Professor Henry Srebrnik

Professor Henry Srebrnik

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Israel's Precarious Geo-Political Position


Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian 

To see how badly Israel’s geopolitical position has deteriorated, we need to go back some four decades.

Back then, Israel could count on the support of three non-Arab states which themselves bordered the Arab world: Persian-majority Iran, Imperial Ethiopia, and Turkey. 

Developed by David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s first prime minister, this so called periphery doctrine was a foreign policy strategy that called for the country to develop close strategic alliances with an “outer ring” of non-Arab states to counteract the united opposition of the Arab world to the existence of Israel. 

Thus, nations such as Turkey and Iran were steadily cultivated by the Israeli government. The aim was to forge structures of mutual cooperation bent on countering pan-Arab nationalists and opposing the spread of Communism.

Turkey, then a resolutely secular state that had turned its back on its Ottoman past, sought integration with the economies and democracies of Europe. It was a member of NATO and a staunch ally of the United States.

On the throne since 1941, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, also considered himself a modernizer. An American ally, he tried to forge a national identity that would include the country’s pre-Muslim history and saw himself as heir to the kings of ancient Iran. 

Haile Selassie, the Emperor of Ethiopia from 1930 on, was also pro-American. His Christian imperial dynasty claimed descent from the biblical King Solomon and the Queen of Sheba. 

In 1950, both Turkey and Iran established diplomatic relations with Israel, and Ethiopia followed suit six years later. Throughout the decade, a strategic military partnership was built with Iran and Turkey, as both states were wary of the pan-Arabism and pro-Soviet policies of Egypt’s Gamel Adel Nasser. Ethiopia, too, feared Nasser’s ambitions in Africa.

In 1958 a series of regular quarterly meetings was initiated among the heads of the intelligence services of Israel, Turkey, and Iran. The Ethiopians collaborated as well. During the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, Iran supplied Israel with essential oil. 

This all now lies in ruins. The entente with Ethiopia was the first to collapse. In 1974, the old emperor was overthrown in a coup led by radical Marxists, under the leadership of Mengistu Haile Mariam, and the country became an ally of the Soviet Union. It turned its back on Israel.

Although the Mengistu regime collapsed in 1991, replaced by a new federal republic, Ethiopian relations with Israel – despite the resumption of diplomatic ties -- are no longer of much importance. 

 A far more serious break occurred in 1979, with the overthrow of the Shah of Iran. The new Islamic Republic of Iran severed relations with Israel, and its leaders, beginning with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, consider Israel an illegal entity and advocate its destruction. 

Most recently, the previously solid relationship with Turkey has also frayed. The Turkish election victory in 2002 of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) signaled a change in Turkey’s political and cultural orientation.

The country is now governed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a devout Muslim. Relations between the two nations began to falter following Turkey’s condemnation of Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza in the winter of 2008-2009.

Tensions grew in 2010 when a Turkish humanitarian convoy, tried to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza. The convoy was blocked by the Israeli military, and resulted in the deaths of nine Turkish citizens. 

In 2011, Turkey recalled its ambassador from Tel Aviv. During last summer’s war between Hamas and Israel, Erdogan’s enmity towards the Jewish state knew no bounds.  

Religion now trumps ethnicity in the Middle East. Pan-Arabism and secular Arab nationalism became a spent force, replaced by various forms of Islamic identity. This means that non-Arab Iran and Turkey are no longer alien to the Arab world butt has enabled them to serve as allies to various Shi’ite and Sunni forces in the region. Iran now supports Arab proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.

So Israel now faces Iran-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Turkish-supported Hamas in Gaza, and is isolated as never before.

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