Are Iranian Rulers Ready for Democracy and Rapprochement with the U.S.?

Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

Late in December, the Iranian city of Bam suffered a terrible earthquake, and some 30,000 lives were lost. Aid poured in from everywhere in the world, including Canada, and even from what the Iranian Shi’ite theocracy refers to as the “Great Satan,” the United States.

This was a tragedy of immense proportions, and no person could fail but be touched by the anguish and suffering, as thousands more mourned their dead and slept in the cold beside their demolished homes.

Yet, despite this disaster, the Iranian government accepted American aide grudgingly, finally conceding that the U.S. can have a humanitarian sensibility in “certain cases.” It seemed that for a while they were considering trading the lives of their own people for an ideology.

The Achilles heel of the West, on the other hand, is clearly its sense of decency, which means it can be taken advantage of. The U.S. sent in experts and huge amounts of relief supplies, making the country one of the largest international donors.

Yet, unfortunately, by pouring aid into Iran, was not the U.S. helping--since money is fungible--Tehran free up funds with which to finance ongoing terrorist operations in neighboring Iraq, where American soldiers are being killed, as some have alleged?

I suppose Washington thinks it is winning the hearts and minds of ordinary Iranians this way. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell remarked that he sees a “new attitude” in Iran and hoped that relations between the two countries might improve.

But Iranian President Mohammad Khatami downplayed speculation that Washington’s contribution might result in a resumption of diplomatic relations, severed in 1979 following the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran.

Also, the 12 members of the Guardian Council, who are conservative clerics chosen by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, soon afterwards disqualified more than 80 legislators, all reformists, from seeking another term in upcoming parliamentary elections in February. They were deemed to oppose Ayatollah Khamenei’s absolute rule.

In response, parliament passed a bill to overturn the disqualifications, but the Guardian Council vetoed the legislation on the grounds that it contradicted the constitution and Sharia (Islamic) law. Unless Iran’s constitution is amended, the clerics retain the ultimate power.

Given this reality, and also the evidence of the past 25 years, when it comes to predicting the chances of reformers loosening the grip of the religious hierarchy in Iran, it is wise to remain skeptical rather than hopeful.