Is Nigeria a Democracy? It’s Complicated

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, N.B.] Telegraph-Journal

Last February, Nigeria, Africa’s biggest economy and most populous nation, held the latest in a series of regularly scheduled, democratically contested presidential elections dating back to 1999.

Voters headed to the polls Feb. 25 to elect a new president. The 2023 presidential election was an open contest with no incumbent in the race, and the emergence of third-party candidates disrupted the traditional two-party contest and created opportunities for enhanced political debate.

The U.S. State Department congratulated the victor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and hailed a “competitive election” that “represents a new period for Nigerian politics and democracy.” Tinubu was inaugurated May 29.

But is that really the whole story? The 2023 election took place under a deteriorating security situation, as the country was grappling with incidents of violent extremism. From kidnappings for ransom in the northwest to a 13-year Islamist insurgency in the northeast, separatist violence in the southeast, and ethnic tensions mostly between herders and farmers in the north-central region, Nigeria is rife with instability.

Additionally, inflation has reached its highest point in nearly two decades, hitting double-digit figures; it currently stands at more than 22 per cent. The naira, Nigeria’s currency, has plunged to record lows. One in three Nigerians are unemployed. Meanwhile, corruption remains at endemic levels. As the economy suffers, hundreds of Nigerians have decided to leave the country in a punishing brain drain after finishing their studies.

Despite 18 political parties signing a Peace Accord last September, committing them to peace in the leadup to the polls, the campaigns were frequently marred by violence between party supporters and the use of hate speech and inflammatory language by party leaders. Election day violence and disruptions occurred in at least 18 states and the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja.

Independent election observers had raised alarm bells about widespread voting irregularities. The election was widely criticized for targeted violence, lack of transparency, significant voter disenfranchisement, and outright vote manipulation and vote buying in some states. For example, a civil rights organisation, Yiaga Africa, said that the results from Imo and Rivers states were inconsistent with its projections for them.

In fact, not long before the election, Nigerian society had been thrown into turmoil by the decision of the outgoing president, Muhammadu Buhari, to withdraw the country’s old banknotes from circulation and replace them with newly designed bills.

Many interpreted this as an attempt to combat counterfeiting and rein in the scourge of vote-buying by rival campaigns, although this didn’t appear to have much effect.

Coming on top of demoralizing gasoline shortages -- this, in an OPEC member state -- and economic desperation among the poor, the sudden change of currency caused chaos and contributed to a low turnout in what was arguably one of the most important elections in the world. Although more than 93 million Nigerians were registered to vote, only about 25 million cast ballots -- at 26.7 per cent, it was the lowest participation rate in the country’s history.

A total of 18 candidates were on the ballot, with the main contest a battle between Tinubu from the ruling APC, Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and a surprise contender, the Labour Party’s Peter Obi.

Obi had left the PDP last year after having been Abubakar’s running mate in the 2019 election, which had been won by the incumbent, Muhammadu Buhari.

Buhari, a retired Nigerian army major general, had served as the country’s military head of state from 1983 to 1985, after taking power in a military coup d’état before reinventing himself as a civilian politician and winning the presidency in 2015.

A former governor of Anambra State in southeastern Nigeria, Obi galvanized social media during the race and would have become the first president of Igbo ethnicity since Nigeria returned to democracy. In a country riven by religious conflicts, Obi is a Christian, while both Tinubu, a Yoruba, and Abubakar, a Fulani, are Muslims.

The results of the election highlight how sharply divided Nigerians remain along religious and ethnic lines. Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, came in first with 36.6 per cent of the vote, followed by Abubakar, who had been governor of Adawama State in the country’s northeast, at close to 29 per cent, and Obi third, with 25.4 per cent. A fourth contender, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party, a Muslim Fulani former governor of Kano State in the north, took 6.23 per cent.

To be elected, a presidential candidate must receive a plurality of the overall votes and more than 25 per cent of the votes in at least 24 states and the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. Tinubu satisfied these conditions. In fact, each of the top three candidates secured victory in 12 of the country’s 36 states. Obi scored a major upset by winning Tinubu’s home state. But Tinubu’s victory is being challenged in court by Abubakar and Obi.

In the southeast, Tinubu faces separatist agitation, a highly sensitive issue in Nigeria where around one million people died in the three-year Biafran civil war in the late 1960s between federal forces and Igbo secessionists. Not surprisingly, some in the southeast were disappointed that Peter Obi lost. Keeping this huge country together is no easy task.