India Resists Pressure to Oppose Russia

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, N.B.] Telegraph-Journal

 After Russia invaded Ukraine, western countries formed what looked like an overwhelming global coalition: 141 countries supported a United Nations measure demanding that Russia unconditionally withdraw.

But the West never won over as much of the world as it initially seemed. Another 47 countries abstained or missed the vote, including India and China. A large majority of the world’s population lives in nations that are not aligned with the West’s Ukraine policy. Many of those “neutral” nations have since provided crucial economic or diplomatic support for Russia.

On Feb. 23, the UN General Assembly endorsed another resolution demanding that Russia withdraw from Ukraine’s territory but again China, South Africa, India and many countries in the global south continued to abstain, underlining their alienation from what they regard as the West’s war.

India has faced pressure from the West to distance itself from Moscow. Last March, Jen Psaki, then the White House press secretary, urged India to reflect on “where you want to stand when history books are written at this moment in time.” Some world leaders and diplomats expressed impatience with India for effectively abetting a Russian agenda.

New Delhi has thus far resisted that pressure, citing its long-time ties with Russia and its economic and oil needs. India’s imports from Russia have risen 430 per cent since the war began.

When Russia first invaded Ukraine, Washington warned India against buying more Russian oil, saying that New Delhi could face “consequences.” Now the U.S. is softening its stance, emphasizing that India doesn’t need to choose sides.

The changing tone reflects the middle path that India is carving out for itself in this crisis, as the nation tries to maximize its geopolitical leverage without limiting its economic opportunities.

A “world order which is still very, very deeply Western,” Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s foreign minister, told the New York Times last December, is being hurried out of existence by the impact of the war in Ukraine. It is being replaced by a world of “multi-alignment” where countries will choose their own “particular policies and preferences and interests.

“I would still like to see a more rules-based world,” Jaishankar said. “But when people start pressing you in the name of a rules-based order to give up, to compromise on what are very deep interests, at that stage I’m afraid it’s important to contest that and, if necessary, to call it out.”

“Paradoxically, the war in Ukraine has diminished trust in Western powers and concentrated people’s minds on how to hedge bets,” said Pratap Bhanu Mehta, a prominent Indian political theorist and former president of the Centre for Policy Research, a New Delhi-based think tank.

As tensions increase along India’s border with China, India doesn’t feel it can risk its relationship with Russia, a key source for weapons. Russia has been India’s largest weapons supplier since the days of the Soviet Union. Moscow supported the country with weapons over decades of nonalignment, while the United States supported India’s archenemy, Pakistan.

“For many years, the United States did not stand by us, but Moscow has,” remarked Amitabh Kant, until last year the chief executive officer of the NITI Aayog (National Institute for Transforming India Policy Commission), the main public policy think tank of the government of India.

New Delhi has enough rivals, Kant said: “Try, on top of China and Pakistan, putting Russia against you!” In December, there was another skirmish at the 2,100-mile Chinese-Indian border in the Tawang sector of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.

India and Russia celebrated the 30th anniversary of the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation they signed on Jan. 28, 1993. Denis Alipov, the Russian ambassador to India, speaking at the event, emphasized the “trusted” relationship forged by Moscow and New Delhi because of similar approaches to global issues.

“The treaty reflects India’s and Russia’s understanding of bilateral relations. It still plays a big role in our time. In particular, it is clear that neither India nor Russia will do anything that might harm the partner’s strategic interests. And this is very important in today’s turbulent and volatile world,” according to Nandan Unnikrishnan of the Centre for International Relations in the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.

Tensions over Russia’s war on Ukraine flared Feb. 24 at meetings of financial chiefs of the Group of 20 leading economies in the Indian technology hub of Bengaluru, despite host India’s reluctance to be caught between allies of Ukraine and Russia. “India is not keen to discuss or back any additional sanctions on Russia during the G20,” an Indian official told Reuters. “The existing sanctions on Russia have had a negative impact on the world.”

Washington knows it will have a hard time making a dent in this relationship. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a recent interview with the Atlantic magazine that he hoped that countries like India might consider a trajectory away from alignment with Moscow, but that the process would not happen quicky.

“There are countries that have long-standing, decades-long relationships with Russia, with the Soviet Union before, that are challenging to break off in one fell swoop,” he stated. “It’s not flipping a light switch. It’s moving an aircraft carrier.” Blinken remains optimistic -- but turning an aircraft carrier around is no easy task.