Democrats Effectively Won Midterms

By Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

The American midterm elections did not turn out as Republicans had expected nor as many polls had predicted. Instead of a “red tide,” the electorate delivered a ripple and a very small majority in the House of Representatives for the GOP. Democrats retain control of the Senate even with a December runoff in Georgia still pending. The two chambers of Congress will be divided.

I won’t go into the minutiae of individual wins and losses, or longwinded analyses of races in individual states. Enough has already been written since the Nov. 8 contests to fill several bookshelves.

BLAME TRUMP

A lot of the fault lies with Donald Trump, that’s for sure, and most high-profile candidates he endorsed went down to defeat. It’s possible the Republicans otherwise could have won the Senate and a bigger majority in the House. Already many of his erstwhile supporters have now turned on him, as the party grapples with an underwhelming performance. They now look to Ron Desantis, who won re-election as governor of Florida by a landslide, as their great hope for 2024.

Trump seems to be one of those people who think they are indispensable. They’d rather lose as a candidate than have some other Republican – even one with similar views – become president. A solid and devoted core of his supporters appears ready to follow Trump wherever he leads again, even if into defeat.

But even if Trump retires to Mar-alago, it still feels like the United States is moving in the same direction as Canada: a left-of-centre country with the right-wing party a permanent minority, winning power occasionally nationwide while remaining very popular only in certain regions. In Canada, that would be the prairies, in the United States, the south and far western Rocky Mountain states.

RURAL DIVIDE

The big cities in both countries, are now a world apart, culturally, demographically, economically, and geographically, from the rural and small towns in what has become the political hinterlands – “flyover country.” And they vote solidly against the Republicans in the U.S. and the Conservatives in Canada.

The political left-of-centre has a hammerlock on them, and in American presidential and statewide Senate contests, where it’s “winner take all,” urban populations in vote-rich states typically outnumber rural residents. The result is Democratic victories.

Apparently younger voters in the U.S. came out in greater numbers than predicted, or in previous elections, and voted solidly Democratic. The results should give Republicans cause to worry. The cultural, educational, and media institutions in the United States all tilt “progressive,” and, as many writers have noted, politics is downstream from culture.

“Give me a child till he is seven years old,” remarked Ignatius Loyola, founder of the Jesuit Order, “and I will show you the man.”

PERMANENT MAJORITY

The economy alone should have beaten the Democrats by a red wave, but the Democrats effectively painted the Republican Party as a danger to democracy and human rights, perhaps even “semi-fascist,” in President Joe Biden’s words. The Supreme Court decision to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision which made abortion legal across the country was a particularly decisive issue that worked against the GOP.

In Canada, Justin Trudeau will take heart and think that, despite his many foibles, he can beat Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in the next federal election. In the U.S., the real test will come in 2024, if Trump is no longer dragging Republicans down.

If a Desantis sort of nominee loses to a Biden-type Democrat, assuming Biden is gone, the onward march of demography — younger and more diverse ethnic populations in urban centres — will prove unbeatable, and the Democrats will be a permanent majority, with Republicans retaining House seats in mainly rural areas of diminishing population.

“We’ve won seven of the last eight elections in the popular vote, we’ve got more registered, we have a new crop of young people every year, plus the fact that 70 per cent of eligible voters are either women, people of colour, or 18 to 25 year olds, or a combination of the three,” left-wing filmmaker Michael Moore told London’s Guardian. “That’s the Democratic party’s base.”

To overcome this, Republicans would need, in the words of a Polish Communist in the 1970s exasperated that his fellow citizens hated Communism, “a new population.”

 

Turkey a Major Player in Russia-Ukraine War

  By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, N.B.] Telegraph-Journal

Since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Turkey has become a major diplomatic player. The country’s geographic position is strategically important, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has leveraged his role as the only NATO member who is an interlocuter between the two sides to gain influence and status. Ankara enjoys good relations with both Moscow and Kyiv, a rarity nowadays.

Turkey is striving, in Erdogan’s words, to “not give up” the country’s ties with either Russia or Ukraine. This isn’t surprising, given the balancing act that Erdogan has long pursued between his NATO allies and their top European adversary, Russia. For Ankara, this provides an opening for its efforts to lead an independent foreign policy, by positioning itself between the West and Russia.

