Professor Henry Srebrnik

Professor Henry Srebrnik

Monday, May 16, 2016

A November Election for the Ages

Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian
 
Donald Trump has faced more media criticism than any other candidate in recent memory. Yet he beat Ted Cruz and John Kasich in the Republican primary in Indiana on May 3 and is all but assured of his party’s nomination.
He also bested all of the 15 other entries that started the marathon back in the fall. That field included Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, who had piles of cash from the “donor” class.
But the talking heads in their silos on CNN, MSNBC and elsewhere immediately announced that Trump will lose to Hillary Clinton in November. They’re sure of this. The mainstream media, especially the Boston Globe, New York Times, and Washington Post, concur, and remain positively vitriolic in their denunciations of Trump.
The fact that they’ve been wrong all along about this race doesn’t matter, because they have the Ivy League diplomas and go to the right Washington cocktail parties.
They’re forgetting, but Trump will remind America, that Clinton has now been around for almost four decades, starting with Bill Clinton’s victories in Arkansas, serving as an enabler for her sexual harasser husband. And that she is the candidate of the financial establishment on Wall Street.
Certainly Clinton is more vulnerable than the “punditocracy” thinks. An April Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll found that just 20 per cent of independents viewed Clinton positively, compared with 62 per cent who viewed her negatively.
And in a Washington Post-ABC News survey taken in March, only 37 per cent of respondents said they found Clinton honest and trustworthy, while 59 per cent said they did not. She has a scandal-ridden past.
It’s possible that more Americans hate Clinton than hate Trump – and that includes a lot of women, holding down horrible jobs while their unemployed husbands sit at home. These are not the older women who have done well for themselves, even if not as well as men, since the 1990s.
Will Republicans in November be able to bring themselves to vote for Clinton, after despising her for decades? Hard to believe.
Remember this: Clinton was unable to beat a 74 year old Brooklyn socialist in Midwestern "redneck" Indiana and West Virginia in the Democratic primaries of May 3 and May 10, because so many young Democrats, including women, prefer Bernie Sanders.
I’m not sure she will get their vote in November either. They might sit it out. (Many Republicans will do the same, with Trump as their candidate.)
This will be an election between two nominees who between them are hated by the vast majority of Americans. A CNN poll released May 4 showed that 51 per cent of those backing Clinton said it comes from their opposition to Trump, while 57 per cent of those supporting Trump said it was driven by opposition to Clinton.
But win or lose, I’m sure Trump will do better than Mitt Romney did in 2012. Romney was so delusional he actually thought he would win! Sell this guy a bridge! Trump will also do better than the McCain-Palin duo did in 2008.
“He ridicules the leftist propaganda machine, its brainless Hollywood cohorts, and their power-hungry political enablers,” writes Julian Wan in “Trump Isn’t Hitler, He’s Galileo,” in the Daily Caller of May 3. “He openly mocks neoconservative warmongers and corporatist profiteers.”
Bill Clinton during the 1992 campaign famously told a voter that “I feel your pain.” But now it’s Trump, not Hillary Clinton, who is using that message effectively.
Ironically, in this coming contest it’s the Republican who is the populist, the Democrat the ultimate insider. This election will be one for the ages, no doubt of it.

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