What Does the Future Hold for Northern Ireland?

Henry Srebrnik, [Summerside, PEI] Journal Pioneer:

The official name of the country usually referred to as Great Britain is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It consists of England, Scotland, Wales, and the six predominantly Protestant counties in Ulster that remained part of the UK when the rest of Ireland, where Catholics were a majority, attained independence in 1922.

Ireland, for centuries ruled by Britain, had been incorporated as an integral part of the United Kingdom in 1801, when the Cross of St. Patrick was added to those of St. George and St. Andrew on the Union Jack, and Ireland was given representation in the Westminster Parliament in London.

Throughout the 19th century, though, Irish Catholics sought to govern themselves, either through “Home Rule,” a form of autonomy within the British state, or outright independence. Home rule opponents whipped up opposition with slogans like “Home rule is Rome rule.” Full sovereignty, on the other hand, became the rallying cry of Sinn Fein and its Irish Republican Army.

Following the First World War and the 1916 Easter Rising, the Irish War of Independence of 1919-1921 forced Britain into signing the Anglo-Irish Treaty. But Ireland was partitioned, and only 26 of Ireland’s 32 counties (including three from Ulster) formed the Irish Free State. (It became the Republic of Ireland in 1949.)

In Northern Ireland, the Protestant majority retained their ties with Britain, with their own assembly at Stormont. “We are a Protestant Parliament and a Protestant State,” announced its first prime minister. In this “Orange State,” Roman Catholics remained second-class citizens, discriminated against politically and economically.

Ever since the partition, a key aspiration of Irish nationalists has been to bring about a united Ireland and erase the border, while Unionists, who consider themselves “British” and prefer to call the province “Ulster,” wish to remain part of the UK.

Beginning in the late 1960s, Catholics in Northern Ireland began to rebel against their situation. Violence on both sides, during the “Troubles,” resulted in the deaths of more than 3,600 people, with another 107,000 injured.

Finally, in 1998, the Belfast -- or Good Friday -- Agreement was signed by the governments of Britain and Ireland, and ratified by referenda in both the Irish Republic and in Northern Ireland. It created a power-sharing system between Catholic (Republican) and Protestant (Unionist) parties in the Northern Irish Assembly.

It also stated that Northern Ireland would remain part of the United Kingdom until a majority of the people of Northern Ireland and of the Republic of Ireland wished otherwise. Should that happen, then the British and Irish governments are under “a binding obligation” to implement that choice.

The agreement thus acknowledges that Northern Ireland is not a permanent and inalienable part of the United Kingdom; its political future is contingent on the will of a majority of its population, which now numbers 1,789,000. (The Republic has 4,588,252 people.)

When the province was created, Protestants were the great majority of the population, but in the succeeding decades, the proportion of people in the Catholic community has increased. Today, they comprise 45 per cent of the population, and they now outnumber Protestants in half of Northern Ireland’s 26 districts. (In the south, about 84 per cent are Catholics.)

Protestant fears of being eventually outnumbered surfaced recently. In early December, the Belfast City Council decided to reduce the number of days the Union Jack would fly over the Council building. This was made possible by the fact that nationalists now hold 24 seats on the council, compared with 21 for the Unionists, reflecting the rapid growth of the Catholic population.

Weeks of Loyalist Protestant demonstrations have followed: firebombs and rocks were hurled at churches, police cars and lawmakers’ offices; and neighborhoods were sealed off by police or protesters’ barricades.

Ulster Protestants fear that Britain – England in particular -- is losing interest in them. The Protestants who settled Ulster from the 17th century on came mostly from Scotland, and Presbyterians form the largest Protestant denomination. Geographically, Northern Ireland is very close to Scotland, not England and Wales.

So in cities like London, Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds, many people might not be all that unhappy were the province left to its own devices.

Such attitudes would only intensify were Scotland itself ever to leave the UK -- a referendum on independence is scheduled there for next year.  A rump “United Kingdom of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland” would look absurd.

Should the UK dissolve, die-hard Unionists in Ulster might opt for a unilateral declaration of independence, but this would, needless to say, be resisted by the Catholics, who would of course prefer joining the Irish Republic. (This would also be the preferred option in Dublin.) 

All of this would most likely lead to yet another round of “Troubles,” even worse than the previous ones.