The Turkish public seems to support this policy. Polling over the past few months show that some 80 per cent want their country to remain neutral in the Ukraine conflict.

In fact, when asked in an April survey by prominent Turkish pollster Metropoll whom they held responsible for the war, only 33.7 per cent blamed Moscow. Nearly half of respondents, on the other hand, pointed to the United States and NATO. 

Relations between Turkey and Russia have improved despite disagreements between the two countries in several regions: Syria, Libya, the Caucasus, and the Crimean Peninsula, where there is a Tatar minority with whom Turkish public opinion feels a special bond.

Turkey is the most moderate NATO member vis-à-vis Moscow. It did not impose sanctions on Russia and did not close its airspace to Russian aircraft. It has kept its doors open to Russian travelers and even encouraged sanctioned Russian oligarchs to plow their wealth into Turkey’s economy.

Russia is a significant energy supplier for Turkey: approximately a third of natural gas imports to Turkey come from Russia, and Russia is also an important source of oil and fuel. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are important providers of wheat for Turkey as well as of sunflower oil.

After all, Turkey needs Russian cash, gas and business, while Moscow needs friends to try to evade Western sanctions. Putin also benefits from a close connection to a member of NATO, which is trying to isolate him and help Ukraine defeat his invading army.

Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met alongside Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran July 19 to discuss a proposal to allow for grain to be exported from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. When Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement three days later, by creating a demilitarized corridor through the Black Sea, Erdogan played the role of benevolent statesman and praised Russia’s “very, very positive approach.” Seated next to United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres in Istanbul, he declared that the deal would benefit “the whole of humanity.” Shipments to African nations were deemed especially important.

In an apparent move to solidify Moscow’s hold over European energy markets, Putin on Oct. 13 offered to export more gas via Turkey and turn the country into a regional supply hub for Russian gas exports to European countries.

He met with Erdogan at a summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, days after Moscow launched the biggest aerial barrage against Ukraine since its invasion. Erdogan ordered his government to quickly present their implementation plans, saying that the hub “will be an international distribution center.”

After the Nord Stream Baltic gas pipelines from Russia to Germany were damaged by explosions in September, Moscow suggested Turkey could be the best route for redirecting gas supplies to the European Union. The TurkStream Natural Gas Pipeline, inaugurated in January 2020. runs through the Black Sea and Turkey to southeastern Europe, and is currently the only pipeline that still supplies significant quantities of Russian gas to Europe.

However, the Kremlin said TurkStream by itself cannot be a replacement for the Nord Stream pipelines through the Baltic Sea. In any case, energy experts consider it unlikely that the EU would approve new Russian gas conduits to Europe.

Ankara claims that not taking measures against Moscow is necessary to allow it to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, and that its policy allows it room for maneuver without provoking any side. Apparently, Erdogan or his top aides speak to Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine several times a week.

On Sept. 21, Turkey helped negotiate a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, the largest since the war began. It involved almost 300 people, including the Ukrainian commanders who had led the defence of Mariupol and its Azovstal steelworks.

At the same time, though, Turkish drones have garnered international attention for their success in Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Ukraine was the first country to purchase them and owns between 20 and 50 made by the Turkish company Baykar.

In fighting against the Russian forces, the Ukrainian army has used these drones with great success. Zelensky has honored Haluk Bayraktar, the CEO of Baykar, the manufacturer of the Bayraktar drones, as a sign of gratitude for its support.

Putin has called Erdogan “a strong, firm leader who is guided by the interests of Turkey, the Turkish people, and the Turkish economy.” On June 18 next year, voters will decide whether to keep Erdogan in office. I wouldn’t give his opponents much chance of unseating him.

 

Should Ukraine be Disappointed with Israel?

  By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, N.B.] Telegraph-Journal

Israel has just held yet another election, and we shall see how this will affect its relations with Ukraine and Russia. The country seems to have been singled out – I think unfairly – by Kyiv for not providing more military aid to Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have consistently pressed Israel on the issue since the Russian invasion on Feb. 24.

