Henry Srebrnik, [Halifax] Chronicle Herald
Until recently, U.S. Democrats had resigned themselves to a brutal result in the Nov. 8 midterm Senate elections — given soaring inflation, signs of an impending recession and dismal approval ratings for Joe Biden were threatening to wipe out their hold on the upper house of Congress.
Republicans would love to gain seats, but this now seems unlikely.
Can former president Donald Trump help, or hinder, Republican hopefuls in the 35 seats being contested this year? He has demonstrated his influence in important Senate primary races across the country: Blake Masters in Arizona, Herschel Walker in Georgia, J.D. Vance in Ohio, Adam Laxalt in Nevada and Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania were all endorsed by Trump and won their primaries. Another Trump endorsee, Don Bolduc, is ahead of his rivals in the upcoming New Hampshire Republican primary.
Speaking in his home state on Aug. 18, Kentucky’s Mitch Mcconnell, the Republican Senate minority leader, lowered expectations, citing “candidate quality” as a reason why the Democrats may eke out a majority. To some, “candidate quality” is synonymous with being excessively protrump, and refers to candidates who earned the former president’s support by having organized their campaigns around his contention that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.
In Arizona, a Trafalgar Group poll released at the end of August found incumbent Democrat Senator Mark Kelly leading Republican Blake Masters 47 per cent to 44 per cent — despite the fact that 61 per cent of Arizona Republicans believed the 2020 election “was stolen from President Trump,” according to a state survey of voters last year.
Masters also embraces the so-called “great replacement” conspiracy theory. “If you say as a candidate, ‘Obviously, the Democrats, they hope to just change the demographics of our country, they hope to import an entirely new electorate,’ they call you a bigot,” he stated on the Patriot Edition podcast in April.
In Georgia, Republican hopes of winning the Democratic-held seat in Georgia have been hurt by the candidacy of their nominee, Herschel Walker. The former National Football League star has been damaged by his call for a national abortion ban and the revelation that he had fathered previously undisclosed children.
Nonetheless, an Aug. 30 Emerson College poll showed Walker in a slight lead over Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock, 46 to 44 per cent.
In Ohio, conservative commentator and author J.D. Vance won the Republican nomination and faces Tim Ryan, the Democratic Party nominee, for the open Senate seat in the Buckeye State. An early favourite, Vance is said to have run a poor campaign and is struggling. Another Emerson College poll has Vance ahead of Ryan by just three per cent, at 45 to 42.
In Nevada, Trump supporter Adam Laxalt faces incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto, and the GOP is hoping to gain a Senate seat there. But an AARP poll in early September saw Cortez Masto ahead by 44 to 40 per cent.
In Pennsylvania’s contentious Senate race, Democratic nominee John Fetterman is on course to defeat his Republican rival, television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz. A poll released by Emerson College poll Aug. 29 has Fetterman leading 48 to 44 per cent.
Trump backed Oz over several other candidates who sought his support, including former hedge fund chief executive David Mccormick, and he said it would be “incredibly embarrassing” for Oz to lose to Fetterman.
In an election season in which Republican primary voters in toss-up states like Arizona and Pennsylvania have elevated Trump supporters, Denver business executive Joe O’dea stands out as an exception.
To win the GOP Senate nomination in Colorado, O’dea defeated Ron Hanks, a state representative who had participated in Trump’s “Stop the Steal” rally in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.
Mcconnell has said the GOP will be “all in” for O’dea, but he is still an underdog against incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet. A survey released by the Tarrance Group on Aug. 31 shows Bennet up over O’dea, but just by 48 per cent to 47 per cent — in a state Joe Biden won handily less than two years ago. Even if he were to prevail, Republicans still need to pick up another Senate seat or two to win the majority.
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, the Sept. 13 GOP primary will be picking a challenger to incumbent Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan.
Retired U.S. Army Brig.gen. Don Bolduc, endorsed by Trump, holds a double digit lead, 43 to 22 per cent, over his nearest rival, Chuck Morse, president of the state senate, according to an Aug. 30 poll from the University of New Hampshire.
If the midterms bring disappointment to Republicans, the debate on the right will be over the extent to which Trump was to blame.
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