Can the Iranian Regime Survive Sanctions, COVID?

By Henry Srebrnik, [Fredericton, NB] Daily Gleaner
 

Hit hard by American sanctions and then the coronavirus, how stable is the Iranian regime? Many think it is on its last legs, but it has proved very resilient over the past four decades.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, has been in power since 1989, following the death of the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Washington, which has been at odds with Tehran since the 1979 Islamic revolution, re-imposed stiff sanctions on the Iranian regime two years ago, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

According to a Jan. 1 article in the London Arab newspaper al-Sharq al-Awsat, Iranian president Hassan Rouhani admitted damage to the Iranian economy resulting from sanctions had reached $200 billion by the end of 2019.

A sharp decline in the price of oil has made matters worse. On April 22, Brent crude, a global benchmark, fell to a two-decade low of $15.98 a barrel — down from nearly $70 per barrel in early January.

With the economy shrinking at the rate of 10 percent a year, inflation likely to reach 31 per cent, and unemployment around the 20 per cent mark, the regime has been under increasing pressure.

The Iranian regime’s disastrous response to the coronavirus pandemic could pose a greater threat to the survival of the ayatollahs than the impact of Washington’s uncompromising sanctions regime.

Iran has been devastated by the pandemic, having recorded some 138,000 officially confirmed cases and almost 7,500 deaths by late May. Some 10,000 health workers have been infected. (Some sources claim the death toll is far higher.) 

The COVID-19 virus may have been brought to the country by a merchant from Qom who had travelled to China in February.

As the weeks went on, and the epidemic spread, the Iranian media remained nearly silent. Shi’ite shrines in Qom were kept open until the middle of March. In Tehran businesses and restaurants were not ordered to close. 

Officials were worried about relations with China -- one of the few countries that has continued to buy Iranian oil since the imposition of American-backed sanctions. So for weeks after the outbreak was reported in Wuhan, Iran’s Mahan Air, controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), continued direct flights there.

Social distancing was not observed and parliamentary elections took place on Feb. 21 as scheduled, at the urging of Khamenei.

Throughout February the regime told people not to worry about the virus. On Feb. 19 Khamenei accused Iran’s enemies of exaggerating the threat. A week later, Rouhani warned against the “conspiracies and fear-mongering of our enemies.” Other regime organs said the pandemic was part of a “Zionist plot” to gain global power.

But the severity of the threat couldn’t be kept hidden forever. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif announced on March 12 that Iran was asking the International Monetary Fund for five billion dollars in emergency funding to counter the spread of the coronavirus. But Washington blocked the request.

In a speech 10 days later, Khamenei claimed the virus was “created by America” and asserted that the U.S. sanctions had hampered efforts to curb the outbreak.

The regime’s own personnel fell ill; at least 20 clerics and political figures have died.

On Nov. 15 of last year, the government announced that it was raising the price of gasoline by fifty per cent, leading to major protests. The Khamenei-controlled IRGC and the Basij Resistance Force killed some fifteen hundred people.

A major reason for the regime’s brutality was due to the fact that the rallies turned into riots aimed at state institutions and the clergy. In the heavily Arab province of Ahvaz and in Iranian Kurdistan, there were into armed encounters between deeply embittered ethnic minorities and the security forces, posing a danger to the physical integrity of the state.  

Ayatollah Khamenei is 81 years old and not in the best of health. The next Supreme Leader will be chosen by a group of senior clerics known as the Assembly of Experts. But the coronavirus outbreak has strengthened the IRGC. It may have the final say on who succeeds Khamenei.