunt” which should be ended immediately. “I have watched, as has the world, as they have done nothing but come after him, day after day, night after night, month after month, year after year! He is not guilty of anything, except having fought for the people.”
Delighted by Trump's statement, Bolsonaro wrote on X: “Thank you for being there and for setting an example of faith and resilience.”
This would certainly hurt Brazil economically. “He’s found that tariffs can be a very effective weapon modifying the behaviour of other countries,” according to Wilbur Ross, who served as commerce secretary in Trump’s first term.
Legal experts questioned whether the president had the authority to issue tariffs in pursuit of purely political objectives. Is a Brazilian political issue a threat to U.S. economic or national security? That’s doubtful.
Meanwhile, Lula has rejected what he called “interference or threats” by the U.S. and stated that he would respond, while maintaining that Bolsonaro “is the sole responsibility of the Brazilian Judiciary. Brazil is a sovereign nation with independent institutions and will not accept any form of tutelage.”
Brazil is apparently weighing imposing tariffs on specific American products or sectors, the government does not plan to apply broad-based tariffs on all American products. The United States is Brazil’s second biggest trading partner, after China and accounts for roughly 12 per cent of all Brazil’s exports. One possible impact of tariffs could be higher coffee prices in the United States. Brazil is the world’s biggest producer of coffee, and the U.S. is its biggest customer.
But recent polls show Lula losing to most potential candidates in next year’s election. Assuming Bolsonaro remains ineligible, the most likely winner would be the current governor of Sao Paulo, Tarcisio Gomes de Freitas, who served as the minister of infrastructure for Bolsonaro. The parallel to the 2024 American presidential election is apt.