Can Libya's Civil War Be Resolved?

By Henry Srebrnik, [Summerside, PEI] Journal Pioneer

On Jan. 19, Germany hosted an international conference in Berlin, including representatives from the United States, Russia, Turkey, France, Italy, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, to bring an end to the ongoing conflict in Libya.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, France’s Emmanuel Macron, and Egypt’s Abdel Fatah el-Sisi joined a dozen or so others, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo representing the United States, in declaring an intention to end foreign interference in Libya’s internal affairs.

The Berlin Conference suggested that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and United Nations Special Representative for Libya Ghasssan Salamé, the joint hosts, by focusing on the external, rather than the Libyan, actors, demanded that the various outside powers now involved abide by the international arms embargo on Libya, in place since 2011, or reveal their hypocrisy in supporting resumed fighting.

The Berlin Process, as it is being referred to, calls for a cease-fire, for the UN-imposed arms embargo on that country to be honored and for those using proxies in this conflict in pursuing their interests to desist.

“We commit to refraining from interference in the armed conflict or in the internal affairs of Libya and urge all international actors to do the same,” stated the communiqué, in language all participants endorsed in supposed good faith.

The Berlin Conference is the most serious attempt in years to address the international factors behind Libya’s woes. And the logic of excluding the Libyans stemmed from the reality that the external actors are the ones providing the sophisticated weaponry and drones, mercenaries, and troops that allow each Libyan side to believe it might overwhelm the other side militarily, obviating the need for hard political compromise.

At President Putin’s insistence, Fayez al-Sarraj, head of Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), and General Khalifa Haftar, the self-styled head of the Libyan National Army besieging Tripoli since April, were both present in the German capital. But, by design, they did not attend the conference nor meet together separately. The Germans and UN officials briefed both on the conference’s outcome.

While Prime Minister al-Sarraj seems to be playing along with the decisions made in Berlin, Haftar may require sustained pressure to reconsider his vision of conquering Tripoli, capital of the rival GNA, by force. He has been the main beneficiary of military support from external forces.

Haftar had already rejected an earlier Russian-Turkish ceasefire proposal, one that al-Sarraj accepted, even though much of the general’s recent success is due to support from Russia.

Haftar also seems to have missed the opportunity to reduce the momentum for the ongoing Turkish “neo-Ottoman” military build-up in Libya since December on behalf of the Tripoli government, in order to counter Moscow.

Russia and some African leaders seem to view Haftar as a vehicle for reversing the “humiliation” of the 2011 overthrow of Moammar Gadhafi. And Egypt and the UAE have viewed him as their best bet against the Islamists they associate with the GNA.

While supporting opposing sides in the Libya conflict, Turkey and Russia have tried to fill the vacuum created by the U.S. absence. Meanwhile the civil war, now into its ninth year, continues.