The Israeli-Jordanian Relationship is Complex

 

By Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottown, PEI] Guardian

Few Jordanians shed a tear when Benjamin Netanyahu’s run as Israeli prime minister came to an end earlier this year. Jordan’s former information minister, Mohammad Momani, said “any Israeli premier other than Netanyahu would be better for Jordan.”

Over the last few years, policies by Netanyahu’s government confounded and strained the ties between the two countries. Now there have been signs of improved relations.

In one of his first gestures as Israel’s new prime minister, Naftali Bennett met with King Abdullah II in early July and agreed to double the supply of water it sends the Hashemite Kingdom from the Sea of Galilee.

Israel agreed to increase the amount of water it shares annually with Jordan to 50 million cubic metres, nearly double the 30 million cubic metres Israel usually provides.

Jordan, which is suffering from a severe drought, is one of the driest countries on earth and its water shortages are expected to worsen with climate change.

King Abdullah has maintained diplomatic and security ties with Israel throughout his 22-year tenure, but he remains sensitive to his country’s large Palestinian population and its politics.

The Jordanian defeat in the 1967 Arab-Israeli War led to the loss of the West Bank and east Jerusalem, including the Old City with its Muslim holy places. These had been incorporated into the kingdom in 1948 following the creation of the Jewish state.

Israel pledged to respect Jordan’s “special role” in overseeing Jerusalem’s Muslim and Christian holy sites. It needs Amman’s co-operation to ensure stability in that troubled city.

Nearly 60 per cent of Jordan’s population is of Palestinian descent, so Abdullah’s public relationship with Israel is mostly marked by his support of the Palestinian cause. The Jordanian government has attempted to deflect from many of his country’s woes by condemning the Jewish state.

At times, the kingdom has also temporarily withdrawn its ambassador in Tel Aviv for consultations. But the 1994 peace treaty between the two countries has endured. Jordan’s criticisms of and rhetoric on the Palestinian issue do not shake the fundamentals of its relationship with Israel.

Last year, Jordan began receiving its first natural gas supplies from Israel after a $10 billion deal was signed in 2016. Bennett and Abdullah also reached agreement on trade cooperation, mainly involving Jordanian exports to the Palestinian Authority. The cap on Jordanian exports to the West Bank will be raised from $160 million to $700 million. Intelligence cooperation between Israel and Jordan have also continued at a high level.

Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid called Jordan “an important neighbor and partner,” saying Israel “will broaden economic cooperation for the good of the two countries.”

The Jordanian monarch said he “came out of those meetings feeling very encouraged, and I think we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks, not only a better understanding between Israel and Jordan, but the voices coming out of both Israel and Palestine that we need to move forward and reset that relationship.”

Jordan’s demand for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital, has long been a core feature of its foreign policy. But although he is a relative newcomer, it is highly improbable that Bennett will end Israeli control over the West Bank and evacuate large settlements to appease Abdullah.

However, if Israel were to take a far-reaching step, such as annexing large parts of the West Bank, Jordan would likely annul its diplomatic ties with Israel.

Abdullah understands he needed a functioning relationship with Israel to keep approximately $1.5 billion in annual U.S. aid flowing, especially as Jordan experiences a record public debt of $45 billion.

The U.S. and the monarchy signed a new security pact in March.

Abdullah also met with U.S. President Joe Biden later in July. The economic crisis and even an attempted coup d’état by Abdullah’s half-brother last April, made this meeting more important than ever.

Biden voiced his support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Jordan’s engagement with the new Israeli government.

But should the king become less popular, Israel would need to gird itself for potentially dramatic changes in what has long been its most stable neighbour.