By Henry Srebrnik, Fredericton Daily Gleaner
No one should belittle or make light of U.S. President Donald’s Trump’s role in bringing about a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. It’s the best news we’ve had since October 7, 2023. Trump accomplished something no one else has done. He deserves full credit.
Only an American president who was prepared to lay down terms for the war’s end that mandated both the elimination of Hamas and the immediate freedom of all the captives could have done it.
Trump made it clear there are now no more sacred cows in the Middle East, no more safe spaces, and no more off-limits targets. Israel and the U.S., together, humbled Iran and Yemen’s Houthis. Israel pulverized Gaza, weakened Hezbollah, and even attacked Qatar.
A nearly identical version of what became the current cease-fire deal had been on the table for months. But, as foreign affairs insiders in Washington noted, it only came together in early October because all sides faced intense pressure in the wake of the Sept. 9 Israeli strike on Hamas senior leadership in Doha. The Qataris were shocked and Trump was furious. After all, Qatar hosts a major U.S. military installation and has served as a go-between in negotiations.
The Gulf states led a group of Arab and Muslim countries to press Trump to develop what coalesced into Trump’s 20-point plan. Hamas’s few remaining regional backers -- Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt -- put pressure on Hamas, threatening to cut diplomatic cover and deport Hamas leadership. Netanyahu was then browbeaten by Trump into accepting the plan (and also forced to apologize to Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim Ibn Hamad Al Thani for the airstrike). It was somewhat ironic that the airstrike made the peace plan possible.
But juxtaposed to this stick were numerous incentives that can, Trump believes, lead to prosperity and security in the region, even including Gaza. He used the carrot of the Abraham Accords, along with expanding commercial access into U.S. markets, to pressure or persuade the Gulf and moderate Arab states to ensure funding for Gaza reconstruction and the continued political weakening of Hamas. Qatar will be pressured to break with the Hamas leaders living safely in Doha.
But no one need wax euphoric or open a bottle of champagne just yet. Hamas remains in place, very much weakened, but with a still strong ideological and religious hold on much of Gaza’s Palestinian population. And they remain committed to the destruction of Israel, as a matter of faith, by, in their own words, “supporting the holy struggle, jihad.”
This remains the case even if the ceasefire holds or at least reduces the violence. They have ruled Gaza for almost the entire period since Israel withdrew in 2005, viciously eliminating all opponents. There’s a long way to go to ending the threat posed by Hamas and its international enablers.
President Trump’s peace plan specifies that “Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form. All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt.” Instead, Gaza is to be “governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” with security provided by an international force.
Is this feasible? True, Hamas has been defeated militarily – but it won the war of public opinion in western countries. Much of their populations turned against Israel, which came out of the last two years more isolated than ever before in its history.
Given all this, Hamas will not accept irrelevance in Gaza, regardless of the number of troops and technocrats that will fill the economic and political void. If the past is a precedent, Hamas will fight tooth and nail to preserve its political and military standing in Gaza and its commitment to violently oppose prospects for peace. They want to be a fact on the ground and part of whatever technocratic Palestinian body next administers Gaza.
It seems that they’re already taking steps to preserve their power in areas vacated by Israeli forces. Accused by Hamas of being traitors and collaborating with Israel, their opponents are being shot in the head in mass executions in daylight.
Hamas will step back from violence but will continue functioning as a political actor, recruiting new leaders and fighters, rearm its cadres with weapons smuggled by Iran or manufactured at home, and refill its empty coffers by co-opting humanitarian aid or resources intended for reconstruction. Put simply, Hamas may play along with the first phase of the cease-fire. But the group is not done fighting.
According to the head of Egypt’s State Information Service, Diaa Rashwan, what Hamas agreed to do is freeze its weapons, not to disarm. It remains unclear whether American, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators accepted this variation from the Trump plan. And restarting the war against Hamas once Israelis have had a taste of peace and Trump is basking in the glow of his diplomatic success will be a lot harder than it was to continue it prior to the hostage deal.
How, then, will the Gulf states go about investing in the reconstruction of Gaza? They would risk losing their entire investment the next time Israel has to “mow the grass” – that is, mount fresh pre-emptive attacks. Even before that, Hamas could take over the assets of Gulf investors or at minimum demand exorbitant amounts of “protection” money.
In Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt, on Oct. 13, the leaders of Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and the United States issued a communiqué expressing their “determination to dismantle extremism and radicalization in all its forms.” Let’s hope they mean it.
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