By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, N.B.] Telegraph-Journal
The American people have spoken, loud and clear. They gave Donald Trump a massive victory Nov. 5. How will his victory affect the rest of the world? Here are some winners and losers:
Winner: India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindutva ideology will find no opposition from Trump, who has no issues with ethno-religious nationalism. Modi’s program to make India great again (MIGA?) suits Trump just fine. They are populists and kindred spirits. Hardliners in the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government will be delighted to have a man who has expressed pro-Hindu sentiments and has take a tough stand on Islamist fundamentalism.
Winner: Israel. Israelis trust Trump as the man who recognised Jerusalem as their capital, moved the U.S. embassy there, recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and said that settlement-building was not per se against international law.
This will strengthen Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has called Trump the “best friend that Israel has ever had in the White House.” Israel will have more of a free hand dealing with Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and their paymaster, Iran. Netanyahu might even give in to the temptation to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. Trump probably won’t stop him.
Winner: Russia. During the campaign, Trump repeatedly said he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine “in a day.” When asked how, he suggested overseeing a deal, but has declined to give specifics. Meanwhile, a Russian push through the northern Donbas is gaining momentum and could eventually threaten the largely Russian-speaking Kharkiv.
The coming administration is tired of the Russo-Ukrainian and other endless wars. Russia, undefeated, will keep Crimea and the Russophone Luhansk and Donetsk areas in eastern Ukraine, thereby creating a partition that should have taken place in 1991, when the Soviet Union fell apart. These were Communist-created borders, drawn up by Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev.
Losers and Winner: Latin America. Poor Cuba, which is already in major economic and political trouble, knows that there will be no relaxation of American pressure. In fact, Trump threatened that the leadership in Cuba could “be changed” once he’s in power. The left-wing regimes in Brazil and Venezuela also can expect little love from Trump.
But Argentina’s far-right libertarian President Javier Milei, who shares a similar brash style with Trump, is a winner. He called Trump’s win “formidable,” and has pledged to carry out a foreign policy with only two nations, the U.S. and Israel.
Loser: Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky made a big mistake accompanying Kamala Harris to a munitions factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, in September, providing a boost to the Harris campaign, which riled Trump. Already a skeptic when it comes to the war, Trump won’t forget this. Zelensky also called Vice-President-elect J.D. Vance “too radical” and “dangerous.” The new administration will stop sending endless billions of dollars to Kyiv, forcing Ukraine to reach a deal with Vladimir Putin.
Loser: China. When he was in office, Trump labelled China a “strategic competitor” and imposed tariffs on some Chinese imports to the U.S. This sparked tit-for-tat tariffs by Beijing on American imports. There were efforts to de-escalate the trade dispute, but the pandemic wiped out this possibility, and relations got worse as the former president labelled COVID a “Chinese virus.”
Trump has said he would impose tariffs of 60 per cent or more on all Chinese imports to protect U.S. industry as he attempts to revive the domestic American economy.
Loser: Iran. There will certainly be no new nuclear deal with the theocracy. Trump stated during his campaign that President Joe Biden’s policy of not rigorously enforcing oil-export sanctions has weakened Washington and emboldened Tehran, allowing it to sell oil, accumulate cash and expand its nuclear pursuits and influence through armed militias.
A Trump administration return to a “maximum-pressure” campaign on Iran could lead to a major decrease in Iranian crude exports. Iranians are worried that Trump may give Israel a green light to attack their oil assets and other infrastructure.
Loser: Great Britain. Foreign secretary David Lammy in July 2018 wrote an article about Trump in Time magazine, referring to Trump as a “tyrant in a toupee” and a “neo-Nazi-sympathizing sociopath.” Also, last month Trump’s campaign filed a formal legal complaint with the Federal Election Commission alleging illegal foreign election interference by the Labour Party.
The complaint cites a decision by Labour to send a hundred party activists to swing states to campaign for Kamala Harris. That puts Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the position of leader of a party Trump has accused of actively working against him.
Loser: Canada. Trump has no time for Justin Trudeau’s ideological “woke” foreign policy and thinks the prime minister is a fool. He will bear down on Canada’s “free ride” in NATO. Trump has long been a sceptic of the alliance, accusing Europe of free-riding on America’s promise of protection.
He will demand Canada increase its defence spending, and quickly. He has also recently spoken about placing tariffs on Canadian imports, another issue that would be a sticking point with this country. Also in question is the future of United States-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. The three partners must decide in 2026 whether to extend it for another 16 years.
Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride, now that Trump is back for a second act.
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