Kazakhstan Walks a Careful Line Between Russia and China

  By Henry Srebrnik, [Moncton, NB] Times & Transcript

With a 7,000-kilometre shared border, Kazakhstan and Russia have historical ties in terms of shared ethnic, linguistic and socio-cultural origin. In addition to the presence of Russian minorities, language and media originating in Russia, there is abundant cooperation between the two countries through leadership elites, non-governmental organisations, and educational associations.

Since the foundation of the customs union among Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in 2011, Russia’s share of Kazakhstan’s imports has remained significant, reaching as high as 35 per cent. Many Russian corporations also own substantial shares of or have entered into partnerships with Kazakhstan companies in the energy, railroad infrastructure, agricultural and arms manufacturing sectors.

Despite the indispensability of their relations, the Kazakhstan government has tried hard to maintain its sovereign identity by rejecting a joint parliament as well as common citizenship and currency with Russia.

As for China, Kazakhstan’s diplomatic relations with Beijing began in 1992. Sharing 1,700 kilometres of border, the two countries have established close ties in economic and security cooperation.

Since signing a boundary treaty in 1994, China and Kazakhstan have participated in the seven-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which includes both China and Russia. It serves as a multilateral platform for Kazakhstan to avoid having to choose between the two.

Before 2013, most of China’s involvement in Kazakhstan was related to oil and gas extraction, pipeline construction, metal mining, transport infrastructure and a few cultural projects. That year, Kazakhstan signed on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the global infrastructure development strategy adopted by to invest in nearly 70 countries and international organizations.

In 2014, the then Kazakh president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, budgeted nine million dollars for a comprehensive infrastructure development plan, the “Nurly Zhol” (Bright Path) project, which he publicly tied to the BRI.

The Kazakh government began to strengthen cooperation with China for projects beyond resource extraction and transport infrastructure. Both governments agreed, in the “Chinese-Kazakh 2020 Long-term Plan for Economic Cooperation,” that they would optimize the bilateral trade structure by increasing the proportion of high-value-added and high-tech products.

While China’s interest in securing hydrocarbon supplies from Kazakhstan through inland routes rather than over maritime transport allows Kazakhstan to counteract its over-dependence on the Russian market, Kazakhstan has grown cautious in limiting China’s influence by forbidding the Chinese to lease land for agricultural investment.

The BRI has also met deep-seated Sinophobia and protests in Kazakhstan -- a fear for a possible Chinese economic and cultural domination in the country.

As a former part of the Soviet Union, political relations with Russia still predominate. There has been a substantial population of ethnic Russians in the country since the 19th century. Although their numbers have been reduced since the breakup of the USSR, they remain prominent in Kazakh society today. Indeed, Russians formed a plurality of the country’s population for several decades when it was ruled from Moscow.

Kazakhstan has endeavoured to reconstitute its pre-Soviet “Eurasian” identity using a narrative that recounts its pre-Russian history. In 2013, Russian President Vladimir Putin raised controversy when he claimed that “Kazakhs had never had statehood,” in what seemed to be an apparent response to growing nationalism among Kazakhs.

Putin’s remarks led to a severe response from President Nazarbayev, who then established the National Museum of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2014, and in 2015 announced that the country would celebrate the 550th anniversary of the Kazakh Khanate.

The country has steered clear over the current war in Ukraine. Current president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced it would not help Russia evade Western sanctions imposed on Moscow.

But it remains dependent on Russia for security. In January, unprecedented unrest erupted in Kazakhstan unlike anything seen in its three decades of independence. It started with protests fueled by socio-economic grievances, which soon expanded into politically charged demands, with chaos and violence breaking out.

President Tokayev was forced to call on Moscow for help. Russian troops arrived on Jan. 6. After quelling the disturbances, they left on January 19. More than 250 people were killed and almost 10,000 arrested.

These events, in the world’s top uranium exporter and a major oil and gas producer, have left investors anxious amid concerns that the social and political unrest could undermine Kazakhstan’s reputation as a reliable business destination.