On Feb. 1,1979, Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini landed at
Tehran’s Mehrabad International Airport, after more than 14 years in exile. And
the world changed forever.
An Iranian monarchy that had seemed so secure had now
crumbled into dust and the country’s ruler, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, had
already fled the country.
A few months later, at a talk I gave in Toronto, I suggested
that this would prove to be an event even more important that the 1917
Bolshevik Revolution in Russia.
I was right. The Soviet Union no longer exists, while Iran’s
Islamic Republic goes from strength to strength.
Iran remains a very strong state, supported by a robust form
of religiously-based nationalism. It exports its ideology throughout the Middle
East and farther afield. It provides weapons to proxies and supports terrorism,
while also working diligently to destroy Israel.
How did all this come about? It all began in 1963, when the
Shah instituted a series of measures intended to accelerate Iran’s
modernization and strengthen and centralize his power. These reforms were known
as the White Revolution.
In return, he was arrested and then exiled to Turkey. He then settled in the Shi’ite holy city of Najaf in Iraq, where he continued to call for the Shah’s overthrow. Forced to leave Iraq in October 1978, Khomeini moved to a suburb of Paris – but not for long.
Following his return to Iran, Khomeini oversaw the writing
of the country’s new constitution, which has been called a hybrid of theocratic
and democratic elements. While there are elections for the presidency and the
Majlis, or parliament, they are subordinate to the Council of Guardians, a
clerical body, and the Supreme Leader.
As the highest-ranking political and religious authority in
the nation, the Ayatollah became the country’s ruler, and governed until his
death on June 3, 1989. His successor, Ali Khamenei, rules today.
It hasn’t always been smooth sailing for the regime. The
mullahs had to cope with the brutal invasion unleashed by Iraq’s Saddam Hussein
in 1980; the eight-year conflict resulted in the deaths of hundreds of
thousands of Iranians.
They have also faced resistance from their own people at
times; for example, there were major disturbances in 2009 following the clearly
rigged re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The regime was forced to respond with violence, and many
hundreds of protestors died or were imprisoned in the post-election unrest.
A year ago, Iranians, facing economic hardships, poured into
the streets to denounce Supreme Leader Khamenei. But the clerical
establishment has always weathered these storms. In fact, Tehran has taken
advantage of the chaos unleashed by the Arab Spring by expanding its reach
across the Middle East.
It now virtually controls the fates of Lebanon, Iraq, and
Syria, and supports a Shi’a uprising in Yemen. The Sunni Arab states, led by
Saudi Arabia, now live in fear of Iran, so much so that they are even prepared
to work with Israel. Iran has even had covert contacts with the Taliban in
Afghanistan.
The United States for the past four decades has used both
the carrot and the stick approach when dealing with Tehran.
President Barack Obama tried to reason with the regime’s
political leaders; this culminated in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA), signed by Washington along with China, France, Germany, Russia,
the United Kingdom, and the European Union.
On May 8, 2018, President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew
from the deal and re-imposed sanctions. He has been far more outspoken about
the dangers posed by the regime.
Tehran was probably continuing the work on developing
nuclear weapons in any case. Should they eventually succeed, Tel Aviv will
disappear from the face of the earth. The Iranian mullahs should never be underestimated.
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