Is an Entente Between Sudan and South Sudan Possible?

By Henry Srebrnik, [Summerside, PEI] Journal Pioneer

 

Their previous relationship was dominated by civil war and violence. But the overthrow of Sudan’s long-term ruler Omar al-Bashir, recently sentenced to two years in a rehabilitation center over charges of money laundering and corruption, is changing the country’s relationship with South Sudan, which in 2011 extricated itself from Khartoum’s repressive rule.

The two countries have had a very acrimonious relationship, following some four decades of brutal civil war fought between Sudan’s government in the predominantly Muslim, Arabic-speaking north and the Christian rebels belonging to various ethnic groups in the south.

Yet when Sudan's new prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok, arrived in the capital of neighboring South Sudan in September, he expressed how “very delighted” he was.

Hamdok leads a transitional government in Sudan formed after the overthrow of al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan from 1989 to April 2019. And it seems the relationship may be thawing, now that South Sudan is itself in turmoil.

In 2013, South Sudan was plunged into a civil war pitting soldiers loyal to President Salva Kiir against fighters who support former vice president, Riek Machar.

South Sudan has 64 ethnic groups, the largest being the Dinkas, who constitute about 35 per cent of the population and predominate in government. The second largest are the Nuers, at more than 15 per cent.

It started after Kiir, a Dinka, removed Machar, who is Nuer. as his deputy as a result of a power struggle.

When fighting broke out, people fled to their respective groups for security.

Some 400,000 people have been killed in the violence and more than a third of the country’s 12 million people have fled their homes. 

Bashir meddled in the conflict, backing Machar’s rebel group and others opposing the South Sudanese government. In turn, rebel groupings inside Sudan received aid from South Sudan.

In particular, the Nuba Mountains area, located in Sudan’s far south, has historically and culturally had strong ties to what is now South Sudan, and the Juba government supported the Nuba rebels in their fight against Bashir.

Sudan’s government had already started mediating between Kiir and Machar, who signed a peace agreement in September 2018 and agreed to form a transitional government of national unity. But it has not been implemented.

Machar, who lives in exile in Khartoum, has asked for more time to discuss security and state boundary arrangements. Both Kiir and Machar agreed that there were “critical tasks” related to the deal that remained incomplete.

Sudan and South Sudan, despite their past, need each other. They are linked by their reliance on oil. While the oil fields are largely located in landlocked South Sudan, the only way to get oil out is via Sudan’s pipeline to Port Sudan on the Red Sea.

If South Sudan can resume its oil exports, it would be a win for both nations. Sudan is suffering a serious economic crisis – it was rising food prices and high inflation that finally pushed Bashir out of office. 

As for South Sudan, it is one of the poorest countries in the world and the civil war has ravaged what little economic activity took place when it became independent. Is a rapprochement possible?