Hezbollah is Losing Grip on Lebanon

By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, NB] Telegraph-Journal

More than a million of Lebanon’s five million citizens recently came out into the streets to express their anger at a fossilized political class that has run the country into the ground.

Since Oct. 17, protests across Lebanon have challenged the political status quo, in a country which has always been run by the country’s ruling sectarian-based oligarchy. It was ignited by a government plan to tax WhatsApp calls. 

The mass demonstrations have brought the country to a halt, closing schools and banks, and blocking roads and highways.

To make things worse, Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Oct. 29 ended up resigning, though still governing as a caretaker.

The country’s political system is constitutionally divided along sectarian lines to ensure the inclusion of Lebanon’s 18 recognized ethnic and religious communities.

As a result, Lebanon’s various religious groups established their own parties and patronage networks, creating a widespread system of corruption and nepotism.

Protesters want a government of non-partisan experts to lead Lebanon out of its deepening economic and financial crisis, secure basic services such as water and electricity, and create a new, non-sectarian electoral law. 

The Shiite group Hezbollah, which is both a political party and an armed militia, is a power broker in the country and enmeshed in its governing institutions.

But if it fails to adapt to the new situation it could potentially risk the environment that has allowed the group three decades to confront Israel and expand its regional activities. 

The fact that protests are occurring in even traditional Hezbollah strongholds such as the Bekaa Valley and South Lebanon should be a cause for alarm for the group.

Hezbollah in 2016, with the tacit approval of Iran and the United States, secured a deal that brought General Michel Aoun, a Maronite Christian, to the presidency; Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, to the premiership; and made Nabih Berri, a Druze, parliamentary speaker.

In return, it agreed not to hinder the ability of Aoun and Hariri and to lead the government.

Is this agreement now coming undone? Though this is hardly the first time Lebanon has been convulsed by civil conflicts, what’s different is that the current grassroots uprising of younger people is not sectarian. Shia, Sunni, Christian and Druze appear to be coming together.

They have been flying Lebanese flags, rather than those of sects and parties. And they have been targeting those they regard as corrupt within their own communities.

Both Maronite Christian Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai and Sunni Muslim Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Derianhas, have called for a change in government to include qualified technocrats.

“The country's situation cannot withstand another day of delays,” Al-Rai stated.

Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, the odd man out, may be losing control of a significant part of the Shiite constituency as these protests continue.

Nasrallah has asked supporters to stay off the streets and suggested that the turmoil was instigated by foreign countries.

Still, while his Shiite supporters may not approve of his dealings within the Lebanese political system, they remain supportive of “the resistance project” against Israel.

Meanwhile, Lebanese leaders have yet to make progress on the formation of a new cabinet, and the crisis deepens.