By Henry Srebrnik, [Fredericton, NB] Daily Gleaner
The South Caucasus has received increased international attention of late with heated discussions on Georgia’s possible European Union membership, which has roiled that country’s politics, with many supporting Russia against it.
Less noticed has been the effect of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel when it comes to Armenia and Azerbaijan, longtime enemies who most recently fought a war that saw Armenia lose its hold over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave within Azerbaijan.
The Gaza war has put little pressure on Georgia, but since it pits Iran and Israel against each other, it has put both Yerevan and Baku in a difficult spot. It has compelled both Armenia and Azerbaijan to consider calculated neutrality as the most prudent course of action.
On Oct. 7, the Georgian Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning the “horrific terrorist attack on the State of Israel” and expressing “solidarity with the Israeli government and people.” The country’s embattled president, Salome Zourabichvili, took to X (formerly Twitter) to express Georgia’s “full solidarity with Israel in these difficult moments.”
Georgia’s pro-Israeli position was further highlighted five days later when the Israeli ambassador to Georgia, Hadas Meitzad, was invited to address the Georgian Parliament’s Foreign Relations Committee. Meitzad accused Iran of ultimately being behind the terrorist attack, as Hamas would not be able to conduct such a large-scale attack without significant financial and logistical support.
In turn Mahmoud Adib, the Iranian ambassador to Georgia, on Oct. 14 denounced these allegations as “unfounded” and called on Tbilisi, “a long-standing opponent of occupation, to stand with the Palestinian people in their quest for freedom and justice.”
This hasn’t changed many minds. Support for Israel allows the Georgian government to gain favour with its Western partners, especially the United States. It also might improve the country’s chances to join the EU.
In Armenia, though, the Israel-Palestine conflict is largely seen in the context of Israel’s growing economic and military partnership with Azerbaijan. Yerevan has criticized Israel on this matter, as Israel has been Azerbaijan’s main arms supplier. That support contributed to Baku’s efforts in wresting back Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia last September.
In an earlier battle between the two countries in the autumn of 2020, which also resulted in an Azerbaijani victory, its success was due in part to the use of advanced weaponry purchased from Israel, as well as its political support.
Last Oct. 3, the World Jewish Centre in Yerevan was vandalized in an act that some believe was directly related to Israel’s support for Azerbaijan. The Armenian Foreign Ministry condemned the attack.”
On June 21 Armenia announced that it was officially recognizing Palestine as a state. Still, Yerevan’s reaction to the Israel-Hamas war has been quite measured, with the Foreign Ministry expressing shock at “the violence between the Palestinians and Israel and targeting of the civilian population” and declaring support for “international calls to stop the violence.”
Anti-Israeli sentiments in Armenia, nevertheless, persist and prevents Yerevan from declaring support for Israel. As well, Iran has emerged as an ardent supporter of Armenia, declaring any breach of Armenia’s territorial integrity “unacceptable.”
Why would Tehran support Armenia against Azerbaijan, a fellow Muslim country? Iran is wary of Azerbaijani irredentism, since much of northwestern Iran, next to Azerbaijan, is populated by ethnic Azeris, not Persians.
Iranian Azerbaijan includes three northwestern Iranian provinces and there have been previous attempts at secession. Baku-based groups such as the Southern Azerbaijan National Awakening Movement have sought to unify Iran’s Azeri community with Azerbaijan.
The Israel-Hamas conflict has put Azerbaijan, as a Shia-majority Muslim country, in an exceedingly difficult position. Historically, the country has enjoyed close relations with both Israel and the Islamic world, including the Palestinians.
Just six months before the attack, Azerbaijan had opened its embassy in Tel Aviv. In addition, it also opened a representative office in Ramallah, the seat of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. Azerbaijan has also avoided declaring Hamas a terrorist organization.
The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry took a neutral position from the first day of the war, “condemning violence against civilians in the Israeli-Palestine conflict zone” and calling for “an urgent de-escalation of the situation.” On Oct. 18, in his address to the expanded meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov stated that Baku “supports the Palestinian people in their struggle for statehood” and called for the solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict “on the basis of the two-state principle.”
At the Organization of Turkic States summit in Kazakhstan on Nov. 3, the Azerbaijani president avoided condemning either side and merely expressed general “concern over the ongoing conflict.”
This position also was careful not to alienate Azerbaijan’s main ally, Turkey, which fully supports the Palestinians. On June 2, members of the group “A Thousand Youth for Palestine” attacked the offices of the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) in Istanbul. Azerbaijan supplies approximately 40 per cent of Israel’s oil. They demanded that SOCAR cease selling oil to Israel via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhun pipeline.
Azerbaijan has become more vocal on the war in Gaza of late. During a joint press conference with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo on June 8, President Ilham Aliyev maintained that an independent Palestinian state should be established and East Jerusalem should be its capital.
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