Why John Kerry will win the American Presidency

Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

With just one day to go before election day in the United States, most polls show President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry running neck and neck, both in the popular vote and in the Electoral College totals.

The Electoral College works this way: each of the 50 states is allocated a number of electors equal to the number of its U.S. senators--they all have two-- plus the number of members in its congressional delegation in the House of Representatives, which varies by population.

So California, the largest state, has 55 electoral votes, while small ones like Alaska and Wyoming have only three. As well, the District of Columbia, the federal capital of Washington, gets three electoral votes.

In 48 of the states, whoever wins the popular vote gets all of the electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska both use an alternative method. These states divide themselves into a number of districts, and the winner of each district is awarded that district's electoral vote. (Maine has four electoral votes, Nebraska five.)

So the election really consists of 51 separate contests. As there are 538 electoral college votes, whoever wins 270 or more becomes president.

I have been following the contest state by state, and I predict a Kerry victory. In fact, I am surprised at how big the electoral college margin for Kerry looks to be, if the states all go the way I think they will.

The popular vote, nationwide, will be as follows: John Kerry 52.5%; George Bush 47%; Ralph Nader, 0.5%. This will translate into more or less the following electoral college numbers: John Kerry 317; George Bush 221.

Why will Kerry win so handily?

The major elite disseminators of public opinion--the university professoriat and important newspapers such as the New York Times and the Washington Post-- all in the main support Kerry. The perception of Bush as an intellectual lightweight by these groups was reinforced during the three presidential debates, in which Bush was clearly no match for the more articulate Massachusetts senator.

On the level of popular culture, Hollywood personalities, film makers and rock stars are doing their utmost to sway people on his behalf. They will influence many wavering or undecided voters. Michael Moore alone has been worth thousands of votes.

Voter registration is way up in many states, and most of these new voters, in particular African-Americans and Hispanics, will favor Kerry.

The Kerry campaign's ads, in particular those produced by so-called "527" independent advocacy groups, have been much more effective than those put out by pro-Republican groups.

The Democrats are still fired up over having had the 2000 election "stolen" (in their eyes) from them in Florida. The Supreme Court intervened and stopped the recount thus giving the election to Bush. Al Gore, remember, won the overall popular vote that year. There is for many Democrats an almost visceral hatred of Bush.

Both the Iraq war and the domestic economy also work against Bush. Unemployment and job losses due to outsourcing are a major factor in swing states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, and a declining stock market has reflected this despondency. The ballooning deficit, due to massive military spending and tax cuts, and record-breaking oil and gas prices, have also been sources of concern.

More than 1,100 Americans have been killed in Iraq, in a war that shows no signs of ending. Kerry, like Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 during the Korean War, and Richard Nixon in 1968, when Vietnam was the major issue, claims he will somehow get America out of this quagmire. Bush, on the other hand, appears adrift.

And the Democrats are also responsible for spreading a "whispering campaign" about the possible re-institution of the draft. This scares middle class voters, who don't want their kids blown up or beheaded in Iraq.

Bush's pro-life stance and opposition to gay marriage and stem cell research will indeed win him votes among his evangelical Christian base, but may cost him more among moderately liberal Republicans.

And when things aren't going well, the incumbent gets blamed even for matters beyond his control, such as the shortage of flu vaccine in the U.S. this fall.

Finally, left-wing candidate Ralph Nader, who captured almost 3% of the popular vote in 2000 and cost Gore some states, including Florida, will not be a spoiler in this polarized election climate. Almost all of his supporters will move into the Kerry column.

In 2000, Bush won 271 electoral votes to Gore's 266. But in 2004, Bush is facing a "perfect storm" and it is hard to see him surviving it. The political stars are aligned against him.