Tinubu Faces Many Obstacles

  By Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

There are many challenges confronting Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who was inaugurated as president of Nigeria on May 29. He won a tightly contested election that was not only acrimonious but exposed the ethnic and religious divisions that have lingered throughout the country, one split between a largely Muslim north and mainly Christian south, and also comprising hundreds of different ethnic groups.

A total of 18 candidates were on the ballot, with the main contest a battle between Tinubu from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and the Labour Party’s Peter Obi.

THREE-WAY SPLIT

Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, came in first with 36.6 per cent of the vote, followed by Abubakar, who had been governor of Adawama State in the country’s northeast, at close to 29 per cent, and with Obi third, with 25.4 per cent. A fourth contender, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party, a former governor of Kano State in the north, took 6.23 per cent.

Abubakar and Kwankwaso are Fulani Muslims from the north, and Tinubu a Yoruba Muslim from the southwest. Obi, an Igbo from the southeast and a former governor of Anambra State, was the only major Christian in the race. Had he won, he would have become the first president of Igbo ethnicity since Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999.

To win in the first round, a candidate had to gain the largest number of votes nationwide and at least 25 per cent of the votes in two-thirds of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. Tinubu satisfied these conditions. In fact, each of the top three candidates secured victory in 12 of the country’s 36 states. Obi scored a major upset by winning Tinubu’s home state.

Tinubu would most likely have lost the election had it been held last year, before the PDP split three ways, since Obi and Kwankwaso are former members. The combined total of their vote plus that of Abubakar was about 60 per cent.

MUSLIM TICKET

Tinubu took a risk in his own bid. Instead of choosing a running mate from one of the Christian minorities, he picked a northern Kanuri Muslim, Kashim Shettima, a former governor of Borno state, not wanting to alienate the huge Muslim voting bloc in the north. He did draw the ire of most Christians by having a Muslim-Muslim ticket.

The election was widely criticized for targeted violence, significant voter disenfranchisement, and outright vote manipulation and vote buying in some states. There was also various controversies. Before the vote Tinubu denied various allegations of links to narcotics and corruption.

International observer missions from the Washington-based International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute, who deployed a joint international election observation mission to Nigeria, described the process as lacking transparency. So did a European Union team. Tinubu’s victory is being challenged in court by Abubakar and Obi.

Maybe that’s why, although more than 93 million Nigerians were registered to vote, only about 25 million cast ballots — at 26.7 per cent, it was the lowest participation rate in the country’s history.

BALLOONING DEBT

One in three Nigerians are unemployed and 96 million live below the poverty line of US$1.90 per day, while inflation stands at a record 22 per cent. As the economy suffers, hundreds of Nigerians have decided to leave the country in a punishing brain drain after finishing their studies. One of the new government’s most urgent tasks will be to tackle insecurity, which has resurfaced in full force since April.

The oil-rich nation also faces the challenge of swapping crude oil worth billions of dollars for gasoline, which it then needs to subsidize for its domestic market. This has contributed to ballooning debt. At his inaugural, Tinubu said the decades-long subsidy on petroleum products was being scrapped.

In the southeast, Tinubu faces separatist agitation, a highly sensitive issue in Nigeria where around one million people died in the three-year Biafran civil war in the late 1960s between federal forces and Igbo secessionists. Some in the southeast were disappointed that Igbo presidential candidate Peter Obi lost.

Can Tinubu overcome all this? It won’t be easy.