Israel Caught Between Russia and America

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, N.B.] Telegraph-Journal

Russia’s pro-Palestinian stance has underscored a shift in relations between Moscow and Jerusalem since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel.

For two decades under Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Russia and Israel pursued a delicate balance. While the two countries often found themselves on opposite sides of the geopolitical spectrum, Israel sought to be on good terms with Russia.

Russia is an ally of Syria, so Israel did not want to accidentally collide with Moscow while Israel pursued its own conflict with Damascus. Israel was also careful not to antagonize Moscow because of Russia’s ties to Iran.

As for Putin, he also saw in Israel a partner in keeping alive the memory of the Second World War, the monumental historical event around which Russian nationalism now revolves.

“It was never an alliance, but there was always a strategic understanding. Both countries needed each other,” indicated Vera Michlin-Shapir, of King’s College London and a former official at Israel’s national security council, who specializes in Russian foreign policy.

However, Russia’s subsequent invasion of Ukraine placed Israel in a bind.

“The two countries’ ties are absolutely at the lowest point since the fall of the Soviet Union,” according to Nikolay Kozhanov, a former Russian diplomat in Tehran and now an associate professor at Qatar University.

But can Israel put all its eggs in the American basket? As Israel’s war in Gaza proceeds, more opinion pieces appear in the New York Times and Washington Post painting Israel as an aggressor destroying helpless Palestinians.

An article by Shalom Lipner in the Dec. 29 Foreign Affairs warns Netanyahu about “How Israel could lose America.” Since these publications represent the points of view from the American ruling establishment, it’s something Israel needs to worry about.

The United States is in a position similar to that of Britain during the pre-1948 Palestine Mandate period, needing to consider the wider foreign policy implications of how it deals with the Gaza war, since it’s a global power and can’t let Israel derail relations with the far larger Arab and Muslim world.

This makes it a perfect storm for Israel. The Ukraine war has led to Russian gains in the Arab world, hence distancing Israel’s relationship with Moscow. The war against Hamas now also strains Israeli relations with the U.S, which worries that it can’t support Israel too strongly or it will lose out to Russia elsewhere.

The battle with Hamas has revealed Israel’s political and military dependence on the United States. This is particularly problematic at a time when trends in the United States on matters concerning Israel are not necessarily in Jerusalem’s favour.

The Democratic Party is riven with disagreement over the war, and the younger its supporters, the less they support Israel. The war on Hamas has been a major political problem for President Joe Biden. The base of his party is reeling from dissent within the ranks of Democratic staffers and the party’s left-wing activist base.

Typical is a Jan. 11 letter by the young Thomas Kennedy, an elected Democratic National Committee member from Florida who’s from the progressive wing of the party.

“I am submitting my resignation,” he wrote, “in large part because of the Biden administration’s inexcusable support of Israeli war crimes and the mass killing of Palestinians in Gaza.”

The rising tide in the party is represented by the anti-Israel “Squad,” personified by Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, who has led efforts to pressure Washington to censure Israel “and seek accountability for grave violations of human rights.”

What will the party’s left say now that Israel has been accused of genocide at the International Court of Justice?

In that regard, it’s interesting that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Jan. 11 offered some limited praise for Netanyahu, while appearing to compare Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Lavrov indicated that Moscow is pleased Netanyahu has not criticized Russia for its ongoing war.

“Despite condemnations from around the world, including of course Israel, he finds himself in quite a serious situation, that he never dared to make any statements against Russia.”

Remember, Russia too has been accused of genocide and war crimes, and the International Criminal Court issued a warrant in March for Putin’s arrest.

To what extent might it be wise for Israel to spread the risk and establish economic and perhaps also security relationships with other key powers? Should Israel preserve what is left of the relationship with Russia in an effort to moderate Moscow’s attitude?

And if it does, what risks happening to the Jewish state’s relationship to the United States?

Israel is at a strategic crossroads. Where it chooses to go will have far-reaching implications for its future international relationships.