By Henry Srebrnik [Saint John, NB], Telegraph Journal
Will Armenia and Azerbaijan engage in full-scale war over Nagorno-Karabakh? It’s beginning to look that way, as this “frozen” conflict heats up.
The unresolved battle over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region of about 4,400 square kilometres with a population of roughly 150,000 ethnic Armenians, continues to be a problem for the South Caucasus region.
Should the conflict re-ignite, it would spread catastrophe over a wide region, impacting not just Armenia and Azerbaijan, but Georgia, Russia, Turkey, and even Iran.
After all, Armenians, an ancient Christian nation, and Azeris, a Muslim people, have had little love lost between them in the area they share in the southern Caucasus.
Each has also had a powerful ally over the centuries, based on their respective faiths, with Russian Orthodox tsarist Russia coming to the aid of the Armenians, while the Ottoman Turks supported the Azeris. They speak a Turkic language, though, like Iranians, they practice Shia Islam, whereas the majority of Turks are Sunnis.
The leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan often refer to themselves as “one nation and two states,” and Turkey’s 300-kilometre border with Armenia has been closed since 1993 as a gesture of support over Nagorno-Karabakh, causing severe economic problems for landlocked Armenia.
This too factors into the conflict, as there remains the memory among Armenians of the Ottoman Turkish genocide during World War I, in which at least one million Armenians were massacred.
In late September, a new round of fighting over the disputed mountainous region resumed. The fighting now appears to be spilling out of Nagorno-Karabakh, with Armenia and Azerbaijan trading accusations of direct fire on their borders.
Azerbaijan’s Defence Ministry said Armenian forces shelled the Dashkesan region in Azerbaijan, while Armenian officials said Azerbaijani forces opened fire in the Armenian town of Vardenis.
Azerbaijan is frustrated that after nearly three decades there has still been no progress towards settling the conflict, including the return of seven adjacent Azeri territories currently under Armenian control.
Turkey openly backs Azerbaijan and there are signs it is actively engaged in the fighting. It also appears a proxy force of Syrian fighters has been deployed from southern Turkey to Azerbaijan. Indeed, in a major escalation, Armenia claims Turkey shot down one of its fighter jets.
“Armenia should withdraw from the territories under its occupation instead of resorting to cheap propaganda tricks,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s aide Fahrettin Altun stated.
But Russia, which has a mutual defence pact with Armenia and a military base there, has been more circumspect, calling for a ceasefire. It helped negotiate a ceasefire in 2016 after the so-called “April War,” in which some 200 soldiers and civilians were killed, and the two sides came close to all-out war.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told Russian media the atmosphere was not right for talks while military operations were ongoing. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, also speaking to Russian outlets, ruled out any talks given Armenia’s current stance.
The Soviet Union created the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region within Azerbaijan in 1924, when over 94 per cent of the region's population was Armenian. As the Azerbaijani population grew, the Karabakh Armenians chafed under the discriminatory rule of what became the Soviet Socialist Republic of Azerbaijan.
The conflict dates in its modern form to 1988, when Armenian deputies to the National Council of Nagorno-Karabakh voted to unify that region with Armenia. Although Armenia did not formally respond, this act triggered an Azerbaijani massacre of more than 100 Armenians in the city of Sumgait, just north of Baku. A similar attack on Azerbaijanis occurred in the Armenian town of Spitak.
Large numbers of refugees left Armenia and Azerbaijan as pogroms began against the minority populations of the respective countries. Meanwhile, in a December 1991 referendum, Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh approved the creation of an independent state.
The dispute over the status of the territory has been costly: during the initial fighting, as the Soviet Union collapsed, around 30,000 people died and more than a million were displaced on both sides.
After a ceasefire agreement was signed in 1994, a situation of “no war, no peace” has prevailed punctuated by periodic border clashes. By this time the Armenian side had gained de facto control over a territory comprising not just Nagorno-Karabakh itself but a large swathe of land outside the region as well, amounting to just under 14 per cent of the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan.
The Nagorno-Karabakh polity, which calls itself Republic of Artsakh, is really a de facto Armenian entity, but it is not recognised as a sovereign polity by any other internationally recognized country, including even Armenia.
Only three other entities, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the Transnistria, themselves breakaway regions which seceded from Soviet successor countries, have granted it recognition. For every-day purposes it has become a province of Armenia. Indeed, Serzh Sargsyan, president of Armenia from 2008 to 2018, is himself from Nagorno-Karabakh.
The UN Security Council has said it confirmed its “full support” for the role of the co-chairs of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk Group, comprising France, Russia and the United States, who have mediated peace efforts. The council encouraged the parties to work closely with the co-chairs “for an urgent resumption of dialogue without preconditions.” But this is falling on deaf ears at the moment.
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