The Cyprus Issue Drags On

Henry Srebrnik, [Summerside, PEI] Journal Pioneer

It’s one of those disputes that never seem to reach a resolution – especially given the role of foreign parties.

A historic effort to end the division of the partitioned island of Cyprus began in January. Since 1974, it has been divided between a Turkish north and a Greek south.

Even its capital city of Nicosia is split in two by the “green line” that divides the (Greek) Republic of Cyprus, the officially recognized state, from the de facto Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). United Nations peacekeepers oversee a buffer zone across the island.

The latest round of negotiations, sponsored by the UN, began on Jan. 12, as the foreign ministers of Great Britain, Greece and Turkey, the three countries that are designated as “guarantors” of the nation’s sovereignty under the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee, met in Geneva.

It prompted the new UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres, to state that Cyprus could be “a symbol of hope” this year.

The commitment to a settlement shown by the leaders of the two Cypriot communities – President Nicos Anastasiades of the Republic of Cyprus and Mustafa Akinci of the TRNC -- also helped to raise expectations.

But everything on the island is fraught with symbolism. The Greek Cypriot government recently decided to introduce the commemoration of “Enosis” in its public schools.

It celebrates a 1950 referendum, when 96 per cent of Greeks voted for the island to be annexed to Greece. This made Turkish Cypriots angry, and Akinci has insisted that Anastasiades rescind the legislation.

The purpose of the talks is to create a unified, though federated, political structure, with a rotating presidency. Any agreement would have to be sanctioned by the UN and put to a referendum on both sides of the island.

It has always been understood that some of the territory controlled by the Turkish Cypriots will be ceded to Greek Cypriot control in any peace deal, to allow at least 90,000 Greek Cypriots displaced by the 1974 Turkish invasion to return to their homes.

The debate over how much land should be handed over and its location has hampered previous talks.

The last time a peace deal was close at hand, in 2004, it was accepted by the Turkish Cypriots in a referendum but rejected by the Greek Cypriots.

But two major powers might still derail the current process.

Much will depend on Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is unpredictable. It is he who will decide whether Turkey makes the concessions needed to solve the Cyprus problem.

Erdogan on Jan. 13 announced that Turkey would not withdraw from the island as long as Greek troops were also stationed there. “Full withdrawal of Turkish troops from Cyprus is not possible,” he said.

Otherwise, Turkish troops would remain on the island “forever.”

The Republic was admitted to the European Union in 2004, but the north has not been able to share in its benefits. Still, Turkey will never abandon its Cypriot ethnic kin.

Russia also is proving to be a problem. As the negotiations in Geneva got underway Russia’s ambassador to the Republic of Cyprus, Stanislav Osadchiy, attended a seminar dedicated to derailing any prospect of an agreement. This delighted hard-line rejectionist Greek Cypriot politicians in Nicosia.

Bound to Russia by a shared Orthodox Christian faith and its role as a financial and banking center for Russian business, many Greeks in the south of the island have historically looked to Moscow, as well as to Athens, as a protector.

About 40,000 Russians live on the island, and own real estate and businesses. They are also a major source of tourist revenue for Cyprus. Some 525,000 Russians visited the island in 2015; only Britain provides more tourists. Cyprus also wants to get Russian firms involved in exploiting its offshore oil and gas energy sector.

Russia seeks to weaken and divide NATO, but a settlement of the Cyprus issue could strengthen the alliance by resolving the larger conflict between Greece and Turkey, which are both members .

Moscow worries that a reunified Cyprus might even join NATO, which would also mean an end to Russia’s military use of Greek Cypriot ports for its warships, gained in 2015.

Russia has made it clear that an agreement in Cyprus can only take place if Russia supports, or at least tolerates, it.