By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, N.B.] Telegraph-Journal
Since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Turkey has become a major diplomatic player. The country’s geographic position is strategically important, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has leveraged his role as the only NATO member who is an interlocuter between the two sides to gain influence and status. Ankara enjoys good relations with both Moscow and Kyiv, a rarity nowadays.
Turkey is striving, in Erdogan’s words, to “not give up” the country’s ties with either Russia or Ukraine. This isn’t surprising, given the balancing act that Erdogan has long pursued between his NATO allies and their top European adversary, Russia. For Ankara, this provides an opening for its efforts to lead an independent foreign policy, by positioning itself between the West and Russia.
The Turkish public seems to support this policy. Polling over the past few months show that some 80 per cent want their country to remain neutral in the Ukraine conflict.
In fact, when asked in an April survey by prominent Turkish pollster Metropoll whom they held responsible for the war, only 33.7 per cent blamed Moscow. Nearly half of respondents, on the other hand, pointed to the United States and NATO.
Relations between Turkey and Russia have improved despite disagreements between the two countries in several regions: Syria, Libya, the Caucasus, and the Crimean Peninsula, where there is a Tatar minority with whom Turkish public opinion feels a special bond.
Turkey is the most moderate NATO member vis-à-vis Moscow. It did not impose sanctions on Russia and did not close its airspace to Russian aircraft. It has kept its doors open to Russian travelers and even encouraged sanctioned Russian oligarchs to plow their wealth into Turkey’s economy.
Russia is a significant energy supplier for Turkey: approximately a third of natural gas imports to Turkey come from Russia, and Russia is also an important source of oil and fuel. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are important providers of wheat for Turkey as well as of sunflower oil.
After all, Turkey needs Russian cash, gas and business, while Moscow needs friends to try to evade Western sanctions. Putin also benefits from a close connection to a member of NATO, which is trying to isolate him and help Ukraine defeat his invading army.
Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met alongside Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran July 19 to discuss a proposal to allow for grain to be exported from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. When Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement three days later, by creating a demilitarized corridor through the Black Sea, Erdogan played the role of benevolent statesman and praised Russia’s “very, very positive approach.” Seated next to United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres in Istanbul, he declared that the deal would benefit “the whole of humanity.” Shipments to African nations were deemed especially important.
In an apparent move to solidify Moscow’s hold over European energy markets, Putin on Oct. 13 offered to export more gas via Turkey and turn the country into a regional supply hub for Russian gas exports to European countries.
He met with Erdogan at a summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, days after Moscow launched the biggest aerial barrage against Ukraine since its invasion. Erdogan ordered his government to quickly present their implementation plans, saying that the hub “will be an international distribution center.”
After the Nord Stream Baltic gas pipelines from Russia to Germany were damaged by explosions in September, Moscow suggested Turkey could be the best route for redirecting gas supplies to the European Union. The TurkStream Natural Gas Pipeline, inaugurated in January 2020. runs through the Black Sea and Turkey to southeastern Europe, and is currently the only pipeline that still supplies significant quantities of Russian gas to Europe.
However, the Kremlin said TurkStream by itself cannot be a replacement for the Nord Stream pipelines through the Baltic Sea. In any case, energy experts consider it unlikely that the EU would approve new Russian gas conduits to Europe.
Ankara claims that not taking measures against Moscow is necessary to allow it to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, and that its policy allows it room for maneuver without provoking any side. Apparently, Erdogan or his top aides speak to Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine several times a week.
On Sept. 21, Turkey helped negotiate a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, the largest since the war began. It involved almost 300 people, including the Ukrainian commanders who had led the defence of Mariupol and its Azovstal steelworks.
At the same time, though, Turkish drones have garnered international attention for their success in Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Ukraine was the first country to purchase them and owns between 20 and 50 made by the Turkish company Baykar.
In fighting against the Russian forces, the Ukrainian army has used these drones with great success. Zelensky has honored Haluk Bayraktar, the CEO of Baykar, the manufacturer of the Bayraktar drones, as a sign of gratitude for its support.
Putin has called Erdogan “a strong, firm leader who is guided by the interests of Turkey, the Turkish people, and the Turkish economy.” On June 18 next year, voters will decide whether to keep Erdogan in office. I wouldn’t give his opponents much chance of unseating him.
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