Though it has sent shipments of humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Israel has repeatedly rebuffed Kyiv’s requests for defence weapons, specifically the highly effective Iron Dome missile defence system which could help protect against rockets, drones, and some types of missiles.

Israel’s refusal is seen as an attempt by Jerusalem to maintain working ties with Moscow, due to Russia’s control of Syrian air space, where Israel’s air force has carried out hundreds of sorties against alleged Iranian arms shipments and in order to keep groups backed by Tehran from establishing a foothold.

Meanwhile, Zelensky’s chief of staff held a virtual meeting Oct. 20 with leaders of Jewish organizations and prominent Russian-speaking Israelis, asking them to push Jerusalem to provide Kyiv with air defence systems.

Andriy Yermak pointed to Russia’s expanding use of Iranian drones to argue that Israel can no longer remain on the sidelines of the eight-month-long war. Iran is Israel’s arch-enemy, and Ukrainian officials have expressed dismay that Israel’s stance has not changed even as Iranian weapons play a growing role in the fight.

Zelensky did announce a week later that Israel had started sharing with Ukraine intelligence on the Iranian drones now used by Russia. Nonetheless, on Oct. 30 Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevgen Korniychuk said his country wants the United States to step up pressure on Israel. “The Americans are the only country that Israel is listening to,” he argued.

He also reported that he holds weekly meetings with his American counterpart, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides, as part of a process to push Israel to send defence equipment to Ukraine. “I’m joking, but I’m calling him our secret weapon” to bring Israel in line, he added.

Yair Lapid, then the Israeli Prime Minister, was frustrated by the pressure. Addressing supporters at an Oct. 22 election rally, he told listeners that he had asked Washington in return “why the American Air Force is not bombing the Russian forces in Kherson.”

Benjamin Netanyahu, who has snatched victory to become the new Israeli leader, has been a strong supporter of Israel’s ties with Russia. He doesn’t hate Russia and isn’t impressed with the idea of helping America fight for “democracy.”

 Still, in an Oct. 21 interview, Netanyahu said that if he returns to power, he will “look into” supplying weapons to Ukraine. “We will try to help Ukraine regarding Iranian involvement and regarding the relationship between Russia and Iran.”

Russia has said it would respond if Israel passed along air-defence systems directly or through a third party to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s support for a United Nations General Assembly resolution passed Oct. 30, calling for a nuclear-free Middle East, has also been a source of tension with Israel.

The resolution noted that Israel is the only country in the Middle East and one of the few among the UN’s 193 member states, which has not signed the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty. This was harshly criticized in Israel, with Israelis pointing out that Kyiv was “demanding aid from Israel while at the same time voting against it at the UN.”

The Chief Rabbi of Ukraine, Moshe Reuven Azman, even sent a letter to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, saying the vote was a “terrible mistake that undid months of cooperation, support, and dialogue. It could sabotage the efforts of all those who worked for the expansion of Israeli aid to Ukraine. In Israel, the vote is viewed as a hostile action and even as a knife in the back.”

But Ambassador Korniychuk claimed that at no point did any representative of Israel contact Ukraine’s UN delegation in advance of the vote. If Jerusalem wanted a change, “then it should have said something.” The ambassador also noted that Israel has refrained from recognizing Russia as an aggressor state after Ukraine asked all members of the General Assembly to do so.

Many Israelis also criticize the pressure from Washington to aid Ukraine with weaponry. Americans, they assert, should not hold Israel to a standard the United States is unwilling to follow itself. After all, Washington has not provided the Patriot Air and Missile Defence System to Ukraine – because it needs it to protect U.S. troops.

And the missile threat to Israel is, after all, not theoretical. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have already rained rockets into Israel in recent confrontations. And Lebanon-based Hezbollah has about 150,000 rockets and missiles and an estimated 2,000 drones.

What if Russia captured an Iron Dome system sent to Ukraine and then provided the system and its information to Iran, which might develop capabilities to circumvent it?

It is, at the very least, unseemly to guilt-trip Israel this way. After all, 30 NATO countries, including three nuclear-armed powers, are already providing massive military aid to Ukraine. Why browbeat an Israel surrounded by enemies? And did Ukraine ever ask Israel if it needed help when it’s been periodically attacked?