By Henry Srebrnik, Saint John Telegraph-Journal
If Iran emerges from the current war with Israel and the United States weakened, whether politically, economically, or militarily, Turkey’s relative influence in the broader region will increase.
Ankara has already consolidated significant influence in Syria and Azerbaijan, and it continues to pursue strategic projects across the South Caucasus. It has also been very active in the debates over the Hamas-Israel war in Gaza.
The recent NATO summit in Ankara marked an important moment for Turkey’s role within the alliance. It came after years of strained relations between Ankara and several of its NATO partners, especially the United States, following a period marked by disagreements over regional security, defence procurement and foreign policy.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hopes to soon reach an agreement with Washington on lifting U.S. sanctions that were imposed on Turkey that followed its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defence systems. As well, Ankara desires to acquire advanced F-35 fighter jets.
In 2020, Washington imposed sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), following Turkey’s acquisition of the S-400s. It also excluded Ankara from the F-35 stealth fighter jet program. The U.S. Congress passed a law requiring Turkey to dispose of the S-400s before it could rejoin the F-35 program.
The Turkish daily Hurriyet reported July 10 that Turkey could soon announce it would sell the S-400s to a Gulf country to persuade Washington to supply it with F-35s. Before President Donald Trump’s arrival in Ankara, Fidan traveled to Moscow, where he met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and President Vladimir Putin to gain their approval.
Turkey is now seeking Russia’s consent to transfer the S-400 air defence system, an effort aimed at clearing the way for the purchase of the airplanes. Currently, Ankara does not use the system despite having it in its inventory.
Meanwhile, Turkey has reportedly paused its planned purchase of 40 American F-16s and the modernization of 79 existing aircraft while reassessing its long-term fighter strategy. The costly program is now considered a lower priority compared with Turkey’s domestically developed KAAN fighter, and the F-35 acquisitions, according to Hurriyet.
Over the past decade, the United States and Turkey have differed sharply on some major issues, including the U.S. partnership with Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces against the Islamic State organization in Syria. Turkey purchased the S-400 system from Moscow during a period of estrangement from its NATO partners, which began during Barack Obama’s presidency and deepened after a failed coup attempt against Erdogan in 2016. That frustration became part of Ankara’s justification for turning to Russia. But the Syrian problem has lessened with the creation of the new, generally pro-Turkish, Sunni Arab government in Damascus following the 2024 fall of Bashar al-Asad.
Some Mediterranean states are not happy with the possibility of Turkey’s potential acquisition of new military hardware. Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias on July 9 said Athens “would not welcome” Turkey receiving either F-35 fighter jets or engines for its next-generation Turkish KAAN combat aircraft. Advanced American weapons should never be used against fellow NATO allies.
Greece cannot dictate the defence procurement decisions of third countries, but it has both the right and the obligation to present its security concerns to Washington, particularly given Turkey’s longstanding declaration that any unilateral extension of Greek territorial waters in the Aegean Sea would be considered a casus belli.
This news also worries Israel, whose own relationship with Turkey has been rapidly eroding since the start of the Gaza war, given Turkey’s continuing support for the Palestinian Sunni Islamist group Hamas after October 7, 2023, and its official suspension of trade with Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a number of American and Israeli television networks that history “teaches that when one regional power declines, another rises. Our task is to make sure Israel continues rising faster than anyone else.”
This explains why Netanyahu launched a public campaign against Trump’s apparent willingness to sell the fighter jets to Turkey, which is the very state now furiously jockeying to replace Iran as the Middle East’s dominant power. Selling F-35s to Ankara reflects a growing conviction in Israel that Turkey is shaping up to be Israel’s principal long-term challenge.
Turkey, Netanyahu contends, “has aggressive aspirations” and “is not a force for peace and security.” F-35 planes in its hands would “destroy the power balance” in the region
Erdogan dismissed objections by Greece and Israel to a potential F-35 sale, saying there was “no place” for such opposition. “Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis should not have made the mistake of opposing Turkey’s purchase of the aircraft,” he replied. “We have the right to acquire aircraft and defensive equipment, and we are holding talks on this matter.”
Turkey has the second largest army in NATO and a burgeoning defence industrial base. Turkish defence and aviation exports broke records last year, exceeding $10 billion. All of this has won admiration from Trump.
“I haven’t totally made up my mind, but my inclination is to say, look, he’s done everything, he’s helped us in so many different ways,” Trump said of Erdogan during a news conference at the NATO summit. Trump repeatedly praised Erdogan, calling him “really a great man” and “a great leader.” Greece and Israel won’t be able to prevent the deal.
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