Will Scots Try to Leave the UK Again?

By Henry Srebrnik, [Fredericton, NB] Daily Gleaner

In many ways, the success of the 2016 referendum on Brexit was the product of a resurgent English nationalism. 

The other parts of the United Kingdom voted to remain. In Scotland, 62 per cent of the voting population, and every single council area, voted to stay in the European Union.

The UK since the 1990s has gone through several rounds of devolution of powers, notably to Scotland, which have turned it into a highly asymmetrical, de facto partially federal, system.

In September 1997, a referendum was put to the Scottish electorate and secured a majority in favour of the establishment of a new devolved Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh. Two years later, power was transferred from the British parliament to the new assembly, though Scotland continued to be represented at Westminster as well.

How has this affected the sovereignty movement in Scotland? Independence, once only supported by marginal groups, is now the preferred option of almost half the population.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) now dominates the political landscape. It is the largest political party in Scotland, where it holds 62 of the 129 seats in the Scottish parliament, as well as 35 of the 59 Scottish seats in the British House of Commons.

In September 2014 1.6 million Scots – about 45 per cent of the electorate -- voted to restore Scottish sovereignty, on a turnout was over 84 per cent. (Scotland was united with England and Wales into a unitary Great Britain in 1707.)

Regional-nationalist parties have typically adopted strategies of “independence in Europe,” implying secession from the existing state but continued membership of the EU as an additional member state.

This appeal to the European dimension has played a central role in their campaigns. It has paid off, particularly in Scotland. 

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister and SNP leader, wants to see another Scottish referendum by 2021. She has called for a general election in Britain in order to defeat Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

 “The facts are simple: the SNP has a mandate for a referendum, the Scottish Parliament has voted for a referendum and the Scottish people want an independence referendum,” SNP Deputy Leader Keith Brown has said.

Ian Blackford, the SNP’s House leader in the British Parliament, has asserted that it would be anti-democratic for any politician in London to oppose another referendum.

“It’s particularly important given that in our referendum in 2014, we were told if Scotland stayed in the UK, our rights as EU citizens would be respected,” he added. “We are being taken out of the European Union against our will.”

It can no longer be presumed that Scotland would vote “no” again in an independence ballot. But an independent and EU-member Scotland would face severe challenges in managing relations with a rump UK, a country no longer in the EU, but one which would remain Scotland’s largest market and most important partner in so many ways. 

Remaining part of the UK and holding membership in the EU look more and more like mutually exclusive options, rather than complementary ones.

Thus, Scotland’s independence movement faces both renewed urgency in the eyes of many and even more formidable political and economic obstacles than in 2014.