Cuba Falters Under Trump’s Pressure

 By Henry Srebrnik, Saint John Telegraph-Journal

On New Years Day of 1959, Fidel Castro’s 26^th of July Movement swept into Havana and unseated the corrupt Fulgencio Batista. The announcement interrupted a bowl game on television. That was 67 years ago.

The Cuban revolution animated the North American left, even before the disaster that was the Vietnam War turned it into a mass movement. The left-wing and influential sociologist C. Wright Mills visited the island and published Listen, Yankee: The Revolution in Cuba a year later. And Che Guevara’s picture on a poster became arguably the most famous piece of pop art in the world.

I visited Cuba in 1975 – before the era of mass tourism. The fires of revolutionary fervour were still present. I also wrote an MA thesis on Cuban-American relations. But that was then, this is now.

The island of 9.6 million inhabitants, under an American economic embargo since 1962, has been mired in a severe economic crisis for six years. But recently, things got much worse, following President Nicolas Maduro’s removal from power in Venezuela Jan. 3. It has been Cuba’s primary source of oil. “Cuba looks like it is ready to fall,” U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters on Air Force One.

On Jan. 29, Trump signed an executive order that would levy tariffs on any country “that directly or indirectly sells or otherwise provides any oil to Cuba.” Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel accused the U.S. of “fascist state terrorism” and “imperialist barbarism.” But rumours that the Cuban government is talking with the Trump administration about ending one-party rule persist.

Maduro had helped prop up the communist government with Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, sending the country about 25,000 barrels of oil per day in 2023 and 10,000 in 2024 and 2025. Despite the ongoing Cuban energy crisis, much of the oil provided to Cuba by Maduro was resold by Havana to acquire desperately needed cash for other uses.

Cuba’s other major supplier, Mexico, also ended its provision of oil to the island. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum denied that the decision was made as a result of American pressure, but everyone knows better. She needs to stay on Trump’s good graces as negotiations on a new USMCA free trade deal ramp up.

The issue of oil shipments to Cuba is a fraught one for Sheinbaum, who is striving to show the Trump administration that Mexico is a partner on trade and security without alienating the left wing of her party, Morena. So Cuba will be reduced to relying on shipments from Russia, which is expected to supply Cuba with oil as part of a “humanitarian” effort. Cuba’s own heavy oil can only cover about 40 per cent of the country’s overall energy consumption. But it’s ill-suited for most fuels, so it's mainly used for power generation.

To deal with fuel shortages, the government Feb. 9 announced that international airlines can no longer refuel there. Gas can only be bought with foreign currency at dollar-only gas stations. The fuel shortage will also affect train travel. Domestic routes will operate every eight days per destination.

Ending Communist domination on the island has long been a goal of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, himself of Cuban extraction, and the prospect of forcing out the remnants of the Castro regime was reportedly one of the motives for the U.S. raid on Venezuela. Rubio told the Cuban government that it “should be concerned.”

In 1962, the United States imposed a full trade embargo on Cuba, following Deputy Assistant Secretary Lester Mallory’s recommendation three years earlier to deny “money and supplies to Cuba, to decrease monetary and real wages, to bring about hunger, desperation, and overthrow of the government.”

In 1996, Congress hardened the embargo by passing the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity (LIBERTAD) Act, known as Helms-Buron, which extended the ban beyond U.S. borders. It explicitly sought to expedite the collapse of the Cuban government by discouraging foreign business investment.

Eyeing possible regime change in Cuba, American corporations now see an opportunity to recoup assets lost in revolutionary seizures many decades ago. In 1960, Castro authorized Law 851, allowing the Cuban government to expropriate U.S.-owned or controlled property.

The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear lawsuits that could help corporate interests recoup hundreds of millions of dollars in long-expropriated Cuban assets if the United States seizes control of the nation.

The Court will hear arguments for Exxon Mobil Corp. v. Corporación Cimex, S.A. and Havana Docks Corporation v. Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd. on Feb. 23. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the corporate plaintiffs, it could create new avenues for private actors to capitalize on regime change.

Canadian tourists have been a mainstay of the Cuban economy, but even that is now threatened. The federal government raised its advisory level Feb. 4 for travel to Cuba, warning Canadians that worsening shortages could also affect resorts. And three Canadian airlines have suspended flights to the island.

Princeton University history professor Ada Ferrer, whose book Cuba, an American History won the 2022 Pulitzer Prize in history, told the New York Times that past predictions of the fall of the Cuban government had been wrong. But now there’s no benefactor waiting in the wings to save Cuba’s crashing economy. It’s come to this. Quite sad.

