Professor Henry Srebrnik

Professor Henry Srebrnik

Thursday, March 02, 2023

Russian power Diminishes in Central Asia

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Sydney, N.S.] Cape Breton Post

None of the five post-Soviet Central Asian republics have backed Russia’s war in Ukraine, though they’ve carefully avoided condemning their powerful neighbour. Each has security worries of its own.

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which all gained independence in 1991, have close ties with Moscow but are also on good terms with Ukraine — like them, a former Soviet republic.

At the United Nations, these states have all maintained cautious neutrality: On Feb. 23, four of them abstained on a General Assembly resolution calling for a “just and lasting peace” in Ukraine that would involve Russia’s withdrawal of troops. Turkmenistan did not vote at all. No Central Asian state has endorsed Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 either.

PEACEFUL CO-EXISTENCE

Leaders in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have refrained from all comment for fear of alienating Russia, which guarantees their security against neighbouring Afghanistan.

Kyrgyzstan’s position has been less consistent: initially it appeared to back the Russian invasion, which President Sadyr Japarov called “a necessary measure to protect the civilian population of the territories of Donbas, where a large number of Russian citizens live.” But he later acknowledged Ukraine’s right as a sovereign state to determine its own foreign policy direction. Kyrgyzstan has even sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Kazakhstan has a large Russian minority in its northern region, territory which many Russian nationalists view as belonging to Russia. Not surprisingly, it restated its attachment “to the principles of territorial integrity, sovereignty and peaceful coexistence” after the referenda that led to Russia’s annexation of the Ukrainian oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

OLD EMPIRE

Before President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February, Russia played a major role in the affairs of Central Asia. His view of Central Asia as part of Russia’s sphere of influence was not unjustified.

During his first 21 years in power, Russian relations remained relatively unchanged with all five of the former Soviet Central Asian states. But with the Kremlin distracted by its flagging war, Russia’s domination over its old Soviet empire shows signs of unravelling.

The Kazakh government has spent the last year actively reaching out to the West, keen to put a line between itself and the Kremlin. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev also openly welcomed Russians fleeing Putin’s September 2022 conscription, while his government also pressured broadcasters to limit the distribution of Russian state media channels.

Kazakhstan is also looking to China for help in securing its own territory. On a visit to Kazakhstan in September, President Xi Jinping pledged to “resolutely support Kazakhstan in the defence of its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

FULL-SCALE CONFLICT

Also that month, along the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, long-running quarrels between farmers over land, water and smuggled contraband escalated into a full-scale conflict involving tanks, helicopters and rockets, as the armies of the two countries fought each other to a standstill.

The conflict, according to Kyrgyz officials, killed scores of civilians and drove more than 140,000 people from their homes. It also left many local residents and officials in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, asking why Moscow, which has bases in both countries and has long been seen as a guardian of stability, had done little to mitigate the conflict.

The border war has unsettled longstanding assumptions about Russian power. Its major base in Tajikistan reportedly saw troops drained for the fight in Ukraine. President Japarov complained that when the border fighting erupted with Tajikistan, Moscow “did nothing at all,” adding that the Russians are “taking care of so many problems of their own.”

In response, China is asserting itself. As Tajik forces were advancing, China issued a pledge of support to Kyrgyzstan. Clearly, Beijing was intruding into Russia’s sphere of influence.

NEW ERA

The United States also sees an opening, pressing Kyrgyzstan to sign a new bilateral co-operation agreement. It would replace one scrapped in 2014 after Russian pressure forced the closing of an American air base outside Bishkek that had been set up to fuel warplanes flying over Afghanistan.

The border conflict erupted just as Putin was in neighboring Uzbekistan for a summit meeting of a Chinesesponsored regional grouping, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which was attended by President Xi as well as leaders of India, Turkey, Azerbaijan and four Central Asian countries.

China delivered another affront during the summit meeting by signing an agreement with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan that fixed the route of a proposed new railway line to get Chinese exports to Europe by land without going through Russia.

Even Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon, probably Moscow’s closest ally in the region, complained to Putin about his lack of respect for the countries of Central Asia.

A new era for Central Asia has begun, and the absence of a regional hegemon means that it is much more likely to be turbulent and possibly deadly.

 

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