Will Yemen’s Houthis Block the Red Sea?

 

By Henry Srebrnik, Saint John Telegraph-Journal

The ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States has made the world aware of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway that serves as a chokehold between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. On one side lies Ian, on the other an exclave of Oman.

On the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, the Bab el-Mandeb strait serves a similar function between the Red Sea, with the Suez Canal connecting it to the Mediterranean Sea, at its north, and the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean to the south. It separates Yemen on the Middle Eastern side and Djibouti and Eritrea on the African side. And it is a waterway through which about 12 per cent of seaborne-traded oil travels.

While Iran blocks the first waterway, Yemen’s Houthis might now do the same at the second. They are the strongest remaining member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, and they are currently exerting significant pressure on America’s Gulf allies.

The Houthi rebels emerged in the 1990s from the Zaydi Shi’ite heartland of northern Yemen, fought six wars against the Yemeni government between 2004 and 2010, and seized the capital city of Sanaa in 2014. In March 2015, Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition in a major anti-Houthi military intervention, yet more than 11 years of warfare have failed to dislodge them from the capital or much of Yemen’s densely populated northwest.

The Saudis back the Aden-based ruling Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council (YPLC), the official recognized government of Yemen. There had been an on-again, off-again truce by the various contending forces in Yemen after 2022, but no longer. In July, the Iranians flew a Houthi delegation from Tehran to Sanaa, challenging the anti-Houthi Saudi-led coalition’s control of Yemen’s airspace.

To prevent the aircraft from landing, Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government bombed the Sanaa airport’s sole runway. Although the plane landed at the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah instead, the Saudi action gave the Houthis a pretext for abandoning the fragile truce. It was at that point that the group began their bold escalation against Saudi interests and launched their new offensive against government forces in Yemen. The Saudi airstrikes and the rapid Houthi response may signal the beginning of a new and dangerous phase in the conflict.

In the past few weeks, the Houthis have launched a major new bid for military dominance in the country. Backed by Iran, they unleashed a wave of drones and ballistic missiles strikes on Saudi Arabia, setting fire to oil facilities. They defeated Saudi-backed government forces along the Red Sea coast, captured the strategic port of Mokha, and seized Perim Island at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb.

Houthi control of these will allow the group to more easily harass Red Sea shipping, placing further pressure on global energy and financial markets. Saudi oil exports through the Bab el-Mandeb have plummeted 95 per cent. Now, by also targeting infrastructure and ships near the Saudi Red Sea port complex of Yanbu, an industrial center known for its oil refineries, the Houthis are threatening the transit of oil exports sent by pipeline from eastern oil fields and then shipped northward through Egypt’s Suez Canal.

Israel and the United States caused significant damage to Houthi strongholds during the Gaza War. In the spring of 2025, the Trump administration undertook more than 1,000 airstrikes; a few months later, the Israelis targeted Houthi infrastructure and assassinated the group’s de facto prime minister and its military chief of staff.

Yet, with Iranian support, these campaigns simply emboldened the group, and they assumed that Saudi Arabia would also step back. This was a miscalculation. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has clearly had enough and has been preparing for confrontation.

On July 30, Riyadh announced a 14-country naval defence coalition for the Red Sea that included Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan and Djibouti. The crown prince signed a mutual defence agreement with Turkey and Pakistan at a ceremony in Mecca with the leaders of both countries at his side. The chiefs of staff of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey then met in Riyadh July 25 under the Mecca defence pact, as Houthi attacks continued.

Yemen has many armed groups apart from the Houthis, who oppose the internationally recognized regime. In January, Saudi Arabia had a falling out with its ally in Yemen, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), when Abu Dhabi-aligned separatist forces led by the Southern Transition Council (STC) tried to assert control over all of south Yemen, which had once been the British-governed Aden Protectorate. The north has been an independent state, ruled for centuries by a monarchy.

Riyadh wants a Yemeni state capable of securing the Saudi border, while Abu Dhabi cultivated those southern forces in Yemen whose ambitions for autonomy or independence conflicted with Saudi priorities. Since then, the Emiratis have withdrawn from Yemen entirely, allowing Riyadh to unify government military forces under its direct command.

Yemen’s government has now called for a general mobilisation. Rashad al-Alimi, head of the ruling YPLC, has asked citizens to “contribute in every way possible” in the fight. He pledged to recapture Sanaa and restore government sovereignty over the whole of Yemen. This will not be easy, even with Saudi help. The Houthis are a resilient movement.