 

South Africa Contends With its Zulu Nation

 

By Henry Srebrnik, Saint John Telegraph-Journal

Most people, when they think about race relations and ethnic conflict in South Africa, assume it relates to Black and white South Africans. While that is usually the case, this sometimes ignores issues between the various Black ethnic groups in the country.

Indigenous Africans make up more than 80 per cent of the population of 63 million, and they include a variety of peoples, who speak at least nine major languages. The Zulu and Xhosa, the two largest ethnic nations, have been the most prominent politically since the end of white-minority apartheid rule.

Zululand, a region in the northeastern section of present-day KwaZulu-Natal (formerly Natal) province, is the home of the Zulu people and site of their 19th-century kingdom, when their leader, Shaka, established dominance over what is now KwaZulu-Natal. By 1822, Shaka had conquered an empire covering an area of around 210,000 square kilometres.

The Zulu fought the Afrikaner Boers in the 1830-1840, including at the famous 1838 Battle of Blood River. Meanwhile, the British moved into nearby Natal and annexed it in 1843.

In the age of British imperialism in Asia and Africa, various peoples were designated as “martial races,” based on the idea that they were “typically brave and well-built for fighting.” Among them were the Sikhs in India, the Gurkhas in Nepal, and, in Africa, the Zulus.

The Zulus “earned” this description in the Anglo-Zulu war of 1879, which included the Zulu victory in the Battle of Isandlwana. The British Army suffered its worst defeat against an indigenous foe equipped with vastly inferior military technology. Isandlwana resulted in the British leading a heavily reinforced second invasion, and eventual victory. They made Zululand a crown colony in 1887 and annexed it to Natal in 1897.

All of this happened more than a century ago, so what has it to do with modern South African politics? A lot. The Zulu are the largest ethnic group in South Africa, with approximately ten million people residing primarily in the KwaZulu-Natal province. They have preserved their language and culture, maintaining a traditional monarchy within South Africa’s democratic framework, and they retain a strong sense of nationhood.

In the early 1970s, a Bantustan called KwaZulu was formed as a homeland for the Zulu people. Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi was elected as Chief Executive of KwaZulu. He was also the leader of the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), which he founded in 1975 and led until 2019. Buthelezi, who died in 2023, became representative of the Zulu people, along with King Goodwill Zwelithini, who was his nephew.

In the early 1990s, apartheid (along with its Bantustans), was dismantled, and South Africa’s first fully democratic elections took place in April 1994. The IFP contested these elections and won 10.54 per cent of the national vote and a majority in the KwaZulu-Natal province. As an ethnic regional party, Inkatha supported devolution of power to provincial governments and autonomy for traditional African communities and their leaders. This led to a virtual civil war for years between Zulu Inkatha supporters and members of Nelson Mandela’s ruling African National Congress.

Zulus remain a powerful force nationally. Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma, a Zulu, served as the president of South Africa from 2009 to 2018, until forced out of office due to controversies around political and financial corruption.

Last month, the current Zulu king demanded that all foreigners must leave the country, during a speech that was supposed to have been aimed at calming anti-migrant feelings in KwaZulu-Natal. Misuzulu kaZwelithini was addressing his supporters at the place where 20,000 Zulus warriors defeated a British contingent of 1,800 soldiers 147 years ago beneath the rocky outcrop of Isandlwana Hill. His words carry significant weight among Zulus, who view him as a custodian of tradition and a powerful moral authority. 

The ire of many of King Misuzulu’s subjects is now directed not at British invaders but at migrants from neighbouring countries like Lesotho, Mozambique and Zimbabwe who have come to South Africa to work. According to official statistics, the country is home to about 2.4 million migrants, about four percent of the population.

Xenophobia and anger directed at migrants remains a key political issue, with some believing foreigners are stealing jobs and benefiting from public services meant for South Africans. The rate of unemployment in the country remains one of the highest in the world at around 33 per cent.

This has led in recent years to the rise of vigilante anti-migrant groups, like Operation Dudula and March on March, which have gained notoriety for their demands that foreign nationals be removed from the country. An angry group of protesters descended on a primary school in the KwaZulu-Natal port city of Durban, claiming that 90 per cent of the pupils there were the children of migrants.

The king also wants to drop Natal from KwaZulu-Natal’s name. Over the last three decades, many cities, towns and roads in South Africa have been renamed, replacing them with indigenous ones or calling them after heroes of the struggle against apartheid.

But for some commentators, the call to name the province simply KwaZulu is an unpalatable reminder of Zulu nationalism and its potential dangers. There are fears that renaming it could create a kind of exceptionalism that could lead to yet more trouble in this ethnically diverse country.