Iran and America: What's Next?

By Henry Srebrnik, [Summerside, PEI] Pioneer Journal

Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Quds Force, a part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was killed in an American drone strike in Baghdad on Jan. 3, sending shockwaves through the Middle East.

What led up to this and how will it affect the situation in the Middle East?

The Islamic Republic and its proxies in Iraq and Lebanon have been, in the past two months, the target of massive demonstrations against the various Iran-backed militias, especially the Popular Mobilization Forces that virtually control Iraq. 

Iranian consulates have been burned even in the Shiite holy cities of Najaf and Karbala in Iraq.

To deflect popular anger away from Iran, Tehran tried to goad the United States into action, via attacks in the Persian Gulf and against Saudi Arabia, and against U.S. forces, carrying out eleven attacks on American bases since October.

On Dec. 27, Kata’ib Hezbollah, a major militia in the larger pro-Iranian conglomerate, attacked an American base and killed an American contractor. The intention of this killing was presumably to push the United States into a retaliatory strike that would defuse the anti-Iranian demonstrations in Iraq.

But they didn’t foresee the level of retaliation – this was a step too far. U.S. President Donald Trump killed Soleimani as well as Kata’ib Hezbollah commander Abu Hadi al-Muhandis, together with 13 others, as they left Baghdad airport.

Apart from his military skills as a commander, Soleimani gained Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s esteem and trust. This put him in a unique position of power and influence, far above his official post. 

He positioned himself as a symbol of the revolution who worked tirelessly to promote Iran’s status as a regional hegemon. By implementing the “axis of resistance,” he established himself as the Supreme Leader’s top confidant.

Soleimani played an important role in developing the IRGC’s non-conventional conception of war, creating an extensive infrastructure, organized in flexible frameworks that corresponded to shifting local circumstances and changes in the nature of warfare. 

He expanded existing groups, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and, to a lesser extent, Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad into formidable war machines possessing hundreds of thousands of missiles and rockets.

He also transformed the Houthis into a deadly organization that keeps Yemen at war and poses a danger to Saudi Arabia.

Largely thanks to Soleimani, around 200,000 militia personnel are available to Tehran between the Iraq-Iran border and the Mediterranean Sea. These forces have accurate missiles, and good intelligence coverage across the area. His death is truly a blow.

Iran probably assumed that in a presidential election year, Trump would not dare risking a major war. 

The Iranians did not believe the U.S. would decisively respond, as Secretary of Defence Mike Pompeo had threatened. 

They had seen national security adviser John Bolton and other Iran hawks come and go and had judged Trump to be an isolationist. They miscalculated and were caught by surprise.

Iran would like to see a Democrat win the 2020 presidential election and may take steps to help secure that outcome. After all, “meddling” in American contests, if one is to believe the Democratic Party, seems to have become a favourite pastime of authoritarian regimes.