Professor Henry Srebrnik

Professor Henry Srebrnik

Monday, October 19, 2015

Russia Expands Role in Syria


Henry Srebrnik, [Summerside, PEI] Pioneer Journal
 
In the past few weeks, Russia has expanded its military presence in Syria, sending weapons, tanks, air missile systems and planes to support the Bashar Al-Assad regime. 

It is now engaging in bombing runs itself and Russian warships in the Caspian Sea have also fired cruise missiles at Islamic State (ISIS) strongholds.

As well, Russia, Syria, Iran and Iraq have recently created an information center in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad to coordinate the fight against the Islamic State extremists now controlling much of Iraq and Syria. 

The establishment of a coordination centre to fight ISIS will be welcome news to Syria’s beleaguered president, Bashar al-Assad, who has suffered reverses lately.

The fact that Putin is helping Syria in fighting ISIS should come as no surprise. Iran and Iraq, too, are battling ISIS, so the fact that they are now going to help coordinate the fight is also not unexpected. 

The old Soviet Union had a long-time relationship with Syria. Their alliance was strengthened during the Suez crisis of 1956, which brought the two countries together in backing Egypt. Syria, at that time, had the largest Communist Party in the Arab world. 

The alliance was upgraded and formalized in the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation signed by Hafez al-Assad (Bashar’s father) in Moscow in 1980. 

Russia has been Syria’s major arms supplier for decades, accounting now for over three quarters of Syria’s arms purchases.

In addition, Russia’s only Mediterranean naval base for its Black Sea Fleet, obtained in 1971, is located in the Syrian port of Tartus. Given that Russia’s Mediterranean fleet is so distant from home, this base is crucial to Russian military interests. 

The base has come under threat as the rebels have advanced towards it. Fears of a collapse, or a coup, that might in the worst case deprive Russia of its naval base, the only military facility Russia still controls outside the former Soviet Union, are genuine.

In a speech before the UN General Assembly Sept. 28, the Russian leader extolled Assad. “We think it’s an enormous mistake to refuse to cooperate with the Syrian government,” said Putin. “No one but Assad’s forces are truly fighting the Islamic State.”

The alternative to Assad is radical Sunni forces, who are trying to increase their influence among the many Muslims living in Russia. Putin worries about a rise in Islamist terrorism in Russia as well. 

“More than 2,000 fighters from Russia and ex-Soviet republics are in the territory of Syria,” he told American journalist Charlie Rose on the television program “60 Minutes” Sept. 27. “There is a threat of their return to us. So, instead of waiting for their return, we are better off fighting them on Syrian territory.”

The U.S. is no doubt very unhappy about these developments, but given America’s lack of success so far, it’s hard for them to complain. After all, Barack Obama famously blinked, two years ago, when Assad used chemical weapons against his own people and thus crossed the president’s “red line.” 

And the United States has thus far been unable to make any headway in finding its own allies in Syria. It seems Syrians either support Assad or one of the radical Islamist groups fighting to overthrow him.

This is all part of Putin’s attempt to regain a role for Russia as a power to be reckoned with and showing that he backs words with deeds -- as opposed to the United States, which for years has called on Assad to go, yet has done little about it. 

And should Assad in the end be eased out as part of a deal in which Russia will be a key broker, Putin wants to be able to make that deal from a position of strength, not weakness.

No comments: