Professor Henry Srebrnik

Professor Henry Srebrnik

Saturday, July 13, 2024

The Bloom is Off the Rose for the ANC

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Fredericton, NB] Daily Gleaner

South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa unveiled a new coalition government July 1, after his ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost its parliamentary majority in the May 29 elections.

It includes eleven different parties in a power-sharing agreement. Ramaphosa put the best light on it, saying this government of national unity “is unprecedented in the history of our democracy.”

The ANC holds 20 out of 32 cabinet posts, while the pro-market Democratic Alliance (DA), until now the main opposition party, holds six. The other portfolios are shared amongst seven smaller parties. These appointments followed weeks of tense negotiations.

The ANC, led by Nelson Mandela came to power in 1994, ending decades of white-minority rule in South Africa. In May’s elections the party got 40 per cent of the vote, while the DA, it’s main new coalition partner, secured 21 per cent. This is the first time the ANC has been forced to share power.

The ANC electoral decline has been irreversible. They fell from 69 per cent of the vote in 2004 to 66 in 2009, then to 62 in 2014, and down to 57.50 per cent in 2019. The shrinking of ANC support in the elections reflected public frustration over its poor record on delivering basic services and tackling unemployment, poverty and corruption.

Some of its activists have criticized it for sharing power with the DA, which some see as representing white interests. The DA said it was “proud to rise to the challenge and take our place, for the first time, at the seat of national government.” The coalition government was welcomed by the business community who said it would ensure economic stability.

In the new cabinet, the ANC will keep key ministries such as defence, finance, and foreign affairs. The DA’s portfolios include home affairs, which controls immigration as well as public works. These have been at the centre of a series of corruption scandals. Party leader John Steenhuisen will lead the agriculture ministry.

“The incoming government will prioritise rapid, inclusive and sustainable economic growth and creation of a more just society,” declared Ramaphosa. He pledged “good governance, zero tolerance for corruption and pragmatic policymaking.”

How did things go so wrong for a party that was celebrated throughout the world 30 years ago? Rampant corruption under Ramaphosa’s predecessor, Jacob Zuma, has hollowed out the state. Nearly half of the population under the age of 34 is considered unemployed, while basic public services are either poor or non-existent, and this has fueled social instability, reinforcing xenophobic sentiments and resulting in dozens of deaths over the years.

Rolling power cuts, known as loadshedding, have become the new normal. Africa’s most industrialized nation had only 35 days in 2023 where the state-run power utility Eskom didn't have to cut power to some part of the country. The unpredictable power supply has a dramatic impact on everything from business to healthcare and schooling.

The gap between rich and poor keeps growing, even though the ANC made the issue a central concern when it came to power in 1994. Power and wealth still reside in a tiny minority, while poverty is extreme, making South Africa arguably the most unequal society in the world. The richest 20 per cent of the population hold nearly 70 per cent of the income. By contrast, the poorest 40 per cent of South Africans hold just seven per cent.

This has made South Africa one of the world’s most dangerous states. “Everywhere in the country, crime is the thing that people talk about, whether you’re black or white,” according to William Gumede, a political analyst who helped some of the opposition parties form a pre-election coalition pact. “It deprives South Africans from living a full life. It has sucked the soul out of the country.”

The progress made under the leadership of Mandela and his successor, Thabo Mbeki, stalled when Zuma took power in 2009. He was forced to quit as president in 2018 over corruption scandals. Billions was looted from the state, leaving almost every part of it bankrupt, from the national airline to the agency that ran the railways.

This helped the DA, which has gained a reputation for its relatively impressive management of Cape Town and Western Cape province. The DA also partnered with the Zulu nationalist Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) led by Velenkosini Hlabisa, which, at four percent, is also now part of the governing coalition. Hlabisa assured IFP supporters the party would not “lose its identity” as they have worked in a coalition government before.

In this election, many younger people voted for the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), headed by firebrand Julius Malema, which ended the day with nine per cent. He was the ANC’s youth league leader when he was expelled in 2012 for advocating the nationalisation of mines and expropriation of land without compensation.

As for Zuma, he led a new party, Spear of the Nation (MK), which did surprisingly well in the elections, with 15 per cent of the vote, becoming the country’s third-largest party and taking a big chunk of votes from the ANC. Like the EFF, it will be part of the opposition in parliament.

But without revolutionary measures such as income and wealth redistribution, the deep social crisis will persist and get worse.

 

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