Can Libya's Post-Gadhafi Chaos End?

By Henry Srebrnik, [Summerside, PEI] Journal Pioneer

 

Following Moammar Gadhafi’s ouster in 2011, the United Nations, after four years of anarchy, endorsed an interim Government of National Accord (GNA) to bring peace and stability to Libya.

Though it has, on paper, been recognized the legitimate authority in the country, the GNA, under Prime Minister Fayez Mustafa al-Sarraj, barely functions and many see it as an authority imposed on them by outside powers, and heavily influenced by Turkey and Qatar.

The heavily-armed militias, who have carved the capital into fiefdoms, dominate the government through their control of key ministries and elements of the financial system, through which they plunder the state’s coffers. as well as by in the capital.

Through a coalition called the Tripoli Protection Force, they command the banks and other prized real estate, like airports, ports, and government buildings.

At least one of them, the Special Deterrence Brigade, is also composed primarily of hard-line Islamists.

The tensions in Tripoli emboldened General Khalifa Haftar, who established a separate government in eastern Libya that does not recognize the GNA.

During Gadhafi’s dictatorship, the general, a former supporter of the regime, became a dissident living in the United States.

Amid the post-Gadhafi anarchy, in May 2014 Haftar led a group of disaffected army units and local tribes in a military assault on Islamists and jihadists in the eastern city of Benghazi.

Haftar is now the leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and head of the House of Representatives in his eastern capital, Tobruk.

Further operations by Haftar’s LNA has allowed him to assume control over almost two-thirds of the country and all its oilfields. 

The power struggle between the GNA and the LNA has left the country’s vast desert south a lawless region. 

Haftar in early April advanced further west to take Tripoli, saying he wanted to “cleanse” the country of “remaining terrorist groups.”

But Haftar’s troops have faltered, as apart from the Tripoli defenders, he also united the powerful militias from the western cities of Misrata and Zintan against him.

Haftar has the backing of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. They see the Haftar-led campaign as an effort to prevent Islamists from turning Libya into a base to pursue an agenda of conquest across the Middle East and North Africa.

The UAE and Egypt have helped Haftar with airstrikes and provided his forces with military equipment such as helicopters, even building an air base. UAE drones have mounted airstrikes on Tripoli.

On the other hand, Qatar and Turkey provide aid to the radical groups opposing him.  

Doha offers support to Ali Salabi, a Muslim Brotherhood member, and to Abdel Hakim Belhaj, chairman of Libya’s al-Watan Party.

Most European countries, including Libya’s former colonial ruler, Italy, continue to support the GNA. However, France, which has oil assets in eastern Libya, has provided military assistance in the past to Haftar, and is more tentative.

The Russian position is somewhat opaque. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that a political settlement is the only solution to the Libyan crisis. 

But he also blamed the conflict on NATO for helping get rid of Gadhafi. The Russians consider NATO’s 2011 intervention to overthrow the dictator to have been an illegal act.

There is speculation that Moscow is quietly backing Haftar because it wants its navy to have access to the deep-water port of Tobruk, which is better positioned and equipped than Russia’s existing Mediterranean facility at Tartus in Syria, since it is on the doorstep of southern Europe.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has endorsed Haftar’s campaign. The White House said the president recognized Haftar’s “significant role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya’s oil resources.” 

Ghassan Salame, the UN envoy for Libya, warned the Security Council on May 22 that the oil-rich nation “is on the verge of descending into a civil war.” 

More than 75,000 people have been driven from their homes in the latest fighting and 510 have been killed, according to the World Health Organization.

Libya seems able to sustain either anarchy or tyranny but nothing in between. It’s easier to depose a tyrant than to impose democracy.

One thing is certain: chastened by the consequences of their 2011 overthrow of Gadhafi, NATO countries will not intervene militarily this time.