By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, N.B.] Telegraph-Journal
When Hamas attacked Israel last Oct. 7, China at first assumed the latest fighting was no different from past conflicts between Israel and the Palestinians. Therefore, Beijing would display its support for the Palestinians, while presenting itself as a peace-seeking alternative to American hegemony, which, China maintains, foments strife and quarrels in the Middle East.
In fact China failed to understand the scope and nature of the Hamas massacre and its significance – and not just for Israel. The war upended the view China has vigorously promoted in recent years, one whereby the United States has been withdrawing from the Middle East and China has increased its presence there.
The Gulf states had responded and moved closer to China, particularly with economic agreements and military cooperations. A new peak of Chinese involvement was recorded in March 2023, when a treaty, apparently brokered by Beijing, was signed between Saudi Arabia and Iran -- a treaty that gave China the sense that it could lead a wave of “reconciliation” in the region.
In the current Gaza conflict, China also hopes to be a mediator. As the war intensified, China joined the declaration by others calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, and China’s Special Envoy Zhai Jun was sent for a round of visits in the Middle East, to burnish his country’s image.
His first stop was the Oct. 21 “Cairo Summit for Peace” in Egypt, attended mainly by representatives of Arab countries, together with a minority of delegates from Europe and elsewhere. Zhai Jun repeated China’s position that the Palestinian issue must not be sidelined and that it was important to reach a “comprehensive, just and long-lasting” solution based on the idea of two states -- Israel and an independent Palestinian state.
He added that “China will continue to work with all relevant parties of the international community to make unremitting efforts to end the war in Gaza.” From Cairo, Zhai next traveled to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, whose officials maintained that their countries attach great importance to the role and influence of China and were ready to strengthen their communication with Beijing and make efforts to solve the Palestinian issue.
Beijing has no regular contact with Hamas, but it does maintain links with the leadership of the Palestinian Authority. Following talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, in Beijing last June, they announced the establishment of a strategic partnership between the two.
The final communique stated that “China supports the establishment of a sovereign state of Palestine on the basis of the 1967 border demarcation and with East Jerusalem as its capital.” The resumption of peace talks between Palestinians and Israel, it stated, should be based on the principle of’ “land for peace”’ the relevant UN resolutions and the two-state solution.
Since establishing formal diplomatic ties with Israel in 1992, China has viewed the country primarily as a trading partner. They have traded goods worth about $22 billion so far this year. Between 2013 and 2022, China accounted for six per cent of all foreign investments in Israel, and Israel has no desire to change that figure.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was due to travel to China in October and the conclusion of a free trade agreement between the two sides was high on the agenda. But the trip was postponed due to the Gaza war. Trade, innovation, Israel’s outsized geopolitical role, and its close ties to the U.S. all remain among China’s interests in Israel.
Meanwhile, China’s tightening ties with Iran have been accompanied by reports of Israeli companies facing difficulties importing high tech components from China and the suspension of services to Israel by the Chinese state-owned shipping giant China Ocean Shipping Company.
We now also have Iranian-supported Houthi forces in Yemen interrupting the flow of ships in the Red Sea. This threatens Chinese ships and hurts Chinese commercial interests. Diverting the navigation routes of many shipping companies from the Red Sea to routes around the Cape of Good Hope harms China, the world’s largest exporter and second largest importer.
The Houthi attacks have caused the cost to ship a standard 40-foot container from China to northern Europe to jump from $1,500 to $4,000, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany.
Furthermore, ports and other infrastructure in the Red Sea region – and China has invested in many of them – have been damaged. Yet Beijing at first remained silent about this and refused to join the international effort to guarantee freedom of navigation.
Observers say China’s cautious response is consistent with its general approach to Middle East crises and will likely remain so unless the attacks severely dent its trade and commercial interests.
But as the crisis deepens, China might be nearing the limit of what it is willing to sacrifice to maintain positive relations with Iran. Beijing has upped the intensity of its stance against the Houthis.
On Jan. 26 China finally called on the Houthis to stop their attacks and reportedly asked Tehran to help rein in the group or risk harming business relations with Beijing. After all, no country is more dependent on the free flow of products from one sea to another than China.
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