As COVID Crushes India, Things go from Bad to Worse

By Henry Srebrnik, [Moncton, NB] Times & Transcript

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has suffered some major reversals in the past month.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been overwhelming the country, and his Indian People’s Party (BJP) lost a hotly contested election in the important state of West Bengal.

India’s coronavirus numbers are setting world records for infections and deaths day after day. In early May it became the second country, after the United States, to cross the grim milestone of 20 million infections.

The country added the second 10 million cases in just over four months, after taking more than 10 months to reach the first 10 million. India has accounted for nearly half of all reported infections across the world in recent weeks. Some religious festivals became super-spreader events.

Almost 250,000 people have died, though the actual number could be far higher. There have been more than 4,000 deaths per day of late.

India’s healthcare spending, including both private and public, is around 3.6 per cent of GDP, far lower than developed countries.

The surge in infections of the highly infectious Indian variant of the coronavirus has coincided with a dramatic drop in vaccinations due to supply and delivery problems.

Many states, including Maharashtra, home to the commercial capital of Mumbai, have reported a scarcity of vaccines, shutting down some inoculation centres.

Hospitals have run out of beds and oxygen, and morgues and crematoriums are overflowing. Many Indians have died in ambulances and cars, unable to gain access to medical attention.

This second wave is ravaging wide swathes of rural India, which are starved of public health resources. Over 65 per cent of Indians live in rural districts without access to treatment.

Modi’s government is reluctant to impose a national lockdown for fear of the economic fallout. But many states have imposed curbs on their own.

The government’s principal scientific adviser, K. Vijay Raghavan, has said that even when the numbers subside, the country should be ready for a third wave of the pandemic.

Rahul Gandhi, a leader of the opposition Congress party, said that “a lockdown is now the only option because of a complete lack of strategy by the Indian government.”

As for the recent elections, in a blow to Modi, Mamata Banerjee is set to remain the chief minister of West Bengal for the third time. Her Trinamool Congress party (TMC) won a two-thirds majority, taking more than 200 seats in the 294-seat state assembly.

Normally, regional polls wouldn’t matter that much to the federal government. But Modi himself made it a prestige issue to defeat Banerjee, India’s only female chief minister.

Banerjee framed the challenge from Modi’s Hindu nationalist BJP as one between the insider Bengalis and the outsider, largely Hindi-speaking BJP, which runs the federal government. Bengalis, in Kolkata and elsewhere, have always had a fierce sense of loyalty to their language.

Banerjee had stormed to power in 2011 after dislodging a Communist-led government that ruled the state for 34 years. Celebrating the current win, she said tackling Covid-19 would be her first priority.

Still, the BJP did make substantial gains and became the main opposition party. Its tally in the state legislature went to nearly 80 seats, compared to just three seats won in the last state election in 2016.

Modi, his colleagues and other regional politicians campaigned in five state elections, including West Bengal, despite the wave of COVID-19, prompting criticism he was focusing on elections instead of making the pandemic his top priority. West Bengal is now reeling under a surge of infections.

In northeastern Assam state, the BJP managed to retain power. In Tamil Nadu, victory went to the Dravidian Progressive Federation (DMK), the main regional opposition party. In Kerala, a ruling left democratic front consisting of six major parties formed the government while the BJP led-alliance won no seats. In the union territory of Puducherry, the All India NR Congress-led alliance regained power.

Some critics blamed the country’s federal election commission for allowing rallies and voting in which large crowds flouted rules on social distancing and mask-wearing.

If the opposition can build up a serious alternative to challenge Modi in the next general election in 2024, this country’s political landscape could see a fundamental change.