By Henry Srebrnik, [Sydney, N.S.] Cape Breton Post
The possible normalization of Israeli-Saudi Arabian relations is in the news, following emerging signs that the United States is ready to promote the process.
Washington thinks Saudi Arabia has made a strategic decision to promote contacts with Israel, though with terms and circumstances that suit it. On the Israeli side, its government hopes to sign a treaty with Saudi Arabia as a continuation of the Abraham Accords, the normalization agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco that were signed in 2020.
Israel has a clear interest in strengthening and publicizing its ties with Saudi Arabia, which has the status of the “custodian of the holy sites of Islam.” An agreement with the kingdom, it hopes, would give other countries in the Muslim and Arab world greater legitimacy to form ties with Jerusalem.
Saudi Arabia has an interest in improving its relations with Israel and the dividends it can obtain on this account, particularly from the United States. For Riyadh, though, caution on normalization with Israel is essential, because of its status in the Arab and Muslim world, anti-Israel sentiment among the Saudi public, and the country’s religious and conservative character.
While Israel and Saudi Arabia do not enjoy formal diplomatic ties, informal and clandestine cooperation has been mutually beneficial for some time. Both fear Iran, so since 2021 reports have suggested that Israel and Saudi have discussed cooperating on regional issues.
While Riyadh was not an active partner in the Abraham Accords, they could not have happened without Saudi consent. Following the agreement, the kingdom allowed airlines, including Israeli carriers, to overfly its territory on flights to and from the UAE and Bahrain. An additional step towards normalization was Riyadh’s 2022 easing flyover restrictions for Israeli commercial aircraft travelling to China and India. All of this was personally authorised by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the country’s effective ruler.
American involvement, by providing incentives, is critical because the Saudis are making possible normalization with Israel conditional on receiving some reward from the United States. And Washington increasingly considers Israeli-Saudi normalization imperative.
In May, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan headed to Riyadh for talks. Secretary of State Antony Blinken paid his own visit in early June, at which the advancing of an Israel-Saudi deal was discussed. Former U.S. ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro was then appointed to a special envoy position, tasked with expanding the 2020 Abraham agreements, with Saudi Arabia at the forefront of the mission.
To broker a new diplomatic pact between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the White House will need to persuade the two countries to find common ground on thorny issues like nuclear enrichment, weapons sales and the territorial rights of Palestinians.
“Israel has a lot of potential and normalization can do wonders, not just for Israelis and Palestinians, but there’s potential for trade and cultural exchanges and exchanges with Israel on multiple fronts,” Fahad Nazer, a spokesman for the Saudi Embassy in Washington said recently. “But for that to happen, for the kingdom to take that step, we need that core dispute to be resolved.”
American officials have said that Saudi Arabia is also demanding a new security relationship with the United States as part of any deal to normalize relations with Israel. Riyadh seeks the end of the freeze on American weapons sales, including F-35 combat aircraft, and acquiescence to its development of a civilian nuclear programme.
The kingdom will also want any deal with Israel to not “merely” be an extension of the Abraham Accords but something unique, reflecting its size and importance.
Israel would also have to make significant, but as yet undefined, concessions to the Palestinians, and it is not clear how much of a gesture the Saudis would see as satisfactory.
A political breakthrough between Israel and Saudi Arabia is possible but will require deep U.S. involvement. It remains to be seen whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will consider and be able to convince others that the prize of Saudi normalization is worth the security and political costs demanded by the Americans and the Saudis.
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