Northern Ireland Remains a British and Irish problem

By Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottown, PEI] Guardian

Political elites in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland feel that the Brexit agreement that saw the United Kingdom leave the European Union has exacerbated tensions between Protestant Unionists and Catholic Republicans in the province.

In the late twentieth century, Northern Ireland was marked by one of the most violent civil conflicts in the Western world. This civil war, called “The Troubles,” claimed the lives of over 3,300 people and lasted for three decades.

It finally came to an end with the signing of the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) in 1998. However, a followup to Brexit known as the Northern Ireland Protocol is threatening to undermine many of the GFA's main tenets.

Protestants in Northern Ireland tend to be “Unionist” or “Loyalist,” in the sense of maintaining and strengthening the union with Great Britain. Catholics, on the other hand, tend to be “Nationalist,” seeking to join the Republic of Ireland; thus they are also referred to as “Republican.”

The 2011 census found that 48 per cent of the population in Northern Ireland self-identified as Protestant, and 45 per cent as Catholic. Demographic trends expect that a Catholic majority will emerge soon.

The GFA had many clear mandates, such as a border-free island, a power-sharing executive with devolved powers, and dual British and Irish citizenship for everyone born in Northern Ireland, if requested.

Significantly, a key component of the GFA was the “consent principle,” which allows for the future status of Northern Ireland to be decided by a majority of its citizens, even if they choose to leave the U.K. and join the Irish Republic.

In the 2016 referendum, Brexit was rejected by the people of Northern Ireland, with 55.8 per cent voting to remain.

Since 2016, Catholics have become significantly warmer to the idea of reunification with the Republic of Ireland than they were prior to Brexit. Protestants remain adamant in rejecting it.

Opinion polling in Northern Ireland shows a consistent trend toward growing support for Irish unity. A poll in April 2021 by LucidTalk for the Sunday Times showed support for “yes” to Irish unity at 43 per cent compared to 49 per cent for preserving the status quo.

The post-Brexit deal known as the Northern Ireland Protocol, which went into effect this year, was designed to protect the GFA by ensuring a border would not be introduced on the island of Ireland, since the republic remains in the European Union. It allows Northern Ireland to continue to follow many of the EU rules on trade, and so retaining the “soft” border between it and the Republic.

This was done by creating a notional regulatory border in the Irish Sea. But it has led to additional checks on items moved between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

London feels this creates unnecessary economic difficulties and now wants to alter it. Also, Ulster Protestants are unwavering in demanding that the protocol not change the status of the province as an integral part of the U.K.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has insisted a solution can be found that “protects the peace process, but also guarantees the economic and territorial integrity of the whole United Kingdom.” The EU says it is prepared to be flexible but says the U.K. cannot walk away from its legal obligations.

Meanwhile, there has been renewed unrest in the province. The cities of Londonderry and the capital Belfast were subject to violence over Easter weekend in early April. Protesters burned cars and attacked police, throwing Molotov cocktails and stones.

The hijacking and burning of buses in Newtownards and Newtownabbey in recent weeks has been linked to Loyalist anger. This could get a lot worse if it isn't settled soon.

Northern Ireland's next election is scheduled for May 5, 2022. In the 90-member Stormont Assembly each party is free to designate itself as “nationalist,” “unionist,” or “other.”

It is currently evenly divided between 26 Democratic Unionists and an equal number of Sinn Féin Nationalists.

The third and fourth largest parties in the legislature are, respectively, nationalist and unionist.

The 2022 election may therefore prove to be a monumental moment — especially if a nationalist party were to emerge as the winner for the very first time.