Iran Remains Behind Much of the Trouble in the Middle East

By Henry Srebrnik, [Halifax] Chronicle Herald

Since the outbreak of the Gaza war, Iran has led a regional and international diplomatic effort to mobilize support for Hamas and reach an end to the fighting in order to preserve what the organization achieved.

Iran presents the current situation as manifestation of Israel’s weakness, rather than strength, and a change in the regional balance of power to Israel’s detriment and to the benefit of the Palestinians and the “axis of resistance.”

So far, active involvement by Hezbollah, on Israel’s north, has not occurred. That could be detrimental, Tehran believes. It might endanger the strategic capabilities of the Shiite organization, which is considered a major arm of Iran’s, and lead to damage to Iran itself. For Iran’s top leaders, especially Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the utmost priority is the survival of the Islamic Republic.

Any major attack against an American-backed Israel could exact a heavy toll on Iran, so it will refrain from direct action and will continue to rely on its proxies, as it has done so far. Hence the decision by Yemen’s Houthis to fire at vessels in the entrance to the Red Sea, disrupting maritime traffic, and the attacks by Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Syria on American troops.

Under both Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Iranian-backed proxy forces have regularly attacked U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria with rockets, mortars and drones. The U.S. response has usually been narrowly targeted airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias in those countries.

At the same time, Iran continues to stockpile highly enriched uranium which the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has acknowledged has no plausible civilian purpose. On Nov. 15, the IAEA issued a scathing report on Iran’s nuclear program. Over the previous two-and-a-half months, Iran added 6.7 kilograms to its illicit stockpile of 60 per cent enriched uranium. It now has at least 128.3 kilograms that can be quickly enriched to bomb-grade levels sufficient to build three nuclear bombs.

Moreover, the IAEA is convinced Iran has undeclared nuclear material at four sites. Iran, the IAEA report stated, isn’t cooperating with inspectors or investigations of its nuclear operations and does not intend to cooperate in the future. The Iranian regime is barring nuclear inspectors from its nuclear installations for political reasons, while it develops and tests a variety of ballistic and cruise missiles. This elicited no Western response.

And as Iran continues to expand its production of the fuel and missiles necessary for the assembly and delivery of nuclear weapons, it funds, trains and arms its allies. Iran provides roughly $100 million a year to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and $700 million a year to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles of all ranges and payloads can decimate Israel’s strategic and military infrastructure, as well as its economy. The group’s short-range missiles are sufficient to enable its battle-hardened well-armed and trained Radwan Brigade to invade the Western Galilee.

Iran has built up Hezbollah not merely in view of its hoped-for defeat of the Jewish state, but to dissuade Israel from dealing with an incipient Iranian nuclear breakout. Israel is preoccupied with its war on Hamas without a clear effective strategy to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Iran has effectively deterred the United States and even Israel from going to war over its sponsorship of terrorism or over its nuclear program. If Israel can defeat Hamas, that would neutralize Iran’s major proxy in the Sunni world and set back its wider regional offensive. Conversely, if Hamas retains its military capacity, that would be a major win for Iran and its “axis of resistance.”