Lament from the Ivory Tower

Henry Srebrnik, The Calgary Herald

It's egg-on-face time. The week before the U.S.presidential election, I predicted on the Herald's editorial page that John Kerry would make George W. Bush a one-term president. Indeed, I thought Kerry would win quite handily.

I was of course very wrong. So why did I misread it so badly?

I guess I've been living in an academic bubble for so long that its very atmosphere has, as it were, seeped into my thinking. Even though I considered George Bush worthy of a second term, I nonetheless fell victim to the ideological "hegemony" of the liberal intelligentsia, who by and large control the major American newspapers and universities, and, in that sense, frame the very political debate.

Like them, I came up with all the reasons that made it seem that Kerry would (or in their case, should) win in 2004. Since the ability to articulate and explain policies and analyze data and facts is our stock in trade, I was particularly impressed by Kerry's clear superiority in the presidential debates.

It's clear I overestimated the Democratic tilt among newly registered voters, who either split more evenly between Bush and Kerry or in many cases didn't bother to vote, while underestimating the Christian evangelical vote for Bush. That last, for someone like myself, who does recognize the power of religious values, was unpardonable.

The economy was clearly less of an issue than I thought it would be. People do not always vote their pocketbooks. I've been saying that to Marxists and socialists for decades--but I forgot to take my own advice.

Finally, the American people is more steadfast in supporting the war on terrorism and the ongoing battle in Iraq than I gave them credit for.

Well, I did get one thing right: Ralph Nader was not a factor this time around.

There is indeed, as Richard Nixon famously remarked, a "silent majority" that doesn't care about Michael Moore's propaganda movies, Robert Redford's threat to leave the U.S. if Bush won, or Bruce Springsteen's political advice.