Control of Senate Vital in U.S. Election

Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

Most Canadians, understandably, are concentrating on the presidential race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. But there are other important contests underway in the general election. All 435 members of the House of Representatives are up for re-election, as are 33 members of the Senate.

The latter body of 100 members - two each from the 50 states -is the very powerful upper house of the U.S. Congress. Senators are elected for six-year terms, with one-third up for re-election every two years. The Democrats currently control the Senate, with 51 seats to the 47 held by Republicans.

Some senators in states that are heavily Democratic 'blue' or Republican 'red' are virtual shoo-ins. On the Democratic side, Diane Feinstein will easily win re-election in California, as will Kirsten Gillibrand in New York state.

Other Democratic incumbents with safe seats are Tom Carper in Delaware, Ben Cardin in Maryland, Debbie Stabinow in Michigan, Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota, Bob Menendez in New Jersey, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, Sheldon Whitehouse in Rhode Island, Maria Cantwell in Washington state, and Joe Manchin in West Virginia.

In liberal Vermont, socialist Bernie Sanders, who votes with the Democrats, will cruise to victory.

However, Montana might be a loss for Obama's party. Incumbent John Tester trails Republican challenger Dennis Rehber in many polls, though it's still too close to call.

Among Republicans, Roger Wicker in Mississippi, Bob Corker in Tennessee, Orin Hatch in Utah, and John Barrasso in Wyoming will retain their seats without any difficulty. In Nevada, incumbent Republican Dean Heller continues to hold a lead over the Democrat, Shelley Berkley.

In the swing state of Florida, the Senate winner will probably be determined by which presidential candidate carries the state. Incumbent Bill Nelson, the Democrat, faces Republican Connie Mack IV; in recent polls, the gap between Nelson and Mack has widened, in Nelson's favour.

In closely-contested Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown faces Republican Josh Mandel, and will be re-elected unless Romney wins the state by a considerable margin, which is unlikely.

There are a number of open seats, where the incumbent has left office, and some are toss-ups.

In Arizona, Republican Jeff Flake faces Richard Carmona, the Democrat; it will be close, but Flake will probably retain the seat for his party. In Connecticut, where Joe Lieberman, running as an independent, beat back challenges from both major parties in 2006, Linda McMahon, the Republican candidate, has remained competitive against the Democrat, Christopher Murphy. Connecticut is a strongly Democratic "blue" state, though, so Murphy should prevail; however, McMahon could conceivably gain this one for the Republicans.

The Democrats 'own' Hawaii, so Mazie Hirono will trounce the former Republican governor, Linda Lingle.

Longtime Republican senator Richard Lugar of Indiana lost the primary to a Tea Party candidate, Richard Mourdock, giving the Democrat challenger, Joe Donnelly, a fighting chance to take the seat away from the GOP.

In the 'red' state of Nebraska, where Democratic incumbent Ben Nelson has retired, former U.S. Senator Bob Kerrey, a Democrat, faces Republican Deb Fischer; the Republicans will gain this seat. 'Blue' state New Mexico, meanwhile, will elect Martin Heinrich, the Democrat, to replace fellow Democrat Jeff Bingaman.

North Dakota's Kent Conrad, a Democrat, has retired, and the race between Democrat Heidi Heitkamp and Republican Rick Berg is a virtual dead heat. In Texas, the open seat will remain Republican, with Ted Cruz, a Tea Party favourite, replacing outgoing Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Virginia is witnessing a battle between a Democratic former governor, Tim Kaine, and a Republican former senator, George Allen. Kaine has opened up a significant lead in a majority of recent polls. In Wisconsin, the Democrat, Tammy Baldwin, is projected to prevail over former Republican governor Tommy Thompson, but it is a tight race.

In Maine, where Republican senator Olympia Snowe has stepped down, a three-way contest has former governor Angus King, running as an independent, leading both his Democratic and Republican challengers, so this will be a Republican loss.

Two of the most-closely watched contests are in Massachusetts and Missouri. In the 'Bay State', high-profile challenger Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat, now has a small lead over Scott Brown, the Republican, who won Ted Kennedy's old seat in a special election two years ago. This is a seat Democrats, in the 'bluest' of 'blue' states, dearly want to regain.

In the 'Show Me' state, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill seemed certain to lose to Republican Todd Akin, until he stated in an interview that in cases of what he termed "legitimate rape," women rarely become pregnant. His lead in the polls has evaporated since then, and McCaskill, though still unpopular in the state, may prevail. Still, this one could go either way.

It does appear likely that, after Nov. 6, the Democrats will still control the United States Senate, regardless of the presidential winner.