Is Libya Going to be Ruled by Another Gadhafi?

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Moncton, NB] Times & Transcript

Is the past going to be prologue, politically, in many failed states around the world? We’ve already seen the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Now, unbelievably, we might once again see a Gadhafi running Libya, a decade after a NATO-led campaign to eliminate dictator Moammar Gadhafi. And it may even occur via that panacea of western liberals, free elections.

In 2011, the international community supported rebel forces against Gadhafi. Hopes of democracy and stability have yet to be fulfilled.

During the Arab Spring in February 2011, Libyans took to the streets to protest against the country’s authoritarian ruler, who had been in power since 1969. The protests escalated into a military conflict, with part of the army joining opposition rebel groups and the other part remaining loyal to the regime.

On March 17, 2011, the United Nations passed a resolution allowing for measures to establish a no-fly zone to protect the civilian population. Two days later, the United States, Britain and France launched airstrikes. On March 31, NATO took sole command of international air operations over Libya.

NATO support proved vital to the rebel fighters. In October, they entered Gadhafi’s hometown of Sirte and a last heavy battle took place, ending with his capture and killing on October 20. A picture of the dictator’s bloodied face went around the world.

To many politicians in the west, his death represented an opportunity for a new beginning, but it was not to be. The country devolved into rival militias, representing tribes and ideological factions, with opposing camps claiming legitimacy.

The UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) was based in the capital, Tripoli, while a House of Representatives, which did not recognise the Tripoli administration, was located in Tobruk, loyal to the military strongman Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army.

External actors, in particular Turkey and Qatar on behalf of the GNA, and Egypt, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates supporting Haftar, became involved in the near-anarchy that had become the norm.

But last October a fragile ceasefire between the two Libyan sides went into effect. On March 10 of this year, a government of national unity headed by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah was formed. It replaced the two rival administrations that have been ruling Libya since 2014 and is part of a UN-backed plan to lead the conflict-ravaged country through elections by the end of the year.

They were scheduled for Dec. 24 but have been postponed. Is this setting the stage for a return of the Gadhafi family?

Ten years ago, a month after Moammar Gadhafi’s regime collapsed, a band of armed rebels ambushed a convoy near the Libyan desert town of Awbari that was fleeing south toward Niger. The gunmen captured Seif al-Islam el- Gadhafi, the second son of the notorious dictator and one of the rebels’ chief targets.

He had been widely seen in the West as the country’s best hope for incremental reform. He spoke the language of democracy and human rights. But when the revolution came, he enthusiastically joined the regime’s brutal crackdown.

The rebels flew him to Zintan, and people didn’t know if Seif was dead or alive. But it turns out that he is now free – and planning a comeback.

Libya has not been a functioning state since 2011, and so disillusioned are most Libyans with the post-Gadhafi chaos they have begun to warm up to him.

Though he remains wanted for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court, many Libyans now express “confidence” in him. He has stated that he wants to restore the “lost unity” of the country.

“There are people in Libya who would agree that, given the events of the past few years, the country was better off under Gadhafi,” according to Tim Eaton, a senior researcher at Chatham House, the London-based Royal Institute of International Affairs.

Sami Hamdi, managing director of International Interest, a global risk and intelligence company in London, speculates that “a number of international actors are willing to employ him as a potential card,” and he may well be the candidate that both Turkey and Russia decide to try to elevate in Libya. A sad state of affairs, indeed.