Is “Arab Spring” Now Stalled? 

Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

As spring gives way to summer, the "Arab Awakening" seems stalled.

While dictators in Egypt and Tunisia were fairly easily removed by pro-democracy forces, the autocrats that have ruled Libya, Syria and Yemen for decades are not going quietly into the night.

Despite months of bombardment by NATO, and the loss of about half the country to opposition forces, Moammar Gadhafi remains defiant in Tripoli, and shows no signs of exiting willingly.

This should come as no surprise to those who have observed this megalomaniac's behaviour over the four decades he has terrorized his people.

Meanwhile, the Assad clan that has been in power in Syria since 1970 is fighting for its life and seems willing to use whatever it takes to stay in power. At least 1,400 protesters have been killed since the uprising began some 12 weeks ago, and thousands more have fled across the border into Turkey.

Jisr al-Shughour, a town of 50,000, became the latest focus of the Syrian government's efforts to crush the rebellion. Security forces sent in tanks and attack helicopters to recapture the town.

The armed forces had already used similar tactics in other cities, and parts of the capital, Damascus.

Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, took over after his father, Hafez, died in 2000. The Assads have used the Ba'ath Party apparatus to run a tightly-controlled despotic one-party state.

The Assads are members of the Alawi offshoot of Shia Islam, while most Syrians are Sunni Muslims and consider the sect heretical.

In 1982, Hafez al-Assad crushed an uprising in Homs led by Sunni Islamists, killing at least 25,000 people and razing much of the city. Should the regime fall, there would probably be a bloody settling of accounts, so Bashar has little choice but to fight to the death.

Yemen, the poorest Arab state, has descended into political chaos. About half of the population is functionally illiterate, and most Yemenis identify themselves as members of tribes that often battle each other over the scarce resources of the country.

The present-day Yemeni state was formed in 1990, when the north, an ancient Arab kingdom and then a republic, united with the south, the former British colony of Aden and later a Marxist-ruled "people's democratic republic."

President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had been in power in the north since 1978, has ruled the loosely unified Republic of Yemen since 1990.

The protests in the country started at the end of January, when some 16,000 demonstrators took to the streets in the capital, Sana'a, demanding the end of Saleh's rule.

First he said he would not stand for re-election in 2013 and then he promised he would oversee a "transition" to democracy. This did not satisfy his opponents, who did not trust him to keep his word. They proved to be correct.

But the pro-democracy movement, based largely in urban areas, was overtaken by older divisions within Yemeni society.

Saleh decided to transform the conflict from a protest movement against an autocratic leader into a military conflict between the state and leading tribal rivals, and hoped in this way to remain in power.

At the end of May, he unleashed his guns on the forces of Sadiq al-Ahmar, leader of the powerful Hashed tribal confederation (of which Saleh himself is a member). The Hashed and Bakil, followers of Zaidi Shi'ism, are two large tribal groupings in north Yemen that historically have been important sources of power in the country.

This was a calculated gamble - but it proved to be a mistake. Opposition tribesmen left the mountains for the capital to reinforce Hashed fighters. Soon, intense fighting erupted in Sana'a.

Saleh and several others were injured and at least five people were killed by the June 3 bombing of the presidential compound. Badly wounded, Saleh flew to neighbouring Saudi Arabia for treatment and transferred power temporarily to his vice president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.

To add to the turmoil in the country, another group of Zaidi Shi'ites, the Houthis, based in the northwest of the country, have been waging a rebellion against the central government since 2004.

As well, Islamist militants suspected of links to al-Qaida have taken over two towns, including Zinjibar, the capital of Abyan province, in southern Yemen.

Whether he returns or not, Saleh has left a country on the verge of civil war and economic collapse, with a violent power struggle among rival tribes underway. Yemen has become a failed state, and democracy is nowhere on the horizon.