Will Belgium Survive?

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

Belgium doesn’t really have a “national” election. The country is split between Dutch-speaking Flanders and French-speaking Wallonia.

Most Flemish voters can only vote for Flemish parties, and French speakers can vote for French-speaking parties. In the capital, Brussels, Belgians can pick and choose.

This has created a fragmented political landscape. Traditional parties don’t operate nationwide. They split into Flemish and French-speaking parties decades ago, catering to their own regions. The far-left Workers’ Party, which operates as a single, national party, is the exception to the rule.

To be able to govern and choose a prime minister, Flemish and French-speaking parties have to form a coalition at the federal level. Traditionally, Flanders has leaned right while Wallonia has been a left-leaning bastion. That has made forming a federal government a difficult feat.

In Flanders, in this June 9 election, migration was a top concern, with people calling it the “biggest problem.” That explains the position of Vlaams Belang, an anti-immigration party calling to close the borders. In Brussels and Wallonia, purchasing power was the main concern. As well in Brussels, the recent wave of drug-related violence and organized crime had an impact. A quarter of Brussels residents listed security as one of their priorities.

The Flemish right-wing New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) and Francophone liberal Reformist Movement (MR) were the two victors of the election, which saw Belgian voters move to the right. Both campaigned on platforms advocating economic reforms to cut back the country’s spiraling government deficit.

The Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats Party (Open VLD) suffered a heavy defeat, with less than seven per cent, resulting in the resignation of its leader, Alexander De Croo, as prime minister. He had led a seven-party coalition government which was formed after almost 18 months of talks following the previous elections five years ago.

A new government is likely to coalesce around the rightwing N-VA, which beat its arch-rival, the far-right Vlaams Belang, into second place in the key Dutch-speaking Flanders region.

The far-right Vlaams Belang party, which had led the polls in Flanders in recent months, grabbed 22.8 per cent of Flemish votes, but failed to overtake its Flemish conservative rival N-VA) which became Belgium’s biggest party with around 24.5 per cent of Flemish votes. 

The French-speaking liberal MR came first in Brussels and French-speaking Wallonia, with about 30 per cent of the Francophone vote. The centrist Les Engagés finished with 21 per cent of Walloon votes. The results were a shock to the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), which has led the region for decades, but came in at 22.6 per cent. 

“The big difference between the PS and the MR is that MR preaches work whereas PS preaches laziness,” said MR party member Gjergj Dodaj. 

The separatist Vlaams Belang wants to split the country, starting with a “declaration of sovereignty” backed by a Flemish majority. N-VA has dismissed separatism in the short term and wants to reform the Belgian state into a “confederal” one instead, moving all power to the regional level but keeping a national brand for things like national defence. “Flanders has more than ever chosen for more autonomy,” N-VA leader Bart De Wever said during his victory speech

But any kind of separation would have to be negotiated with other parties, including Francophone ones. Some French-speaking parties have opened to the idea of reforming the state but adamantly dismiss splitting the country entirely.

Vlaams Belang has so far been blocked from entering governments as mainstream parties vowed to exclude it from power under a “cordon sanitaire” doctrine referring to a protective barrier put in place to stop them.

The initiative to launch coalition talks to form a national government would seem to lie with the centre-right parties. Ahead of the election, De Wever ruled out governing with Vlaams Belang; he will now have to find allies from the centre and centre-left to form a majority in the country’s federal parliament.

“We’re completely moving away from the traditional Belgian narrative of the last 50 years, according to which Flanders is on the right and Wallonia is on the left,” Vincent Laborderie, a professor at UCLouvain University, told the AFP news agency.

The results have set the country on course for months of challenging coalition talks.