Tajikistan - Poor and Repressive Country

Henry Srebrnik, [Summerside, PEI] Journal Pioneer

Central Asia is usually defined as consisting of five republics of the former Soviet Union: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.  It is a huge part of the world: 4,003,451 square kilometres, with a total population of about 66 million.

All of these countries have struggled since acquiring independence in 1991 and, though some are more repressive than others, in none can we say that democracy has taken root.

With an area of 143,100 square kilometres, Tajikistan is the smallest of the five, and its 8.2 million people are also the poorest. It borders Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China. Mountains cover more than 90 per cent of the country. 

Prior to their absorption into the Russian Empire in the 19^th century, the Tajiks were governed by two Uzbeki entities, the Emirate of Bukhara and Khanate of Kokand. 

Along with other Muslim peoples in the region, the Tajiks fought against Russian, and later Soviet, rule, as part of the Basmachi movement, but were eventually subdued. In 1929 the Soviets created a separate Tajik Soviet Socialist Republic. There was some economic and social progress during this time, but the republic remained poor.

Independence in 1991 brought about civil war between militias representing different clans and regions of the country, and resulted in the deaths of over 50,000 people, with another 1.2 million becoming refugees or internally displaced persons.

Tajikistan is largely dependent on agriculture, with cotton the most important crop. The economy has never really recovered from the civil war, and poverty is widespread. State-funded educational and medical services were ended in 2003. Almost half of GDP is earned by migrants working abroad.

Emomali Rahmonov took over as head of state in 1992 and won election as Tajikistan’s first president in 1994. A ceasefire with the United Tajik Opposition – an alliance of Islamic and nationalist forces -- went into effect that year and a formal peace brokered by the United Nations in 1997 brought a final end to hostilities. 

The deal guaranteed the opposition, led by the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP), 30 per cent of government positions. The IRP for many religious nationalists was seen as a preferable alternative to former Communist apparatchiks like the president – who got the message. He changed his last name to Rahmon, to de-Russify it, and undertook a pilgrimage to Mecca.

In 1999 Rahmon was re-elected for a second term with 96 per cent of the vote in what was clearly a fixed election. He won a third term in 2006 and a fourth in 2013 (this time with 83.9 per cent) in elections which international observers said were neither free nor fair. 

Rahmon’s People’s Democratic Party also won 55 of the 63 legislative seats in the Majlisi Namoyandagon (Assembly of Representatives) elections in 2010. The IRP and Communists each won two.

On March 1, Tajikistan held new legislative elections. This time the People’s Democratic Party won 57 seats; while the Communists held their two seats, the IRP was shut out.

Monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe said that half the votes they saw being counted should have been thrown out. They also reported ballot-box stuffing and intimidation. IRP leader Muhiddin Kabiri refused to recognize the outcome, while Communist Party leader Shodi Shabdolov called the election “a political farce.” 

The IRP has been the victim of violent attacks by thugs on party meetings, accusations of polygamy, closure of multiple offices, and the enlistment of former members to record video messages warning people not to join the party.

Meanwhile, on March 5, Umarali Kuvatov, leader of a Tajik movement called Group 24, who fled the country in 2012, was assassinated in Istanbul. His movement, a vocal critic of the Rahmon government, was declared an “extremist organization” and banned last October. Two other members were sentenced by a Tajikistan court to 16 ½ years in prison each on March 13.

Though the civil war ended some two decades ago, younger insurgents, some with contacts to Salafi Islamists outside the country, remain a problem. Along with poverty, unemployment, and corruption under an increasingly autocratic regime, none of this bodes well for the country.